United States ★
Snapshot · 2026-06-24Model 1.0.0CONCACAF·Group D·FIFA #14
Tim Ream: 38 at kickoff with 80 caps — probably his final World Cup.
Recent formation: 4-3-3 (4 of 4)
- Rival
- Australia (#26)
- Key
- Folarin Balogun (FW)
Final squad announced · United States · 2026-06-01
Source: Diario AS ↗WC2026 results
Tournament outlook
Analysis
United States have home advantage as tournament hosts, and the model rates them at 0.1% to lift the trophy (33rd in the field). Tim Ream — 38 at kickoff with 80 caps — probably his final world cup. Drawn in Group D alongside Australia, Paraguay, Turkey, they are projected at 73.7% to advance to the knockout stage.
How they play
United States under Mauricio Pochettino play a balanced game with 50% possession. Their likely shape is a 4-3-3. They sit deeper and pick their moments to press (PPDA 27.7).
Path to success
In Group D alongside Australia, Paraguay, Turkey, United States are projected at 73.7% to advance from the group stage. Qualification to the knockout rounds is the primary target. The round of 32 probability sits at 32.3%. The expanded 48-team format gives smaller federations more runway, and upsets in the group stage are a fixture of every World Cup.
What they must execute
United States will need to leverage their strengths while managing the physical demands of a tournament spread across three host countries. Managing minutes for Tim Ream across what could be seven matches will test the coaching staff's rotation planning.
Controversial take
The model and FIFA rankings tell different stories for United States. Model rates them #26 by tournament-winner probability — 12 places lower than FIFA #14.
Key numbers
How they play
Style vs the 48-team field
Balanced · style profile from 7 recent matches
What to watch: an open-play creation profile, light on set pieces.
Percentiles position United States against the 48-team field. Higher means more of that trait, not better or worse. Press is inverted (lower PPDA = higher press); width uses crossing rate as a proxy; tempo is open-play passes per minute of possession. Descriptive style analytics; does not feed the published probabilities.
Group D finish · United States
Monte Carlo, 100,000 simsTop two advance to the round of 32; best 8 of 12 third-placed teams also qualify.
- 31.9%1st (group winner)Advances to R32
- 26.4%2nd (runner-up)Advances to R32
- 22.5%3rdAdvances only if among the best 8 of 12 third-placed teams
- 19.2%4thEliminated
Stage progression · United States
, 100,000 sims- 76.2%AdvAdvance from group
- 36.1%R16Round of 16
- 13.0%QFQuarter-final
- 4.0%SFSemi-final
- 1.3%FFinal
- 0.4%WinWin the tournament
Likely knockout path · United States
Monte Carlo, 10,000 simsThe squad
Confirmed squad
Wikipedia call-up pool · snapshot 2026-05-28Roster confirmed by the federation's official squad announcement. The XI/bench split below is the model's composite-rating ordering, not the head coach's lineup.
★ likely first sub badge on the top-3 by first-sub score within each position group, plus a late-game impact rating where club per-90 stats are available.
▸How to read this squad— 4 columns explained
- Pos
- Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
- Caps
- Senior international appearances. Used by the model as a recency-weighted signal of how often the manager calls the player up.
- Stat
- Position-aware stat: career international goals for forwards; career international assists for midfielders (Transfermarkt); latest available Big-5 club season's total tackles for defenders (FBref); latest available Big-5 club season's save percentage for goalkeepers (FBref). Em-dash when no data is joined — most often for defenders and keepers at non-Big-5 clubs.
- Rating
- Composite rating (Model #4) — combines recent caps + goals, recent club xG and xAG per 90, position-relative quality, and call-up priors. Higher = the model thinks the player is more likely to start. Typically 0.9 (depth) to 2.5 (elite).
Selection driver — coloured chips show which input dominates a player's selection score. Caps-driven = selected mainly on international experience. Rating-driven = selected mainly on club performance quality. Jersey-boosted = jersey number from a recent squad snapshot lifted their score. Goals-driven = international goal record was the decisive factor. No chip when the score is a balanced blend.
Squad cohesion
Projected XI · club overlap
Low coverage: 5/11 of the projected XI have club-minutes rows in our ratings table. Numbers below are structurally suppressed and should be read alongside the resolved count, not in isolation.
- Pairwise club minutes
- 0.92%
- Share of the 55-pair × 3000-minute ceiling. Higher = more of the XI plays together at club level.
- Club concentration
- 0.280
- How concentrated the XI is across clubs. 0.091 = 11 different clubs · 1.000 = all the same club.
- Top-3 clubs share
- 80%
- 4 of 5 play for the three most common clubs in the XI.
Top clubs in projected XI
- Fulham2
- Juventus1
- AC Milan1
Most-connected club pair
Antonee Robinson + Tim Ream — Fulham, 2023-24 · 1,513 shared minutes
Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Squad depth
Projected XI · replaceability
Most irreplaceable starters
- Christian PulisicWingerLikely cover: Alejandro Zendejas · 0.57América0.27gap to repl.
- Tyler AdamsDefensive midfieldLikely cover: no natural backupreplacement-level DM ~0.250.26gap to repl.
- Antonee RobinsonFull-backLikely cover: Joe Scally · 0.77Borussia Mönchengladbach0.22gap to repl.
