Wie weit kommt jede Nation?

• Lamine Yamal: 18 at kickoff — 25 caps — projected on the bench, the squad's youngest pick.
• Ferran Torres: Model's top anytime-scorer for the team — 32% probability of scoring at least once, rank #3 of all players.

Key question: To succeed, Spain must control tempo and territory in midfield — their possession-dominant approach depends on dictating the rhythm of each match.

• Kylian Mbappé: Torn muscle fiber, no expected return. Composite 0.99 — would have been a likely starter.
• Didier Deschamps: Defending champion — Winner 2022.

Key question: France will need to leverage their strengths while managing the physical demands of a tournament spread across three host countries. Managing the fitness of Kylian Mbappé could prove decisive — their availability transforms the team's ceiling.

• Tino Livramento: Thigh problems, no expected return. Composite 0.94 — would have been a likely starter.
• Harry Kane: Model's top anytime-scorer for the team — 32% probability of scoring at least once, rank #2 of all players.

Key question: England will need to leverage their strengths while managing the physical demands of a tournament spread across three host countries. Managing the fitness of Tino Livramento could prove decisive — their availability transforms the team's ceiling.

• Cristiano Ronaldo: 41 at kickoff with 226 caps — probably his final World Cup.
• Gonçalo Ramos: Model's top anytime-scorer for the team — 30% probability of scoring at least once, rank #6 of all players.

Key question: To succeed, Portugal must control tempo and territory in midfield — their possession-dominant approach depends on dictating the rhythm of each match. Managing minutes for Cristiano Ronaldo across what could be seven matches will test the coaching staff's rotation planning.

• Donyell Malen: Model's top anytime-scorer for the team — 28% probability of scoring at least once, rank #8 of all players.
• Ronald Koeman: First World Cup as head coach, appointed 2023.

Key question: Netherlands need their high press to force turnovers in dangerous areas — if opponents can play through the press, the space left behind is vulnerable. Physical conditioning and squad rotation will be critical to sustain pressing intensity across a long tournament. Managing minutes for Virgil van Dijk across what could be seven matches will test the coaching staff's rotation planning.

• Thibaut Courtois: #2 starting-GK rating in the field — 0.99 on club-derived save metrics across 48 teams.
• Rudi Garcia: First World Cup as head coach, appointed 2025.

Key question: Belgium will need to leverage their strengths while managing the physical demands of a tournament spread across three host countries. Managing minutes for Axel Witsel across what could be seven matches will test the coaching staff's rotation planning.

• Florian Wirtz: Stomach problems, no expected return. Composite 0.98 — would have been a likely starter.
• Leroy Sané: Field's #1 midfielder in the WC2026 pool by composite rating (0.98).

Key question: To succeed, Germany must control tempo and territory in midfield — their possession-dominant approach depends on dictating the rhythm of each match. Managing the fitness of Florian Wirtz could prove decisive — their availability transforms the team's ceiling.

• Joško Gvardiol: Field's #1 defender in the WC2026 pool by composite rating (0.99).
• Luka Vušković: 19 at kickoff — 4 caps — projected on the bench, the squad's youngest pick.

Key question: Croatia need their high press to force turnovers in dangerous areas — if opponents can play through the press, the space left behind is vulnerable. Physical conditioning and squad rotation will be critical to sustain pressing intensity across a long tournament. Managing minutes for Ivan Perišić across what could be seven matches will test the coaching staff's rotation planning.

• Gained 79 international Elo points over the last 12 months — current rating 1950.
• Breel Embolo: Model's top anytime-scorer for the team — 27% probability of scoring at least once, rank #11 of all players.

Key question: Switzerland play a pragmatic, results-oriented game that adapts shape to the opposition. Tactical flexibility is their strength. The risk is inconsistency — without a default identity, a poor result can cascade if the team struggles to find a Plan B. Managing minutes for Remo Freuler across what could be seven matches will test the coaching staff's rotation planning.

