Switzerland
Snapshot · 2026-06-11Model 1.0.0UEFA·Gruppe B·FIFA #17
Pragmatic side led by Breel Embolo.
Letzte Formation: 4-2-3-1 (3 von 4)
- Rivale
- Canada (#27)
- Schlüssel
- Ricardo Rodriguez (DF)
Turnierausblick
Analysis
Switzerland sit in the second tier of contenders with a 1.4% tournament probability (15th in the field). The squad bridges generations: Remo Freuler (34 at kickoff with 86 caps — probably his final world cup) alongside Johan Manzambi, the squad's youngest prospect. Drawn in Group B alongside Canada, Qatar, Bosnia and Herzegovina, they are projected at 97.3% to advance to the knockout stage.
How they play
Switzerland under Murat Yakin play a pragmatic game with 50% possession. Their likely shape is a 4-2-3-1, though they have also used 4-3-3. They apply moderate pressing intensity (PPDA 22.8).
Path to success
Switzerland face Canada, Qatar, Bosnia and Herzegovina in Group B, with a 97.3% probability of advancing to the knockout rounds. A quarter-final run is realistic at 26.6%, though reaching the semi-finals (10.1%) would represent an exceptional campaign. Navigating the expanded 48-team format, which adds a round of 32, means an extra knockout fixture for any team with title ambitions.
What they must execute
Switzerland play a pragmatic, results-oriented game that adapts shape to the opposition. Tactical flexibility is their strength. The risk is inconsistency — without a default identity, a poor result can cascade if the team struggles to find a Plan B. Managing minutes for Remo Freuler across what could be seven matches will test the coaching staff's rotation planning.
Controversial take
The model's assessment of Switzerland broadly aligns with their FIFA ranking — no major disagreement between the two systems for this squad.
Key numbers
How they play
Style vs the 48-team field
Pragmatic · style profile from 18 recent matches
What to watch: a slower, more circuitous attack.
Percentiles position Switzerland against the 48-team field — higher means more of that trait, not better or worse. Press is inverted (lower PPDA = higher press); width uses crossing rate as a proxy; tempo is open-play passes per minute of possession. Descriptive style analytics; does not feed the published probabilities.
Group B finish · Switzerland
Monte Carlo, 50,000 simsTop two advance to the round of 32; best 8 of 12 third-placed teams also qualify.
- 52.3%1st (group winner)Advances to R32
- 35.2%2nd (runner-up)Advances to R32
- 10.4%3rdAdvances only if among the best 8 of 12 third-placed teams
- 2.1%4thEliminated
Stage progression · Switzerland
, 50,000 sims- 96.0%AdvAdvance from group
- 60.2%R16Round of 16
- 26.2%QFQuarter-final
- 10.3%SFSemi-final
- 4.0%FFinal
- 1.4%WinWin the tournament
Likely knockout path · Switzerland
Monte Carlo, 10,000 simsMost frequent opponents per round, conditional on reaching it.
R32
Round of 32
R16
Round of 16
Der Kader
Predicted squad
Wikipedia call-up pool · snapshot 2026-05-28The source has jersey numbers assigned, but they may reflect a recent friendly window rather than the final FIFA squad. The model still ranks all pool players and may surface a non-jerseyed regular over a numbered backup.
★ likely first sub badge on the top-3 by first-sub score within each position group, plus a late-game impact rating where club per-90 stats are available.
▸How to read this squad— 4 columns explained
- Pos
- Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
- Caps
- Senior international appearances. Used by the model as a recency-weighted signal of how often the manager calls the player up.
- Stat
- Position-aware stat: career international goals for forwards; career international assists for midfielders (Transfermarkt); latest available Big-5 club season's total tackles for defenders (FBref); latest available Big-5 club season's save percentage for goalkeepers (FBref). Em-dash when no data is joined — most often for defenders and keepers at non-Big-5 clubs.
- Rating
- Composite rating (Model #4) — combines recent caps + goals, recent club xG and xAG per 90, position-relative quality, and call-up priors. Higher = the model thinks the player is more likely to start. Typically 0.9 (depth) to 2.5 (elite).
Selection driver — coloured chips show which input dominates a player's selection score. Caps-driven = selected mainly on international experience. Rating-driven = selected mainly on club performance quality. Jersey-boosted = jersey number from a recent squad snapshot lifted their score. Goals-driven = international goal record was the decisive factor. No chip when the score is a balanced blend.
Squad cohesion
Projected XI · club overlap
- Pairwise club minutes
- 1.23%
- Share of the 55-pair × 3000-minute ceiling. Higher = more of the XI plays together at club level.