Gap to repl. = how far this nation's rating at the position falls from the starter to his likely in-squad replacement (named above). Larger = harder to replace.
Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Group schedule
Group-stage schedule
Head-to-head matchups
Storylines
Storylines
Updated 28 days ago38 at kickoff with 80 caps — probably his final World Cup.
Model's top anytime-scorer for the team — 28% probability of scoring at least once, rank #9 of all players.
First World Cup as head coach, appointed 2024.
Model rates them #26 by tournament-winner probability — 12 places lower than FIFA #14.
Form & track record
Video analysis: United States
Performance data from official highlights analysis across 2 matches. 6 players observed, 7 events tracked.
Scored two crucial goals for the USA, demonstrating clinical finishing and a strong offensive presence.
2 goalsMatch by match
Player ratings (6)
9Folarin Balogun1 app · 3 events2 goals9▼
Scored two crucial goals for the USA, demonstrating clinical finishing and a strong offensive presence.
9Matt Turner1 app9▼
Made multiple crucial saves, especially in the second half, to secure the clean sheet and the team's victory.
8Dest1 app · 2 events1 goal1 shot8▼
Scored a crucial goal that doubled the USA's lead and contributed to offensive pressure.
8Gio Reyna1 app8▼
Contributed a well-placed goal for the USA, adding to their commanding lead.
7Weston McKennie1 app · 1 events1 shot (1 on target)7▼
Showed good attacking intent with a notable shot on goal that tested the opposition goalkeeper.
7Balogun1 app · 1 events1 shot7▼
Created a good scoring opportunity through a strong run and shot, demonstrating his direct attacking style.
Match observations
- gs-007The event commenced with an elaborate pre-game ceremony, featuring national anthems and a fireworks display, which generated a vibrant atmosphere.
- gs-007The crowd was highly engaged and enthusiastic, both within the stadium and in external viewing locations, reacting with great excitement to the goals.
- gs-007The USA team showcased effective offensive movements, leading to several successful attempts on goal during the compilation.
- gs-031The match saw the United States secure a 2-0 victory over Australia in a competitive encounter.
- gs-031The USA took an early lead through an unfortunate own goal, which was then extended by a second goal confirmed after a VAR review.
- gs-031Australia created numerous attacking opportunities, particularly in the second half, but were unable to convert them into goals.
Statistical profile
BalancedAttack
Defence
GK: Matt Turner
Set pieces
Style
Squad
Workload class: light
Attack and defence ratings from the model; style metrics from recent international matches; penalty rates via Bayesian estimation; goalkeeper rating from shot-prevention data. Rank is out of 48 tournament teams.
Where goals come from
Phase of play · scored & conceded
- Open play
- Set piece
- Counter
- Penalty
Share of goals by how the chance began, across 7 matches (CopaAmerica2024,WC2022). Shoot-out kicks are excluded. Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Group-stage matchups
Probabilities from the calibrated ensemble model. xG from the Dixon–Coles fit. See each fixture page for full analysis.
Rating & probability history
12 snapshots · 2026-05-22 → 2026-06-24United States trajectory: 12 snapshots between 2026-05-22 and 2026-06-24 (33 days). Elo moved from 1721.0 to 1721.0 (0). Tournament-winner probability moved from 0.1% to 0.4% (+0.2pp).
Each point is one model build. The shaded band is the bootstrap 90% credible interval around the tournament-winner probability.
Recent form (10 matches)
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | HPortugal | 0–2 | L | Friendly |
| 2026-03-28 | HBelgium | 2–5 | L | Friendly |
| 2025-11-18 | HUruguay | 5–1 | W | Friendly |
| 2025-11-15 | HParaguay | 2–1 | W | Friendly |
| 2025-10-14 | HAustralia | 2–1 | W | Friendly |
| 2025-10-10 | HEcuador | 1–1 | D | Friendly |
| 2025-09-09 | HJapan | 2–0 | W | Friendly |
| 2025-09-06 | HSouth Korea | 0–2 | L | Friendly |
| 2025-07-06 | HMexico | 1–2 | L | Gold Cup |
| 2025-07-02 | HGuatemala | 2–1 | W | Gold Cup |
martj42 international results (CC0) · last 10 matches · ~2 years.
Head-to-head vs group opponents
| Opponent | Meetings | W-D-L | Last meeting |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paraguay | 10 | 6-2-2 | 2026 — Win (4–1) · FIFA World Cup |
| Australia | 5 | 3-1-1 | 2026 — Win (2–0) · FIFA World Cup |
| Turkey | 5 | 2-1-2 | 2025 — Loss (1–2) · Friendly |
All meetings via the martj42 international results dataset.
Major tournaments — most recent appearance
| Tournament | Year | Finish | W-D-L | Since then |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold Cup | 2025 | Runner-up | 4-1-1 |
|
| Copa América | 2024 | Group stage | 1-0-2 |
|
| FIFA World Cup | 2022 | Round of 16 | 1-2-1 |
|
Source: FIFA archives. Penalty outcomes resolved to W/L.
Standard Pass
See all 104 match forecasts
Unlock match probabilities, expected goals, scoreline distributions, and per-player scoring chances across all 104 matches.
Every forecast graded against the real result, scored on 987 matches since 2014. See the scorecard.
24h money-back, no questions asked·No subscription, no auto-renewal·Access through 31 Dec 2026. See refund policy.