Switzerland

Snapshot · 2026-07-14Model 1.0.0

UEFA·Gruppe B·FIFA #17

Top-8 contender

Pragmatic side led by Breel Embolo.

Letzte Formation: 4-2-3-1 (3 von 4)

Rivale: Canada (#27)
Schlüssel: Ricardo Rodriguez (DF)

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WC2026 results

Record3W · 2D · 1L

Goals10:6 (+4)

Form

Date	Opponent	Score	Result	Venue
Jun 13	Qatar	1–1	D	Santa Clara
Jun 18	Bosnia and Herzegovina	4–1	W	Inglewood
Jun 24	Canada	2–1	W	Vancouver
Jul 3	Algeria	2–0	W	Vancouver
Jul 7	Colombia	0–0	D	Vancouver
Jul 11	Argentina	1–3	L	Kansas City

Turnierausblick

Analysis

Switzerland sit in the second tier of contenders with a 1.4% tournament probability (15th in the field). The squad bridges generations: Remo Freuler (34 at kickoff with 86 caps — probably his final world cup) alongside Johan Manzambi, the squad's youngest prospect. Drawn in Group B alongside Canada, Qatar, Bosnia and Herzegovina, they are projected at 97.3% to advance to the knockout stage.

How they play

Switzerland under Murat Yakin play a pragmatic game with 50% possession. Their likely shape is a 4-2-3-1, though they have also used 4-3-3. They apply moderate pressing intensity (PPDA 22.8).

Path to success

Switzerland face Canada, Qatar, Bosnia and Herzegovina in Group B, with a 97.3% probability of advancing to the knockout rounds. A quarter-final run is realistic at 26.6%, though reaching the semi-finals (10.1%) would represent an exceptional campaign. Navigating the expanded 48-team format, which adds a round of 32, means an extra knockout fixture for any team with title ambitions.

What they must execute

Switzerland play a pragmatic, results-oriented game that adapts shape to the opposition. Tactical flexibility is their strength. The risk is inconsistency — without a default identity, a poor result can cascade if the team struggles to find a Plan B. Managing minutes for Remo Freuler across what could be seven matches will test the coaching staff's rotation planning.

Controversial take

The model's assessment of Switzerland broadly aligns with their FIFA ranking — no major disagreement between the two systems for this squad.

Key numbers

1.4%Win probability15th in field

1889Elo ratingRanked 16th globally

4-2-3-1Predicted formationFrom 4 observed matches

22.8PPDA (press intensity)Lower = more pressing; 27th of 48

30.2%Tournament goal probability — Ricardo RodriguezTop projected scorer in the squad (DF)

5.4 yearsManager tenureMurat Yakin — 2 World Cups as coach

How they play

Style vs the 48-team field

Pragmatic · style profile from 18 recent matches

Press

22.8

Build-up

6.9

Directness

5.4

Width (proxy)

469.2

Tempo

9.5

Set-piece reliance

10.3

What to watch: a slower, more circuitous attack.

Percentiles position Switzerland against the 48-team field. Higher means more of that trait, not better or worse. Press is inverted (lower PPDA = higher press); width uses crossing rate as a proxy; tempo is open-play passes per minute of possession. Descriptive style analytics; does not feed the published probabilities.

Group B finish · Switzerland

Monte Carlo, 100,000 sims

Top two advance to the round of 32; best 8 of 12 third-placed teams also qualify.

1st (group winner)
Advances to R32
54.6%
2nd (runner-up)
Advances to R32
32.3%
3rd
Advances only if among the best 8 of 12 third-placed teams
10.6%
4th
Eliminated
2.5%

Stage progression · Switzerland

, 100,000 sims

95.8%AdvAdvance from group
63.0%R16Round of 16
26.7%QFQuarter-final
10.3%SFSemi-final
3.8%FFinal
1.3%WinWin the tournament

Likely knockout path · Switzerland

Monte Carlo, 10,000 sims

Most frequent opponents per round, conditional on reaching it.

R32

Round of 32

South Korea15%

Mexico12%

Czech Republic11%

R16

Round of 16

Portugal14%

Colombia13%

Morocco12%

Quarter-final

Argentina19%

France11%

Germany9%

Semi-final

Brazil11%

Spain10%

England7%

Final

Argentina11%

Spain11%

Brazil9%

Der Kader

Predicted squad

Wikipedia call-up pool · snapshot 2026-05-28

The source has jersey numbers assigned, but they may reflect a recent friendly window rather than the final FIFA squad. The model still ranks all pool players and may surface a non-jerseyed regular over a numbered backup.