• Ralf Rangnick: First World Cup as head coach, appointed 2022.
• Paul Wanner: 20 at kickoff — 2 caps — projected on the bench, the squad's youngest pick.

Key question: Austria need their high press to force turnovers in dangerous areas — if opponents can play through the press, the space left behind is vulnerable. Physical conditioning and squad rotation will be critical to sustain pressing intensity across a long tournament. Managing minutes for Marko Arnautović across what could be seven matches will test the coaching staff's rotation planning.

• Gained 88 international Elo points over the last 12 months — current rating 1964.
• Alexander Sørloth: Model's top anytime-scorer for the team — 35% probability of scoring at least once, rank #1 of all players.

Key question: Norway will need to leverage their strengths while managing the physical demands of a tournament spread across three host countries.

• Craig Gordon: 43 at kickoff with 83 caps — last World Cup for the #1.
• Steve Clarke: First World Cup as head coach, appointed 2019.

Key question: Scotland will look to stay compact and frustrate opponents, limiting space and hitting on the break. Set-piece proficiency — both attacking and defending — becomes critical when open-play chances are limited by design.

• Kerim Alajbegović: 18 at kickoff — 8 caps — projected on the bench, the squad's youngest pick.
• Edin Džeko: 40 at kickoff with 148 caps — probably his final World Cup.

Key question: Bosnia and Herzegovina will need to leverage their strengths while managing the physical demands of a tournament spread across three host countries. Managing minutes for Edin Džeko across what could be seven matches will test the coaching staff's rotation planning.

• Hugo Sochůrek: 18 at kickoff — 0 caps — projected on the bench, the squad's youngest pick.
• Miroslav Koubek: First World Cup as head coach, appointed 2025.

Key question: Czech Republic rely on defensive discipline and quick transitions — absorbing pressure and converting turnovers into attacking chances. Concentration and defensive organisation for full 90-minute stretches will determine whether the approach holds against top opposition.

• 3 group-stage matches at venues averaging 26°C+ — Monterrey, Houston, Dallas (peak 29.4°C average).
• Graham Potter: First World Cup as head coach, appointed 2025.

Key question: Sweden rely on defensive discipline and quick transitions — absorbing pressure and converting turnovers into attacking chances. Concentration and defensive organisation for full 90-minute stretches will determine whether the approach holds against top opposition.

• Vincenzo Montella: First World Cup as head coach, appointed 2023.
• Gained 68 international Elo points over the last 12 months — current rating 1958.

Key question: Turkey play a pragmatic, results-oriented game that adapts shape to the opposition. Tactical flexibility is their strength. The risk is inconsistency — without a default identity, a poor result can cascade if the team struggles to find a Plan B.

• Lionel Scaloni: Defending champion — Winner 2022.
• Franco Mastantuono: 18 at kickoff — 4 caps — projected on the bench, the squad's youngest pick.

Key question: To succeed, Argentina must control tempo and territory in midfield — their possession-dominant approach depends on dictating the rhythm of each match. Managing minutes for Lionel Messi across what could be seven matches will test the coaching staff's rotation planning.

• Gabriel Jesus: Model's top anytime-scorer for the team — 32% probability of scoring at least once, rank #4 of all players.
• Endrick: 19 at kickoff — 15 caps — projected on the bench, the squad's youngest pick.

Key question: Brazil need their high press to force turnovers in dangerous areas — if opponents can play through the press, the space left behind is vulnerable. Physical conditioning and squad rotation will be critical to sustain pressing intensity across a long tournament.

• David Ospina: #1 starting-GK rating in the field — 1.00 on club-derived save metrics across 48 teams.
• Néstor Lorenzo: First World Cup as head coach, appointed 2022.

Key question: Colombia play a pragmatic, results-oriented game that adapts shape to the opposition. Tactical flexibility is their strength. The risk is inconsistency — without a default identity, a poor result can cascade if the team struggles to find a Plan B.

