Prévision en direct

Snapshot · 2026-07-14Model 1.0.0

Qui remporte la Coupe du Monde 2026 ?

Probabilités de victoire pour chaque match et chaque chemin vers la finale. Chaque prévision est notée face au résultat réel.

  • Quand on dit 70%, ça arrive ~70% du temps
  • Mis à jour quotidiennement
  • Noté après chaque résultat
  • Méthodologie publiée intégralement
  • Gratuit à consulter
Voir la prévision complète →Comment fonctionne le modèle →Pourquoi faire confiance aux chiffres →
Knockout stageUse code KNOCKOUT10 for 10% off any Pass. Every match through the final, with penalty shootout probabilities.Get it →

24

perfect calls

57%

of calls rated strong or above

86%

of winners correctly called

In 71 matches with a clear winner, the model picked the right side 61 times

0

missed calls

Across 95 matches, the model was never completely wrong about a result

Prochain match

EnglandvsArgentina

Wed 15 Jul · 15:00 local · Atlanta

Standard Pass pour les probabilités

Ouvrir le suivi en direct →

Bilan

Comment se comportent les prévisionsWithin expectations

Verrouillées avant le coup d'envoi, notées après le coup de sifflet final.

Bilan complet →
24 Nailed it30 Strong32 Expected9 Surprise
Bosnia and Herzegovina 1–4 SwitzerlandNailed it

Rated at 69% when markets had 62%

Beats markets
Netherlands 5–1 SwedenStrong read

Rated at 61% when markets had 57%

Beats markets
Haiti 0–1 ScotlandNailed it

Rated at 69% when markets had 66%

Beats markets
Spain 0–0 Cape VerdeTough call

Rated the result at just 10%

Fri 10 JulStrong readFiche complète →
Thu 9 JulWithin expectationsFiche complète →
Tue 7 JulWithin expectationsFiche complète →

95 sur 100 matchs notés

Matchs du jour

Wed 15 Jul

1 match

Calendrier complet →

Match signals

30 fixtures

Which team has the edge? A quick read of model predictions, form, momentum, and match conditions for every upcoming fixture.

Wide view of SoFi Stadium during a 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage match between Switzerland and Bosnia and Herzegovina, the scoreboard reading 0-0 above a packed crowd.

À la une

Path to the final: every team's bracket mapped

The knockout bracket is set. We traced every team's path from the Round of 32 through to the final. Argentina's route to the title match could avoid every top-10 side until the semifinal. Austria's path runs through Spain, Portugal, and France before a potential final against Argentina. The bracket halves are wildly unbalanced: five of the eight highest-rated teams are crammed into the top half, guaranteeing a bloodbath. Here is the full map.

The interior of SoFi Stadium three hours before a 2026 FIFA World Cup match, the central scoreboard reading FIFA World Cup 2026 above an empty pitch.

À la une

What 54 World Cup matches taught the model

The group stage is almost over. Fifty-four matches graded, every probability scored. The model's overall Brier is 0.541, better than its own pre-tournament backtest of 0.572. But that headline masks a rougher truth: a brutal opening week, a draw blind spot the calibrator never saw coming, and heavy favourites who kept stumbling. Here is the full scorecard, the experiments we ran mid-tournament, the results that survived testing, and the ones that didn't.

À la une

Every player rated, every substitute mapped: deep match visualization is live

Every fixture page now has a deep interactive visualization: starting XIs, scoring threat, player ratings, defensive shape, synergy lines, and squad-depth analysis. Click any player, swap them for their real bench alternative, and watch the model recalculate. France's most irreplaceable player is not Mbappe. Argentina get better when Otamendi sits. The numbers are all here.

Principaux prétendants · probabilité du modèle

Tableau complet →
Spain#1
17.2%
Argentina#2
15.9%
Brazil#3
12.9%
Portugal#4
9.3%
France#5
8.7%
England#6
7.0%

Phase de groupes

Group D is the tightest race — United States at 35%, Turkey at 24%

Aperçu complet des groupes →

Phase à élimination

Spain leads the field at 17.2%, narrowly ahead of Argentina (15.9%)

Favoris tour par tour →

Derniers articles

Post1 Jul 2026

July 1: France demolish Sweden, Haaland rescues Norway, Mexico end a 40-year drought

R32 Day 3 delivered three comfortable results after Day 2's chaos. France dismantled Sweden 3-0 (Mbappe 45', 74', Barcola 53'), giving Mbappe 9 World Cup knockout goals, a new all-time record. Norway beat Ivory Coast 2-1 thanks to Haaland's 86th-minute winner, Norway's first-ever World Cup knockout win. Mexico beat Ecuador 2-0 at the Azteca for their first knockout victory in 40 years. The model called France (9.1%) and Norway (0.9%) correctly. Mexico (0.4%) was the miss: a near coin-flip the model gave to Ecuador.

Post30 Jun 2026

June 30: Paraguay eliminate Germany, Martinelli rescues Brazil, Morocco outlast the Netherlands

Three Round of 32 matches, two penalty shootouts, one 96th-minute winner. Paraguay, who lost 1-4 to the USA in the group stage and scored just 2 goals in 3 matches, knocked out four-time champions Germany on penalties (1-1, 4-3 pens). Brazil survived Japan thanks to Gabriel Martinelli's stoppage-time winner (2-1). Morocco equalized in the 91st minute against the Netherlands and won in a shootout (1-1, 3-2 pens). The model favoured Germany (4.8%) and had Brazil as marginal favourites (13.3%). It called Brazil correctly. Germany was the tournament's biggest R32 miss so far.