Goalkeepers (1)

PlayerStat

Gregor Kobel#1Jersey-boosted↗Borussia Dortmund

20c68save%0.83

Defenders (4)

PlayerStat

Manuel Akanji#5↗Inter Milan

79c50tackles0.89

Nico Elvedi#4↗Borussia Mönchengladbach

65c46tackles0.87

Silvan Widmer#3Jersey-boosted↘Mainz 05

58c74tackles0.36

Ricardo Rodriguez#13Caps-driven↘Betis

136c47tackles0.24

Midfielders (3)

PlayerStat

Granit Xhaka#10Caps-driven→Sunderland

144c13assists0.61

Denis Zakaria#6Jersey-boosted↘Monaco [ a ]

63c4assists0.41

Remo Freuler#8Caps-driven→Bologna

86c9assists0.30

Forwards (3)

PlayerStat

Breel Embolo#7Caps-driven↘Rennes

85c23goals0.63

Rubén Vargas#17Caps-driven→Sevilla

60c11goals0.28

Dan Ndoye#11Jersey-boosted↗Nottingham Forest

29c6goals0.53

Bench

★ likely first sub badge on the top-3 by first-sub score within each position group, plus a late-game impact rating where club per-90 stats are available.

Goalkeepers (2)

PlayerStat

Yvon Mvogo#12Jersey-boosted→Lorient★ Likely first sub

12c74save%0.60

Marvin Keller#21Rating-drivenYoung Boys★ Likely first sub

0c—0.75

Defenders (4)

PlayerStat

Miro Muheim#2Jersey-boostedHamburger SV★ Likely first subimpact 18/100

8c—0.61

Eray Cömert#18↘Valencia★ Likely first subimpact 14/100

20c—0.33

Aurèle Amenda#24Rating-drivenEintracht Frankfurt★ Likely first subimpact 7/100

6c—0.36

Luca Jaquez#25Rating-drivenVfB Stuttgartimpact 6/100

2c—0.22

Midfielders (6)

PlayerStat

Djibril Sow#15Caps-driven↗Sevillaimpact 14/100

50c4assists0.35

Michel Aebischer#20Caps-driven→Pisaimpact 14/100

38c2assists0.41

Fabian Rieder#22FC Augsburg★ Likely first subimpact 30/100

27c3assists0.52

Christian Fassnacht#16Jersey-boostedYoung Boys★ Likely first sub

21c3assists0.42

Johan Manzambi#9Jersey-boostedSC Freiburg★ Likely first subimpact 32/100

10c1assists0.63

Ardon Jashari#14Jersey-boostedMilanimpact 17/100

6c2assists0.35

Forwards (3)

PlayerStat

Zeki Amdouni#23Goals-drivenBurnley★ Likely first subimpact 29/100

27c11goals0.37

Cedric Itten#26Fortuna Düsseldorf★ Likely first subimpact 39/100

13c5goals0.36

Noah Okafor#19Jersey-boostedLeeds United★ Likely first sub

24c2goals0.00

▸How to read this squad— 4 columns explained

Pos: Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
Caps: Senior international appearances. Used by the model as a recency-weighted signal of how often the manager calls the player up.
Stat: Position-aware stat: career international goals for forwards; career international assists for midfielders (Transfermarkt); latest available Big-5 club season's total tackles for defenders (FBref); latest available Big-5 club season's save percentage for goalkeepers (FBref). Em-dash when no data is joined — most often for defenders and keepers at non-Big-5 clubs.
Rating: Composite rating (Model #4) — combines recent caps + goals, recent club xG and xAG per 90, position-relative quality, and call-up priors. Higher = the model thinks the player is more likely to start. Typically 0.9 (depth) to 2.5 (elite).

★ Likely first sub — the bench player the model rates most likely to be the first substitute for their position. Computed from a first-sub score (cap-recency + impact rating); ties broken by Rating.

Selection driver — coloured chips show which input dominates a player's selection score. Caps-driven = selected mainly on international experience. Rating-driven = selected mainly on club performance quality. Jersey-boosted = jersey number from a recent squad snapshot lifted their score. Goals-driven = international goal record was the decisive factor. No chip when the score is a balanced blend.

Squad cohesion

Projected XI · club overlap

Pairwise club minutes: 1.23%; Share of the 55-pair × 3000-minute ceiling. Higher = more of the XI plays together at club level.

Club concentration: 0.107; How concentrated the XI is across clubs. 0.091 = 11 different clubs · 1.000 = all the same club.