• Fernando Muslera: 39 at kickoff with 134 caps — last World Cup for the #1.
• Darwin Núñez: Model's top anytime-scorer for the team — 22% probability of scoring at least once, rank #23 of all players.

Key question: Uruguay will need to leverage their strengths while managing the physical demands of a tournament spread across three host countries.

• wp-deinner-ordonez-2009-10-29: 16 at kickoff — 0 caps — projected on the bench, the squad's youngest pick.
• Sebastián Beccacece: First World Cup as head coach, appointed 2024.

Key question: Ecuador rely on defensive discipline and quick transitions — absorbing pressure and converting turnovers into attacking chances. Concentration and defensive organisation for full 90-minute stretches will determine whether the approach holds against top opposition. Managing minutes for Enner Valencia across what could be seven matches will test the coaching staff's rotation planning.

• Model rates them #22 by tournament-winner probability — 17 places higher than FIFA #39.
• Diego León: 19 at kickoff — 1 caps — projected on the bench, the squad's youngest pick.

Key question: Paraguay will need to leverage their strengths while managing the physical demands of a tournament spread across three host countries.

• Folarin Balogun: Model's top anytime-scorer for the team — 28% probability of scoring at least once, rank #9 of all players.
• Mauricio Pochettino: First World Cup as head coach, appointed 2024.

Key question: United States will need to leverage their strengths while managing the physical demands of a tournament spread across three host countries. Managing minutes for Tim Ream across what could be seven matches will test the coaching staff's rotation planning.

• Guillermo Ochoa: 40 at kickoff with 151 caps — last World Cup for the #1.
• 3 group-stage matches at altitude — Mexico City (2240m), Guadalajara (1565m), Mexico City (2240m). Thinner air shifts ball flight and recovery.

Key question: Mexico need their high press to force turnovers in dangerous areas — if opponents can play through the press, the space left behind is vulnerable. Physical conditioning and squad rotation will be critical to sustain pressing intensity across a long tournament.

• Jesse Marsch: First World Cup as head coach, appointed 2024.
• Luc de Fougerolles: 20 at kickoff — 11 caps — projected on the bench, the squad's youngest pick.

Key question: Canada play a pragmatic, results-oriented game that adapts shape to the opposition. Tactical flexibility is their strength. The risk is inconsistency — without a default identity, a poor result can cascade if the team struggles to find a Plan B.

• Thomas Christiansen: First World Cup as head coach, appointed 2020.
• Eric Davis: 35 at kickoff with 104 caps — probably his final World Cup.

Key question: Panama rely on defensive discipline and quick transitions — absorbing pressure and converting turnovers into attacking chances. Concentration and defensive organisation for full 90-minute stretches will determine whether the approach holds against top opposition. Managing minutes for Eric Davis across what could be seven matches will test the coaching staff's rotation planning.

• Model rates them #48 by tournament-winner probability — 34 places higher than FIFA #82.
• Gained 88 international Elo points over the last 12 months — current rating 1614.

Key question: Curaçao will need to leverage their strengths while managing the physical demands of a tournament spread across three host countries. With Fred Rutten appointed relatively recently (161 days before kickoff), building tactical cohesion in limited preparation time is the immediate challenge.

• Model rates them #45 by tournament-winner probability — 39 places higher than FIFA #84.
• Sébastien Migné: First World Cup as head coach, appointed 2024.

Key question: Haiti will need to leverage their strengths while managing the physical demands of a tournament spread across three host countries.

• 3 group-stage matches at venues averaging 26°C+ — Dallas, Monterrey, Dallas (peak 29.4°C average).
• Yūto Nagatomo: 39 at kickoff with 144 caps — probably his final World Cup.

Key question: Japan will look to stay compact and frustrate opponents, limiting space and hitting on the break. Set-piece proficiency — both attacking and defending — becomes critical when open-play chances are limited by design. Managing minutes for Yūto Nagatomo across what could be seven matches will test the coaching staff's rotation planning.

