Portugal
Snapshot · 2026-07-14Model 1.0.0UEFA·Gruppe K·FIFA #6
Possession-dominant side led by Gonçalo Ramos.
Letzte Formation: 4-3-3 (5 von 5)
- Rivale
- Colombia (#13)
- Schlüssel
- Cristiano Ronaldo (FW)
Final squad announced · Portugal · 2026-05-19
Source: The New York Times ↗WC2026 results
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 17 | DR Congo | 1–1 | D | Houston |
| Jun 23 | Uzbekistan | 5–0 | W | Houston |
| Jun 27 | Colombia | 0–0 | D | Miami Gardens |
| Jul 2 | Croatia | 2–1 | W | Toronto |
| Jul 6 | Spain | 0–1 | L | Dallas |
Turnierausblick
Analysis
Portugal are rated at 8.1% to win the tournament, placing them 5th in the field. Cristiano Ronaldo — 41 at kickoff with 226 caps — probably his final world cup. Drawn in Group K alongside Colombia, Uzbekistan, DR Congo, they are projected at 97.1% to advance to the knockout stage.
How they play
Portugal under Roberto Martínez play a possession dominant game, holding 59% of the ball — among the highest in the tournament field. Their likely shape is a 4-3-3. They apply moderate pressing intensity (PPDA 21.6) and build patiently through midfield with 7.9 passes per attacking sequence. They generate a high volume of shots (13.5 per 90).
Path to success
Their route begins in Group K with Colombia, Uzbekistan, DR Congo, where the model projects a 52.9% chance of finishing top and 97.1% of advancing. From there the projected knockout path runs: round of 32 (68.6%), quarter-finals (44.6%), semi-finals (25.5%), the final (15.0%). Sustaining intensity through up to seven matches across three host countries will demand squad depth and adaptability.
What they must execute
To succeed, Portugal must control tempo and territory in midfield — their possession-dominant approach depends on dictating the rhythm of each match. Managing minutes for Cristiano Ronaldo across what could be seven matches will test the coaching staff's rotation planning.
Controversial take
The model's assessment of Portugal broadly aligns with their FIFA ranking — no major disagreement between the two systems for this squad.
Key numbers
How they play
Style vs the 48-team field
Possession-dominant · style profile from 18 recent matches
What to watch: heavy use of the flanks (crossing proxy).
Percentiles position Portugal against the 48-team field. Higher means more of that trait, not better or worse. Press is inverted (lower PPDA = higher press); width uses crossing rate as a proxy; tempo is open-play passes per minute of possession. Descriptive style analytics; does not feed the published probabilities.
Group K finish · Portugal
Monte Carlo, 100,000 simsTop two advance to the round of 32; best 8 of 12 third-placed teams also qualify.
- 52.5%1st (group winner)Advances to R32
- 35.0%2nd (runner-up)Advances to R32
- 9.8%3rdAdvances only if among the best 8 of 12 third-placed teams
- 2.8%4thEliminated
Stage progression · Portugal
, 100,000 sims- 95.2%AdvAdvance from group
- 71.0%R16Round of 16
- 47.9%QFQuarter-final
- 29.0%SFSemi-final
- 17.2%FFinal
- 9.3%WinWin the tournament
Likely knockout path · Portugal
Monte Carlo, 10,000 simsDer Kader
Confirmed squad
Model-predicted · snapshot 2026-05-28Roster confirmed by the federation's official squad announcement. The XI/bench split below is the model's composite-rating ordering, not the head coach's lineup.
★ likely first sub badge on the top-3 by first-sub score within each position group, plus a late-game impact rating where club per-90 stats are available.
▸How to read this squad— 4 columns explained
- Pos
- Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
- Caps
- Senior international appearances. Used by the model as a recency-weighted signal of how often the manager calls the player up.
- Stat
- Position-aware stat: career international goals for forwards; career international assists for midfielders (Transfermarkt); latest available Big-5 club season's total tackles for defenders (FBref); latest available Big-5 club season's save percentage for goalkeepers (FBref). Em-dash when no data is joined — most often for defenders and keepers at non-Big-5 clubs.
- Rating
- Composite rating (Model #4) — combines recent caps + goals, recent club xG and xAG per 90, position-relative quality, and call-up priors. Higher = the model thinks the player is more likely to start. Typically 0.9 (depth) to 2.5 (elite).