Post29 Jun 2026

Four models are better than three

The ensemble just got a fourth model. A small neural network that learns team-vs-team interactions the linear models miss. It passed an 8-fold backtest, improving the ensemble's calibration by 0.74 percentage points and its Brier score by 16 basis points. Here is what it is, why it works, and what it cost to get right.

Post29 Jun 2026

June 29: Brazil face Japan, Germany meet Paraguay

The knockout round opened last night: Canada 1-0 South Africa, Eustaquio in the 92nd minute, the model's first knockout call correct at 50.9%. Today brings Brazil vs Japan at NRG Stadium in Houston (model: 49.5% vs 22.9%, Elo gap 64) and Germany vs Paraguay at Gillette Stadium in Boston (52.5% vs 19.9%, Elo gap 103). Brazil's high press meets Japan's low block. Germany enter on a loss to Ecuador. Paraguay qualified with just 2 goals in 3 matches. If it goes to penalties, Germany's record (6 of 7 shootouts won) is the best of any remaining team.

Post28 Jun 2026

Group stage scorecard: grading all 72 predictions

The group stage is done and every prediction is on the record. Across 72 matches, the model averaged a Brier score of 0.516, with 57% of predictions graded A or A+. Group I (France's group) and Group J (Argentina's group) were the easiest to read. Group H (Spain, Uruguay, Cape Verde) was the hardest, anchored by the Spain 0-0 Cape Verde opener. Here is the full scorecard, group by group.

Post28 Jun 2026

The final 18: how the group stage ended

The group stage is done. Seventy-two matches, twelve groups, thirty-two teams through. Turkey stunned the USA in stoppage time. Ecuador scored their first goals of the tournament and beat Germany. Dembele hit a hat trick against Norway. Cape Verde qualified with three draws. Messi scored in a seventh consecutive World Cup match, a record. Kane passed Lineker. The model went 10 for 18 on direction across the final three matchdays (mean Brier 0.443), finishing the group stage at 0.516 overall. The draws kept hurting: seven of the eight misses were draws the model did not have as its top call.

Latest

Around the World Cup

NewsFolarin Balogun tells Donald Trump his World Cup red card intervention DID impact USA team before Belgium loss· Daily Mail — FootballNewsFrance vs. Spain, 2026 World Cup semifinals: Match thread and discussion· Stars and Stripes FCNewsWorld Cup Watch Thread: Semi Finals | France vs Spain· Royal Blue MerseyNewsFrance v Spain - who would England rather face in the World Cup final?· Daily Mirror — FootballNewsEngland captain Harry Kane hits out at ITV interviewer Gabriel Clarke 'trying to create division' between Thomas Tuchel and Jude Bellingham with his questioning at the World Cup· Daily Mail — FootballNewsWhat color jerseys are France and Spain wearing today? World Cup kit reveal· Yahoo Sports AustraliaNewsBrazil’s World Cup Collapse Revives Debate Over Faith and Soccer· Religion UnpluggedNewsEngland World Cup semi-final and final? A reminder of where and when!· Sky Sports — FootballPostJuly 1: France demolish Sweden, Haaland rescues Norway, Mexico end a 40-year droughtPostJune 30: Paraguay eliminate Germany, Martinelli rescues Brazil, Morocco outlast the NetherlandsResearchNeural Poisson: a nonlinear extension of Dixon-ColesModelSpainReach semi-final −11.1pp

Headlines link out to their source. Model moves are changes between our own probability snapshots.

Last 34 days

Biggest probability moves

Compared to model run 34 days ago (2026-05-21).

Spain−11.1pp

Reach semi-final

New result

46.9% → 35.8%

Spain−10.5pp

Reach round of 16

New result

80.3% → 69.8%

Argentina−9.0pp

Reach quarter-final

New result

61.3% → 52.3%

England−9.0pp

Reach quarter-final

New result

47.5% → 38.5%

Argentina−8.8pp

Reach semi-final

New result

46.4% → 37.6%

Spain−8.7pp

Reach quarter-final

New result

56.8% → 48.1%

Tags show the likely driver — a new result, a model update, or knock-on redistribution — not a proven cause.

Joueurs à suivre

Diogo CostaPortugal · GKErling HaalandNorway · FWHarry KaneEngland · FWJude BellinghamEngland · MFJoško GvardiolCroatia · DFKylian MbappéFrance · FWAntonee RobinsonUnited States · DFOusmane DembéléFrance · FWRayan Aït-NouriAlgeria · DFPedriSpain · MF

Parcourir les 1,248 joueurs →

Lisez la recherche ou exploitez les données

Recherche

Comment les chiffres sont produits

Chaque probabilité est publiée avant le coup d'envoi et notée après le résultat. Méthodologie complète et ouverte.

Lire la recherche →

API de données

Construisez sur le modèle

Les mêmes chiffres derrière ce site, disponibles en API et serveur MCP pour l'IA.

  • Prévisions, matchs, effectifs et joueurs
  • Serveur MCP pour agents IA et outils
  • Essai gratuit avec n'importe quelle connexion
Explorer les données →

Les données sportives, les modèles et l'IA devraient appartenir à tous. OnThePitch démocratise l'analytique que les clubs professionnels achètent en privé — données ouvertes, méthodologie publiée, prévision gratuite pour chaque lecteur.

En savoir plus sur OnThePitch →