• Kasra Taheri: 19 at kickoff — 2 caps — projected on the bench, the squad's youngest pick.
• Ehsan Hajsafi: 36 at kickoff with 144 caps — probably his final World Cup.

Key question: Iran rely on defensive discipline and quick transitions — absorbing pressure and converting turnovers into attacking chances. Concentration and defensive organisation for full 90-minute stretches will determine whether the approach holds against top opposition. Managing minutes for Ehsan Hajsafi across what could be seven matches will test the coaching staff's rotation planning.

• Travels 34,978 km across 2 venues in the group stage — one of the longest itineraries in the field.
• Son Heung-min: Takes corners, free kicks, and penalties — the team's dead-ball threat.

Key question: South Korea rely on defensive discipline and quick transitions — absorbing pressure and converting turnovers into attacking chances. Concentration and defensive organisation for full 90-minute stretches will determine whether the approach holds against top opposition. Managing minutes for Kim Seung-gyu across what could be seven matches will test the coaching staff's rotation planning.

• Nestory Irankunda: 20 at kickoff — 13 caps.
• Travels 38,983 km across 3 venues in the group stage — one of the longest itineraries in the field.

Key question: Australia rely on defensive discipline and quick transitions — absorbing pressure and converting turnovers into attacking chances. Concentration and defensive organisation for full 90-minute stretches will determine whether the approach holds against top opposition.

• Model rates them #33 by tournament-winner probability — 17 places higher than FIFA #50.
• Travels 35,992 km across 3 venues in the group stage — one of the longest itineraries in the field.

Key question: Uzbekistan will need to leverage their strengths while managing the physical demands of a tournament spread across three host countries.

• Lost 106 international Elo points between Nov 2024 and Dec 2025 — rating now 1569 (no fixtures since).
• Tahsin Jamshid: 19 at kickoff — 1 caps — projected on the bench, the squad's youngest pick.

Key question: Qatar will look to stay compact and frustrate opponents, limiting space and hitting on the break. Set-piece proficiency — both attacking and defending — becomes critical when open-play chances are limited by design. Managing minutes for Hassan Al-Haydos across what could be seven matches will test the coaching staff's rotation planning.

• Model rates them #42 by tournament-winner probability — 18 places higher than FIFA #60.
• Georgios Donis: Appointed less than 18 months ago. Came in from Al-Khaleej.

Key question: Saudi Arabia will need to leverage their strengths while managing the physical demands of a tournament spread across three host countries. With Georgios Donis appointed relatively recently (161 days before kickoff), building tactical cohesion in limited preparation time is the immediate challenge.

• Model rates them #43 by tournament-winner probability — 23 places higher than FIFA #66.
• Travels 35,677 km across 2 venues in the group stage — one of the longest itineraries in the field.

Key question: Jordan will need to leverage their strengths while managing the physical demands of a tournament spread across three host countries.

• Gained 65 international Elo points over the last 12 months — current rating 1738.
• Jalal Hassan: 35 at kickoff with 100 caps — probably his final World Cup.

Key question: Iraq will need to leverage their strengths while managing the physical demands of a tournament spread across three host countries. Managing minutes for Jalal Hassan across what could be seven matches will test the coaching staff's rotation planning.

• wp-ayyoub-bouaddi-2007-10-02: 18 at kickoff — 0 caps — projected on the bench, the squad's youngest pick.
• Gained 80 international Elo points over the last 12 months — current rating 1982.

Key question: Morocco rely on defensive discipline and quick transitions — absorbing pressure and converting turnovers into attacking chances. Concentration and defensive organisation for full 90-minute stretches will determine whether the approach holds against top opposition. With Mohamed Ouahbi appointed relatively recently (161 days before kickoff), building tactical cohesion in limited preparation time is the immediate challenge.

• wp-bara-sapoko-ndiaye-2007-12-31: 18 at kickoff — 0 caps — projected on the bench, the squad's youngest pick.
• Pape Thiaw: First World Cup as head coach, appointed 2024.

