Live-Prognose
Snapshot · 2026-06-10Model 1.0.0Alle Übersichten, die das Modell erstellt: voraussichtliche Aufstellungen, Gruppensieg-Wahrscheinlichkeiten, der K.-o.-Ausblick und die Turniersieg-Tabelle.
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Tournament outlook
Favourites
Tournament
LIVE
The 2026 World Cup is underway
Favourite
17.5%
About 1 in 6
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Tightest race
Turkey vs United States
Group D — just 3.1pp apart
31% vs 28% to top the group
See group page →
Closest match
Senegal vs Norway
The closest H/A split in the group stage
Open match forecast →
Aktuelle Beiträge und grundlegende Methodik-Dokumente.
Models don't know narratives. They read results, schedules, and xG rates. Here are five places ours diverges most from the consensus, from Ecuador over Germany to Raphinha as the #1 anytime scorer, Iran at 81%, Spain and Argentina pulling away, and the USA as the underdog in every group match at home.
The model's two most likely World Cup winners sit at 17.5% and 16.9%, a gap well inside simulation noise. They get there via opposite paths. Argentina runs through the best defensive rating in the field and a penalty advantage worth 5 percentage points on its own; Spain runs through attacking volume and a Barcelona spine. Both teams' nearest historical analogues exited earlier than expected.
Prediction markets, including Polymarket, consistently compress draw probabilities in World Cup openers. The model disagrees. Here's why the structure of prediction markets makes draws hard to price correctly, and what the numbers say about today's two Group A matches.
The model retrains nightly and its published probabilities move by the hour. The rows it gets graded on do not. Every group-stage forecast froze this morning, at least 24 hours before kickoff; a second freeze pins the published number three hours before each match; both land in public JSON files; and the Internet Archive holds receipts that the numbers came first.
Our model gives Brazil a 50.1% probability of winning their Group C opener against Morocco — essentially a coin-flip between Brazil winning and not-winning. Morocco, the first African nation to reach a World Cup semifinal, is rated far closer to Brazil than most people expect. The group picture tells the rest of the story.
In 1991, six-year-old Luka Modrić became a refugee. In 2018, he dragged a nation of four million to the World Cup final and won the Ballon d'Or. In 2026, at 40, he will captain Croatia one last time — opening against England, the team he beat in that 2018 semifinal. The arc of a career that started in a hotel parking lot in Zadar.
Every fixture page on the site opens with a detailed match preview — predicted formations, key players, strategic factors, and expected scorelines. Here's how we generate them and what data feeds into
Our 2026 FIFA World Cup forecasts come from a statistical prediction model that blends three approaches — an Elo rating system, a Dixon-Coles Poisson goals model, and a hierarchical Poisson model — in
How do we figure out which teams are strongest and most likely to win any given match? Our model considers two main approaches. **Goal-based models** simulate how many goals each side will score, then
Alle Beiträge →Alle Methodikdokumente →
Die 8 Nationen, denen das Modell die höchste Turniersieg-Wahrscheinlichkeit gibt. Klicken Sie auf eine Karte für den vollständigen Kader.
Alle 48 Nationen ansehen →Alle Spieler durchsuchen →
Drei erzählerische Blickwinkel pro Top-Team: Verletzungen, prognostizierte Torschützen, Kadererfahrung.
8 of 26 predicted-squad players play their club football for Barcelona — a single-club spine on the international side.
Squad averages 1.85 xG per match across club football last season — #3 of 20 in the field for attacking pedigree from each player's domestic side (23 of 26 players matched to a known club).
Defending champion — Winner 2022.
38 at kickoff with 198 caps — probably his final World Cup.
Model's top anytime-scorer for the team — 32% probability of scoring at least once, rank #4 of all players.
19 at kickoff — 15 caps — projected on the bench, the squad's youngest pick.
Torn muscle fiber, no expected return. Composite 0.99 — would have been a likely starter.
Defending champion — Winner 2022.
41 at kickoff with 226 caps — probably his final World Cup.
Model's top anytime-scorer for the team — 30% probability of scoring at least once, rank #6 of all players.
Thigh problems, no expected return. Composite 0.94 — would have been a likely starter.
Conceded only 0.44 xG per match across 11 recent internationals — #2 of 35 in the field for defensive solidity.
Stomach problems, no expected return. Composite 0.98 — would have been a likely starter.
40 at kickoff with 124 caps — last World Cup for the #1.
#1 starting-GK rating in the field — 1.00 on club-derived save metrics across 48 teams.
Takes corners, free kicks, and penalties — the team's dead-ball threat.
Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass jedes Team seine Gruppe gewinnt.
Bars are sized relative to each group's leader.
Runde für Runde die Favoriten und die Turniersieg-Wahrscheinlichkeiten des Modells.
Top 4 by tournament probability
Top 8 by tournament probability
Top 2 from each group by group-stage probability (24 of 48)
Per-round Monte Carlo reach-probabilities are a follow-up — the figures above are the model's tournament-winner and group-winner probabilities used as a proxy ordering.