- Club concentration
- 0.107
- How concentrated the XI is across clubs. 0.091 = 11 different clubs · 1.000 = all the same club.
- Top-3 clubs share
- 36%
- 4 of 11 play for the three most common clubs in the XI.
Top clubs in projected XI
- Monaco2
- Borussia Dortmund1
- Mainz 051
Most-connected club pair
Denis Zakaria + Breel Embolo — Monaco, 2024-25 · 2,028 shared minutes
Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Squad depth
Projected XI · replaceability
Most irreplaceable starters
- Manuel AkanjiCentre-backLikely cover: Aurèle Amenda · 0.36Eintracht Frankfurt0.53gap to repl.
- Nico ElvediCentre-backLikely cover: Aurèle Amenda · 0.36Eintracht Frankfurt0.51gap to repl.
- Breel EmboloStrikerLikely cover: Cedric Itten · 0.36Fortuna Düsseldorf0.27gap to repl.
Gap to repl. = how far this nation's rating at the position falls from the starter to his likely in-squad replacement (named above). Larger = harder to replace.
Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Gruppenspielplan
Group-stage schedule
| MD | Date | Opponent | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jun 13, 2026 | Qatar | Santa Clara, United States |
| 2 | Jun 18, 2026 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | Inglewood, United States |
| 3 | Jun 24, 2026 | Canada | Vancouver, Canada |
Direktvergleiche
Erzählstränge
Storylines
Updated 14 days agoGained 79 international Elo points over the last 12 months — current rating 1950.
Model's top anytime-scorer for the team — 27% probability of scoring at least once, rank #11 of all players.
18 of 25 predicted-squad players played in a top-5 European league last season — top-tier league pedigree across the squad.
20 at kickoff — 10 caps — projected on the bench, the squad's youngest pick.
Form & Bilanz
Statistical profile
PragmaticAttack
Defence
GK: Gregor Kobel
Set pieces
Style
Squad
Workload class: light
Attack and defence ratings from the model; style metrics from recent international matches; penalty rates via Bayesian estimation; goalkeeper rating from shot-prevention data. Rank is out of 48 tournament teams.
Where goals come from
Phase of play · scored & conceded
- Open play
- Set piece
- Counter
- Penalty
Share of goals by how the chance began, across 18 matches (Euro2020,Euro2024,WC2018,WC2022). Shoot-out kicks are excluded. Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Group-stage matchups
Probabilities from the calibrated ensemble model. xG from the Dixon–Coles fit. See each fixture page for full analysis.
Rating & probability history
10 snapshots · 2026-05-22 → 2026-06-10Switzerland trajectory: 10 snapshots between 2026-05-22 and 2026-06-10 (19 days). Elo moved from 1889.0 to 1889.0 (0). Tournament-winner probability moved from 0.8% to 1.4% (+0.6pp).
Each point is one model build. The shaded band is the bootstrap 90% credible interval around the tournament-winner probability.
Recent form (10 matches)
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | ANorway | 0–0 | D | Friendly |
| 2026-03-27 | HGermany | 3–4 | L | Friendly |
| 2025-11-18 | AKosovo | 1–1 | D | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-11-15 | HSweden | 4–1 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-10-13 | ASlovenia | 0–0 | D | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-10-10 | ASweden | 2–0 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-09-08 | HSlovenia | 3–0 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-09-05 | HKosovo | 4–0 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-06-10 | AUnited States | 4–0 | W | Friendly |
| 2025-06-07 | NMexico | 4–2 | W | Friendly |
martj42 international results (CC0) · last 10 matches · ~2 years.
Head-to-head vs group opponents
| Opponent | Meetings | W-D-L | Last meeting |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | 1 | 0-0-1 | 2016 — Loss (0–2) · Friendly |
| Canada | 1 | 0-0-1 | 2002 — Loss (1–3) · Friendly |
| Qatar | 1 | 0-0-1 | 2018 — Loss (0–1) · Friendly |
All meetings via the martj42 international results dataset.
Major tournaments — most recent appearance
| Tournament | Year | Finish | W-D-L | Since then |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UEFA Euro | 2024 | Quarter-finals | 2-3-0 |
|
| FIFA World Cup | 2022 | Round of 16 | 2-0-2 |
|
Source: FIFA archives. Penalty outcomes resolved to W/L.
Most similar past team-tournaments
Closest comparable teams from past major tournaments (1990-2024), by squad strength, group draw, and recent form. Shown for context, not a prediction.
England · Euro 2016
Exited at the round of 16
Comparable pre-tournament strength (Elo 2006) and group draw.
Italy · World Cup 2010
Exited at the group stage
Germany · Euro 2008
Finished runner-up