How we make predictions

Model changelog

Product and UX changes are at /updates. This page tracks model retrains and architecture changes only.

The version currently stamped into every published probability is 1.0.0. Each row links to its full release notes.

VersionDateSummaryBrier at releaseNotes
1.0.0current2026-05-24Initial published version. Calibrated ensemble of FIFA-Elo (Model 1), Dixon-Coles (Model 2), and hierarchical Bayesian Poisson (Model 3), with per-class isotonic calibration split across friendly / qualifier / tournament tiers. Per-player anytime-scorer (Model 5) on top of the Model 4 composite rating, with the Model 4b goalkeeper rating and the Model 18 starting-GK defence offset on the predict path.Model 1.0.0 — initial published version

Versions follow semver. Major bumps mean an architecture or ensemble-composition change; minors mean a new component or a materially different training procedure; patches are retrains or calibrator refits on the same code. Every probability the site publishes carries the version that produced it — visible on the snapshot chip next to each page's headline and in the “model inputs” popover.