Selection driver — coloured chips show which input dominates a player's selection score. Caps-driven = selected mainly on international experience. Rating-driven = selected mainly on club performance quality. Jersey-boosted = jersey number from a recent squad snapshot lifted their score. Goals-driven = international goal record was the decisive factor. No chip when the score is a balanced blend.
Squad cohesion
Projected XI · club overlap
- Pairwise club minutes
- 4.99%
- Share of the 55-pair × 3000-minute ceiling. Higher = more of the XI plays together at club level.
- Club concentration
- 0.225
- How concentrated the XI is across clubs. 0.091 = 11 different clubs · 1.000 = all the same club.
- Top-3 clubs share
- 71%
- 5 of 7 play for the three most common clubs in the XI.
Top clubs in projected XI
- Manchester United2
- AC Milan2
- Barcelona1
Most-connected club pair
Diogo Dalot + Bruno Fernandes — Manchester United, 2023-24 · 5,942 shared minutes
Show next 2
- João Cancelo + João Félix — Barcelona, 2023-24 · 1,530 min
- João Félix + Rafael Leão — AC Milan, 2024-25 · 761 min
Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Squad depth
Projected XI · replaceability
Most irreplaceable starters
- Bruno FernandesAttacking midfieldLikely cover: Francisco Trincão · 0.40Sporting CP0.56gap to repl.
- Diogo CostaGoalkeeperLikely cover: Rui Silva · 0.50Sporting CP0.50gap to repl.
- Bernardo SilvaAttacking midfieldLikely cover: Francisco Trincão · 0.40Sporting CP0.24gap to repl.
Gap to repl. = how far this nation's rating at the position falls from the starter to his likely in-squad replacement (named above). Larger = harder to replace.
Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Gruppenspielplan
Group-stage schedule
| MD | Date | Opponent | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jun 17, 2026 | DR Congo | Houston, United States |
| 2 | Jun 23, 2026 | Uzbekistan | Houston, United States |
| 3 | Jun 27, 2026 | Colombia | Miami Gardens, United States |
Direktvergleiche
Erzählstränge
Storylines
Updated 49 days ago41 at kickoff with 226 caps — probably his final World Cup.
Model's top anytime-scorer for the team — 30% probability of scoring at least once, rank #6 of all players.
Averaged 2.63 xG per match across 15 recent internationals — #3 of 35 in the field for attacking output.
Squad averages 1.80 xG per match across club football last season — #4 of 20 in the field for attacking pedigree from each player's domestic side (13 of 23 players matched to a known club).
Form & Bilanz
Video analysis: Portugal
Performance data from official highlights analysis across 5 matches. 12 players observed, 24 events tracked.
Scored multiple goals, demonstrating clinical finishing and leading the attack for Portugal.
Player ratings (12)
9Ronaldo2 apps99▼
Scored multiple goals, demonstrating clinical finishing and leading the attack for Portugal.
8Diogo Costa1 app · 6 events6 saves8▼
Made numerous crucial saves throughout the match, demonstrating strong reflexes and positioning to keep Portugal in contention.
8Gonçalo Ramos1 app8▼
Came off the bench to score the decisive winning header, showcasing his aerial ability and impact.
7Vitinha1 app · 4 events2 shots (1 on target)7▼
Demonstrated his ability to strike from distance with a powerful free-kick that hit the crossbar and another that forced a save.
7Nuno Mendes1 app · 1 events1 shot (1 on target)7▼
Made a dangerous attacking run and had a shot on target, showing good offensive contribution from defense.
7Conceição1 app · 1 events7▼
Provided a good pass that created a clear scoring opportunity for Ronaldo.
7Cordoba1 app7▼
Was highly active in attack, taking numerous shots and consistently posing a threat to the opposition's goal.
6.3Cristiano Ronaldo3 apps · 5 events3 shots (1 on target)1 fouls won586▼
Missed a clear close-range opportunity, failing to convert a significant chance for Portugal.
6João Neves2 apps · 3 events1 goal1 header84▼
6Bernardo Silva1 app · 1 events1 fouls won6▼
Was fouled, leading to a yellow card for an opponent, but had no other significant contributions.
6João Félix1 app · 1 events6▼
Provided a pass that led to a shot, but had no further significant impact mentioned.
5Nélson Semedo1 app · 2 events1 yellow5▼
Received a yellow card late in the game for a foul, impacting his defensive rating.