Top-3 clubs share: 36%; 4 of 11 play for the three most common clubs in the XI.

Top clubs in projected XI

Monaco2
Borussia Dortmund1
Mainz 051

Most-connected club pair

Denis Zakaria + Breel Embolo — Monaco, 2024-25 · 2,028 shared minutes

Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →

Squad depth

Projected XI · replaceability

Most irreplaceable starters

Dan NdoyeWingerLikely cover: Noah Okafor · 0.00Leeds United0.53gap to repl.
Manuel AkanjiCentre-backLikely cover: Aurèle Amenda · 0.36Eintracht Frankfurt0.53gap to repl.
Nico ElvediCentre-backLikely cover: Aurèle Amenda · 0.36Eintracht Frankfurt0.51gap to repl.

Gap to repl. = how far this nation's rating at the position falls from the starter to his likely in-squad replacement (named above). Larger = harder to replace.

Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →

Gruppenspielplan

Group-stage schedule

MD	Date	Opponent	Venue
1	Jun 13, 2026	Qatar	Santa Clara, United States
2	Jun 18, 2026	Bosnia and Herzegovina	Inglewood, United States
3	Jun 24, 2026	Canada	Vancouver, Canada

Direktvergleiche

Prognostizierte Torschützen: Switzerland →

Erzählstränge

Storylines

Updated 49 days ago

Form trend

Gained 79 international Elo points over the last 12 months — current rating 1950.

Top scorerBreel Embolo

Model's top anytime-scorer for the team — 27% probability of scoring at least once, rank #11 of all players.

League pedigree

18 of 25 predicted-squad players played in a top-5 European league last season — top-tier league pedigree across the squad.

Teen starterJohan Manzambi

20 at kickoff — 10 caps — projected on the bench, the squad's youngest pick.

Form & Bilanz

Video analysis: Switzerland

Performance data from official highlights analysis across 5 matches. 17 players observed, 15 events tracked.

Swiss GoalkeeperStandout performer

Made several crucial saves to maintain Switzerland's lead and secure a clean sheet in the highlights.

Goals

Shots

Saves

Fouls won

Cards

Rating spread(30 ratings)

8+ (10)7 (7)6 (11)5- (2)

Match by match

Player ratings (17)

Swiss Goalkeeper1 app

▼

Made several crucial saves to maintain Switzerland's lead and secure a clean sheet in the highlights.

r32-0138Made several crucial saves to maintain Switzerland's lead and secure a clean sheet in the highlights.

7.7

Johan Manzambi3 apps · 2 events

1 goal

698

▼

Came on as a substitute, was fouled, and had a shot saved.

gs-0046Came on as a substitute, was fouled, and had a shot saved.

gs-0519Contributed a goal and a crucial assist, directly impacting two of Switzerland's goals.

r32-0138Opened the scoring for Switzerland and created the opportunity for the second goal.

7.5

Dan Ndoye2 apps · 3 events

1 goal2 shots (2 on target)

▼

Created numerous attacking opportunities, forced several saves, and was fouled.

gs-0047Created numerous attacking opportunities, forced several saves, and was fouled.

gs-0518Scored a crucial goal by reacting quickly to a loose ball in the penalty area.

7.5

Gregor Kobel2 apps · 5 events

5 saves

▼

Made good saves to deny early Qatar attacks and maintain his team's lead for most of the game.

gs-0047Made good saves to deny early Qatar attacks and maintain his team's lead for most of the game.

gs-0518Made several critical saves, including from set pieces, to preserve Switzerland's lead.

Breel Embolo4 apps · 2 events

1 goal1 shot (1 on target)

8848

▼

Scored the opening goal from the penalty spot with composure.

gs-0048Scored the opening goal from the penalty spot with composure.

gs-0518Scored Switzerland's opening goal and maintained a strong attacking presence.

r16-0084Scored a crucial equalizer but was later sent off for simulation, which significantly impacted his team.

r32-0138Scored Switzerland's second goal and was a constant threat, despite being denied multiple times later.

Remo Freuler1 app

▼

Won the penalty that led to his team's opening goal.

gs-0047Won the penalty that led to his team's opening goal.

Ruben Vargas1 app

▼

Was fouled twice, leading to two yellow cards for an opponent, and had several shots.

gs-0047Was fouled twice, leading to two yellow cards for an opponent, and had several shots.

Ricardo Rodriguez3 apps

678

▼

Played for most of the match without making a significant impact.

gs-0046Played for most of the match without making a significant impact.

r16-0087Provided a crucial assist that led to Switzerland's equalizer, showcasing his offensive contribution from defense.

r32-0138Doubled Switzerland's lead with a precise strike, contributing significantly from a defensive position.

