Pronóstico en vivo
Snapshot · 2026-07-14Model 1.0.0¿Quién gana el Mundial 2026?
Probabilidades de victoria para cada partido y cada camino hacia la final. Cada pronóstico se evalúa contra el resultado real.
- Cuando decimos 70%, ocurre ~70% de las veces
- Actualizado diariamente
- Calificado después de cada resultado
- Metodología publicada íntegramente
- Gratis para leer
24
perfect calls
57%
of calls rated strong or above
86%
of winners correctly called
In 71 matches with a clear winner, the model picked the right side 61 times
0
missed calls
Across 95 matches, the model was never completely wrong about a result
Resultados
Cómo van los pronósticosWithin expectations
Fijados antes del inicio, calificados después del pitazo final.
Rated at 69% when markets had 62%
Beats marketsRated at 61% when markets had 57%
Beats marketsRated at 69% when markets had 66%
Beats marketsRated the result at just 10%
95 de 100 partidos calificados
Match signals
30 fixturesWhich team has the edge? A quick read of model predictions, form, momentum, and match conditions for every upcoming fixture.
- South AfricavCanada17 signals11%Signals favour Canada89%
- GermanyvParaguay17 signals78%Signals favour Germany22%
- BrazilvJapan17 signals97%Signals favour Brazil3%
- NetherlandsvMorocco17 signals68%Signals favour Netherlands32%
- FrancevSweden16 signals95%Signals favour France5%
- Ivory CoastvNorway17 signals12%Signals favour Norway88%
- MexicovEcuador17 signals59%Evenly matched41%
- EnglandvDR Congo16 signals92%Signals favour England8%
- BelgiumvSenegal17 signals97%Signals favour Belgium3%
- United StatesvBosnia and Herzegovina17 signals92%Signals favour United States8%
- PortugalvCroatia17 signals97%Signals favour Portugal3%
- SpainvAustria16 signals89%Signals favour Spain11%
- SwitzerlandvAlgeria17 signals97%Signals favour Switzerland3%
- ArgentinavCape Verde17 signals89%Signals favour Argentina11%
- AustraliavEgypt17 signals35%Signals favour Egypt65%
- ColombiavGhana17 signals92%Signals favour Colombia8%
- ParaguayvFrance17 signals16%Signals favour France84%
- CanadavMorocco17 signals17%Signals favour Morocco83%
- BrazilvNorway17 signals82%Signals favour Brazil18%
- MexicovEngland17 signals31%Signals favour England69%
- PortugalvSpain17 signals21%Signals favour Spain79%
- United StatesvBelgium17 signals21%Signals favour Belgium79%
- ArgentinavEgypt17 signals93%Signals favour Argentina7%
- SwitzerlandvColombia17 signals23%Signals favour Colombia77%
- FrancevMorocco17 signals83%Signals favour France17%
- SpainvBelgium16 signals84%Signals favour Spain16%
- NorwayvEngland17 signals15%Signals favour England85%
- ArgentinavSwitzerland17 signals87%Signals favour Argentina13%
- FrancevSpain17 signals48%Evenly matched52%
- EnglandvArgentina18 signals14%Signals favour Argentina86%
Destacado
Path to the final: every team's bracket mapped
The knockout bracket is set. We traced every team's path from the Round of 32 through to the final. Argentina's route to the title match could avoid every top-10 side until the semifinal. Austria's path runs through Spain, Portugal, and France before a potential final against Argentina. The bracket halves are wildly unbalanced: five of the eight highest-rated teams are crammed into the top half, guaranteeing a bloodbath. Here is the full map.
Destacado
What 54 World Cup matches taught the model
The group stage is almost over. Fifty-four matches graded, every probability scored. The model's overall Brier is 0.541, better than its own pre-tournament backtest of 0.572. But that headline masks a rougher truth: a brutal opening week, a draw blind spot the calibrator never saw coming, and heavy favourites who kept stumbling. Here is the full scorecard, the experiments we ran mid-tournament, the results that survived testing, and the ones that didn't.
Destacado
Every player rated, every substitute mapped: deep match visualization is live
Every fixture page now has a deep interactive visualization: starting XIs, scoring threat, player ratings, defensive shape, synergy lines, and squad-depth analysis. Click any player, swap them for their real bench alternative, and watch the model recalculate. France's most irreplaceable player is not Mbappe. Argentina get better when Otamendi sits. The numbers are all here.
Principales favoritos · probabilidad del modelo
Tabla completa →Últimos artículos
Around the World Cup
Headlines link out to their source. Model moves are changes between our own probability snapshots.
Last 34 days
Biggest probability moves
Compared to model run 34 days ago (2026-05-21).
Reach semi-final
New result46.9% → 35.8%
Reach round of 16
New result80.3% → 69.8%
Reach quarter-final
New result61.3% → 52.3%
Reach quarter-final
New result47.5% → 38.5%
Reach semi-final
New result46.4% → 37.6%
Reach quarter-final
New result56.8% → 48.1%
Tags show the likely driver — a new result, a model update, or knock-on redistribution — not a proven cause.
Jugadores a seguir
Explorar los 1,248 jugadores →
Lee la investigación o trabaja con los datos
Investigación
Cómo se hacen los números
Cada probabilidad se publica antes del inicio y se califica después del resultado. Metodología completa y abierta.
API de datos
Construye sobre el modelo
Los mismos números detrás de este sitio, disponibles como API y un servidor MCP para IA.
- Pronósticos, partidos, plantillas y jugadores
- Servidor MCP para agentes de IA y herramientas
- Prueba gratuita con cualquier inicio de sesión
Los datos deportivos, modelos e IA deberían ser para todos. OnThePitch democratiza la analítica que los clubes profesionales compran en privado — datos abiertos, metodología publicada y el pronóstico gratuito para cada lector.