Key question: Senegal rely on defensive discipline and quick transitions — absorbing pressure and converting turnovers into attacking chances. Concentration and defensive organisation for full 90-minute stretches will determine whether the approach holds against top opposition. Managing minutes for Idrissa Gueye across what could be seven matches will test the coaching staff's rotation planning.

• Mohamed Salah: Thigh problems, no expected return. Composite 0.96 — would have been a likely starter.
• wp-hamza-abdelkarim-2008-01-01: 18 at kickoff — 0 caps — projected on the bench, the squad's youngest pick.

Key question: Egypt play a pragmatic, results-oriented game that adapts shape to the opposition. Tactical flexibility is their strength. The risk is inconsistency — without a default identity, a poor result can cascade if the team struggles to find a Plan B. Managing the fitness of Mohamed Salah could prove decisive — their availability transforms the team's ceiling.

• Kilian Belazzoug: 19 at kickoff — 0 caps.
• Rayan Aït-Nouri: Field's #2 defender in the WC2026 pool by composite rating (0.98).

Key question: To succeed, Algeria must control tempo and territory in midfield — their possession-dominant approach depends on dictating the rhythm of each match. Managing minutes for Riyad Mahrez across what could be seven matches will test the coaching staff's rotation planning.

• Rayan Elloumi: 18 at kickoff — 2 caps — projected on the bench, the squad's youngest pick.
• Sabri Lamouchi: Appointed less than 18 months ago. Came in from Al-Diriyah.

Key question: Tunisia play a pragmatic, results-oriented game that adapts shape to the opposition. Tactical flexibility is their strength. The risk is inconsistency — without a default identity, a poor result can cascade if the team struggles to find a Plan B. With Sabri Lamouchi appointed relatively recently (161 days before kickoff), building tactical cohesion in limited preparation time is the immediate challenge.

• Gained 87 international Elo points over the last 12 months — current rating 1795.
• Yan Diomande: 19 at kickoff — 9 caps — projected on the bench, the squad's youngest pick.

Key question: To succeed, Ivory Coast must control tempo and territory in midfield — their possession-dominant approach depends on dictating the rhythm of each match.

• Model rates them #44 by tournament-winner probability — 17 places higher than FIFA #61.
• Travels 41,892 km across 3 venues in the group stage — one of the longest itineraries in the field.

Key question: South Africa will need to leverage their strengths while managing the physical demands of a tournament spread across three host countries.

• Model rates them #47 by tournament-winner probability — 21 places higher than FIFA #68.
• Vozinha: 40 at kickoff with 85 caps — last World Cup for the #1.

Key question: Cape Verde need their high press to force turnovers in dangerous areas — if opponents can play through the press, the space left behind is vulnerable. Physical conditioning and squad rotation will be critical to sustain pressing intensity across a long tournament.

• Model rates them #41 by tournament-winner probability — 31 places higher than FIFA #72.
• Carlos Queiroz: Appointed less than 18 months ago. Came in from Oman.

Key question: Ghana rely on defensive discipline and quick transitions — absorbing pressure and converting turnovers into attacking chances. Concentration and defensive organisation for full 90-minute stretches will determine whether the approach holds against top opposition. Managing minutes for Jordan Ayew across what could be seven matches will test the coaching staff's rotation planning.

• Gained 87 international Elo points over the last 12 months — current rating 1767.
• Travels 38,411 km across 3 venues in the group stage — one of the longest itineraries in the field.

Key question: DR Congo rely on defensive discipline and quick transitions — absorbing pressure and converting turnovers into attacking chances. Concentration and defensive organisation for full 90-minute stretches will determine whether the approach holds against top opposition.

• Model rates them #38 by tournament-winner probability — 48 places higher than FIFA #86.
• Top pool goalkeeper Max Crocombe rates only 0.40 on club save metrics (the field's top sides sit at 0.85+) — a thin position group going into the tournament.

Key question: New Zealand will need to leverage their strengths while managing the physical demands of a tournament spread across three host countries.