Match observations
- gs-021The match ended in a 1-1 draw, with both teams scoring a goal each.
- gs-021Portugal took an early lead, but Congo DR managed to equalize just before half-time.
- gs-021Both teams had significant chances throughout the game, including shots hitting the post and good saves from the goalkeepers.
- gs-045The match was dominated by Portugal from the outset, showcasing high pressing and relentless attacking pressure.
- gs-045Portugal's clinical finishing allowed them to build a significant lead early and maintain control throughout the game.
- gs-045Uzbekistan attempted quick counter-attacks but found it difficult to penetrate Portugal's solid defence.
- gs-069The match was a competitive encounter with both teams creating numerous chances, though several goals were ruled out for offside.
- gs-069Croatia took an early lead, but Portugal responded with a penalty to equalize.
- gs-069The game saw a late surge from Portugal, culminating in a winning header.
- r16-005This was a fiercely contested match with both teams creating numerous scoring opportunities.
- r16-005Spain demonstrated a persistent attacking approach, eventually breaking the deadlock after several attempts.
- r16-005Portugal, despite moments of individual brilliance and set-piece danger, struggled to convert their chances into goals.
- r32-011The match was a high-scoring affair, with both teams demonstrating significant attacking intent.
- r32-011Multiple goals were disallowed for offside, adding to the drama and frustration for both sides.
- r32-011The game featured several momentum swings, with each team having periods of dominance.
Statistical profile
Possession DominantAttack
Defence
GK: José Sá
Set pieces
Style
Squad
Workload class: light
Attack and defence ratings from the model; style metrics from recent international matches; penalty rates via Bayesian estimation; goalkeeper rating from shot-prevention data. Rank is out of 48 tournament teams.
Where goals come from
Phase of play · scored & conceded
- Open play
- Set piece
- Counter
- Penalty
Share of goals by how the chance began, across 18 matches (Euro2020,Euro2024,WC2018,WC2022). Shoot-out kicks are excluded. Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Group-stage matchups
Probabilities from the calibrated ensemble model. xG from the Dixon–Coles fit. See each fixture page for full analysis.
Rating & probability history
12 snapshots · 2026-05-22 → 2026-06-24Portugal trajectory: 12 snapshots between 2026-05-22 and 2026-06-24 (33 days). Elo moved from 1984.0 to 1984.0 (0). Tournament-winner probability moved from 6.7% to 7.3% (+0.6pp).
Each point is one model build. The shaded band is the bootstrap 90% credible interval around the tournament-winner probability.
Recent form (10 matches)
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | AUnited States | 2–0 | W | Friendly |
| 2026-03-28 | AMexico | 0–0 | D | Friendly |
| 2025-11-16 | HArmenia | 9–1 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-11-13 | ARepublic of Ireland | 0–2 | L | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-10-14 | HHungary | 2–2 | D | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-10-11 | HRepublic of Ireland | 1–0 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-09-09 | AHungary | 3–2 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-09-06 | AArmenia | 5–0 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-06-08 | NSpain | 2–2 | D | UEFA Nations League |
| 2025-06-04 | AGermany | 2–1 | W | UEFA Nations League |
martj42 international results (CC0) · last 10 matches · ~2 years.
Head-to-head vs group opponents
| Opponent | Meetings | W-D-L | Last meeting |
|---|---|---|---|
| DR Congo | 1 | 0-1-0 | 2026 — Draw (1–1) · FIFA World Cup |
| Uzbekistan | 1 | 1-0-0 | 2026 — Win (5–0) · FIFA World Cup |
| Colombia | 0 | — | No prior meetings |
All meetings via the martj42 international results dataset.
Major tournaments — most recent appearance
| Tournament | Year | Finish | W-D-L | Since then |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UEFA Euro | 2024 | Quarter-finals | 2-2-1 |
|
| FIFA World Cup | 2022 | Quarter-finals | 3-0-2 |
|
Source: FIFA archives. Penalty outcomes resolved to W/L.
Most similar past team-tournaments
Closest comparable teams from past major tournaments (1990-2024), by squad strength, group draw, and recent form. Shown for context, not a prediction.
England · Euro 2016
Exited at the round of 16
Comparable pre-tournament strength (Elo 2006) and group draw.
Germany · Euro 2008
Finished runner-up
England · World Cup 2018
Finished fourth
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