次の試合 · Group A · Matchday 1
Mexico vs South Africa
11 Jun 2026 · Mexico City, Mexico
2026年ワールドカップ開幕戦の無料ライブトラッカーです。公開済みの試合前確率はキャリブレーション済みアンサンブルによるもので、スタメン確定時点で凍結されます。試合後の振り返りでは、この凍結された数値を結果と照合します。試合中は、別枠のライブ勝利確率が現在のスコアと残り時間に合わせてモデルを読み直します。約1分ごとに更新され、遅延があり、あくまで記述的なものであって、遊技商品ではありません。手法: 方法論ドキュメント.
Live score, descriptive in-match stats, and a post-match calibration recap appear here once the match kicks off.
Analysis
The model rates Mexico as clear favourites at 59.5%, with South Africa at 13.4% and the draw at 27.2%. The Elo gap is substantial at 336 points in Mexico's favour, reflecting a clear strength differential in recent form. In Group A, Mexico are expected to advance (96.0%) while South Africa face a tighter path (22.9%) — this result could be decisive for South Africa's campaign.
Tactical matchup
Mexico (high press) meet South Africa (balanced) — contrasting tactical identities that should shape the contest. Mexico press significantly higher (PPDA 16.1) — their ability to force turnovers in advanced positions will be a key tactical dynamic.
Key battlegrounds
Mexico must sustain their pressing intensity to force turnovers in advanced positions. The individual battle features Raúl Jiménez (P(scores) 9.3%) against Evidence Makgopa (3.0%) — their impact could prove decisive.
Situational factors
South Africa face a 14,106km journey to the venue versus Mexico's 14km — acclimatisation and fatigue could factor into the second half. South Africa's Hugo Broos (5.4 years in post) brings significantly more tenure than Javier Aguirre (2.4 years) — squad cohesion and tactical familiarity may differ accordingly.
Match storyline
At 13.4%, a South Africa result would qualify as a genuine upset — the kind of group-stage surprise every World Cup produces.
Key numbers
Latest news & match context
- World Cup Daily: Finally, the biggest tournament ever is about to begin with Mexico vs. SA · ESPN · 11 Jun
- World Cup predictions: Mexico vs South Africa, South Korea vs Czech Republic on matchday 1 · The New York Times · 11 Jun
- Stage:
- Group A · Matchday 1
Mexico
Mexico: 2 carrying a fitness doubt.
- DoubtCésar Montes, a projected starter at defender, is recovering from Leg injury and is a fitness watch item; if unavailable the projected XI shifts.
- DoubtJulián Araujo (defender) is carrying Hamstring injury — a depth-level fitness watch item.
South Africa
South Africa come in at close to full strength.
Mexico faces defensive uncertainty with key defender César Montes doubtful due to a leg injury.
Fellow defender Julián Araujo is also a doubt with a hamstring issue.
South Africa, by contrast, reports a fully fit squad.
Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.
Pre-match forecast
goals
この試合の公開確率はスタメン確定時（キックオフ約1時間前）に固定され、その後は更新されません。試合後の振り返りが照合するのはこの数値です。ライブセクションのライブ勝利確率は別枠の遅延付き・記述的な推定値で、公開済みの予測に取って代わるものではありません。
Most likely scorelines
- 1–016.9%
- 0–014.5%
- 1–113.1%
- 2–011.0%
- 0–19.4%
From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.
Live descriptive stats
Descriptive stats — accumulated xG, shots, shots on target, possession share, corners, fouls, cards — appear here from first whistle. Stats describe the match as played; they don't change the pre-match probability shown above.
Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.
Live commentary & events· awaiting kick-off
Goals, cards, substitutions, and VAR reviews appear here as they happen, alongside a short auto-generated commentary line for each. The feed updates within roughly a minute of each event being recorded by API-Football.