Steven Zuber1 app

▼

Zuber was an energetic presence on the wing, actively involved in both attacking movements and defensive pressing for Switzerland.

gs-0287Zuber was an energetic presence on the wing, actively involved in both attacking movements and defensive pressing for Switzerland.

6.5

Rubén Vargas2 apps · 2 events

1 goal1 shot (1 on target)

▼

Scored a goal and maintained an attacking threat throughout the match.

gs-0518Scored a goal and maintained an attacking threat throughout the match.

r16-0085Had his penalty saved during the shootout, which was a missed opportunity for his team.

6.5

Granit Xhaka2 apps

▼

Had a couple of shots but did not make a decisive impact.

gs-0046Had a couple of shots but did not make a decisive impact.

r16-0087Recovered from an early mistake to contribute offensively with a shot on target and a confidently converted penalty.

Fabian Rieder2 apps · 1 events

1 shot (1 on target)

▼

Came on as a substitute and had a shot saved.

gs-0046Came on as a substitute and had a shot saved.

gs-0516Created a clear scoring chance but failed to convert it.

Denis Zakaria2 apps

▼

Had shots on goal but did not significantly influence the game.

gs-0046Had shots on goal but did not significantly influence the game.

r32-0136Involved in a defensive action, contributing to midfield stability.

Silvan Widmer1 app

▼

Came on as a late substitute without making a notable impact.

gs-0046Came on as a late substitute without making a notable impact.

Michel Aebischer1 app

▼

Had a shot on target before being substituted.

gs-0046Had a shot on target before being substituted.

Zeki Amdouni1 app

▼

Was fouled during his time on the pitch.

gs-0046Was fouled during his time on the pitch.

Cedric Itten1 app

▼

Scored his penalty with power and accuracy, maintaining Switzerland's advantage in the shootout.

r16-0086Scored his penalty with power and accuracy, maintaining Switzerland's advantage in the shootout.

Match observations

gs-004The match was a closely contested affair, with both teams creating opportunities. Switzerland initially gained a lead from a penalty, but Qatar fought back to secure a late equaliser.
gs-004Qatar's goalkeeper, Mahmoud Abunada, delivered a strong performance, making numerous saves to keep his team in contention throughout the game.
gs-004The game saw a dramatic finish, with Qatar scoring in stoppage time to level the score, leading to jubilant celebrations from their players and fans.
gs-028The match began with an electric atmosphere, with both sets of supporters creating a vibrant backdrop.
gs-028Switzerland demonstrated composure in possession, building attacks from midfield.
gs-028Bosnia and Herzegovina adopted a compact defensive approach, showing discipline to limit clear opportunities for Switzerland.
gs-051The match was an exciting affair with both teams creating scoring opportunities.
gs-051Switzerland took a commanding lead in the second half with two quick goals.
gs-051Canada fought back, reducing the deficit and pressing for an equalizer.
r16-008The match between Switzerland and Colombia was a tightly contested affair, ending in a goalless draw after extra time.
r16-008Both teams created several scoring opportunities throughout the game, with Colombia particularly unlucky to hit the crossbar twice.
r16-008The game was ultimately decided by a penalty shootout, where Switzerland emerged victorious.
r32-013Switzerland secured a comfortable 2-0 victory over Algeria in a match that saw both teams create scoring opportunities.
r32-013The Swiss side demonstrated greater clinical finishing, converting two of their chances while Algeria struggled to find the back of the net.
r32-013The Algerian goalkeeper delivered a strong performance, making multiple important saves to prevent a wider margin of defeat.

Statistical profile

Pragmatic

Attack

Attack rating1.0811th/48

Shots per match11.424th/48

Chance quality0.13217th/48

Defence

Defence rating0.7726th/48

Goalkeeper rating0.6614th/48

GK: Gregor Kobel

Set pieces

Set-piece goal share10.3%28th/48

Penalty conversion71.4%44th/48

Penalty save rate20.0%45th/48

Style

Possession50.2%22nd/48

Press intensity22.827th/48

Directness5.430th/48

Crossing volume469.213th/48

Long ball volume33.725th/48

Build-up length6.912th/48

Squad

Avg. minutes per starter1,99310th/48

Club familiarity0.01212th/48

Workload class: light

Attack and defence ratings from the model; style metrics from recent international matches; penalty rates via Bayesian estimation; goalkeeper rating from shot-prevention data. Rank is out of 48 tournament teams.

Where goals come from

Phase of play · scored & conceded

Scored26 goals · 218 shots

Conceded25 goals · 264 shots

Open play
Set piece
Counter
Penalty

Share of goals by how the chance began, across 18 matches (Euro2020,Euro2024,WC2018,WC2022). Shoot-out kicks are excluded. Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →

Group-stage matchups

vs Qatar2026-06-13

Win81.2%

Draw16.3%

Loss2.5%

Expected goals for2.59

Expected goals against0.62

Likeliest score0-2 (13.5%)

Both teams score43.2%

Clean sheet53.7%

Full fixture analysis →

vs Bosnia and Herzegovina2026-06-18

Win70.9%

Draw22.5%

Loss6.6%

Expected goals for1.83

Expected goals against0.63

Likeliest score0-1 (15.0%)

Both teams score39.9%

Clean sheet53.2%

Full fixture analysis →

vs Canada2026-06-24

Win58.3%

Draw25.5%

Loss16.3%

Expected goals for1.44

Expected goals against0.87

Likeliest score0-1 (13.5%)

Both teams score45.2%

Clean sheet41.9%

Full fixture analysis →

Probabilities from the calibrated ensemble model. xG from the Dixon–Coles fit. See each fixture page for full analysis.

Rating & probability history

12 snapshots · 2026-05-22 → 2026-06-24

Each point is one model build. The shaded band is the bootstrap 90% credible interval around the tournament-winner probability.

Recent form (10 matches)

Record6W · 3D · 1L

Goals25–8

Form

Date	Opponent	Score	Result	Competition
2026-03-31	ANorway	0–0	D	Friendly
2026-03-27	HGermany	3–4	L	Friendly
2025-11-18	AKosovo	1–1	D	FIFA World Cup qualification
2025-11-15	HSweden	4–1	W	FIFA World Cup qualification
2025-10-13	ASlovenia	0–0	D	FIFA World Cup qualification
2025-10-10	ASweden	2–0	W	FIFA World Cup qualification
2025-09-08	HSlovenia	3–0	W	FIFA World Cup qualification
2025-09-05	HKosovo	4–0	W	FIFA World Cup qualification
2025-06-10	AUnited States	4–0	W	Friendly
2025-06-07	NMexico	4–2	W	Friendly

martj42 international results (CC0) · last 10 matches · ~2 years.

Head-to-head vs group opponents

Opponent	Meetings	W-D-L	Last meeting
Bosnia and Herzegovina	2	1-0-1	2026 — Win (4–1) · FIFA World Cup
Qatar	2	0-1-1	2026 — Draw (1–1) · FIFA World Cup
Canada	1	0-0-1	2002 — Loss (1–3) · Friendly

All meetings via the martj42 international results dataset.

Major tournaments — most recent appearance

Tournament	Year	Finish	W-D-L	Since then
UEFA Euro	2024	Quarter-finals	2-3-0	Same head coach (Murat Yakin) since 2021 21/30 of current pool (70%) were active that year
FIFA World Cup	2022	Round of 16	2-0-2	Same head coach (Murat Yakin) since 2021 18/30 of current pool (60%) were active that year

Source: FIFA archives. Penalty outcomes resolved to W/L.

Most similar past team-tournaments

Closest comparable teams from past major tournaments (1990-2024), by squad strength, group draw, and recent form. Shown for context, not a prediction.

England · Euro 2016
Exited at the round of 16
Comparable pre-tournament strength (Elo 2006) and group draw.
Italy · World Cup 2010
Exited at the group stage
Germany · Euro 2008
Finished runner-up

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WC2026 results

Turnierausblick

Analysis

How they play

Path to success

What they must execute

Controversial take

Key numbers

How they play

Group B finish · Switzerland?

Stage progression · Switzerland?

Likely knockout path · Switzerland

Der Kader

Predicted squad?

Squad cohesion

Top clubs in projected XI

Most-connected club pair

Squad depth

Most irreplaceable starters

Gruppenspielplan

Group-stage schedule

Direktvergleiche

Erzählstränge

Form & Bilanz

Video analysis: Switzerland

Match by match

Player ratings (17)

Match observations

Statistical profile

Attack

Defence

Set pieces

Style

Squad

Where goals come from

Group-stage matchups

Rating & probability history

Recent form (10 matches)

Head-to-head vs group opponents

Major tournaments — most recent appearance

Most similar past team-tournaments

See all 104 match forecasts

Group B finish · Switzerland

Stage progression · Switzerland

Predicted squad