Pre-match projection. Probabilities are frozen approximately 6 hours before kickoff to provide a stable pre-match reference.

United States vs Turkey

2026 FIFA World Cup·Group D·Head-to-head

Snapshot · 2026-05-28

All-time head-to-head

Meetings
5
United States W-D-L
2-1-2
Last meeting
2025Loss (12)

All-time record from United States's perspective. Counts every senior international meeting (friendlies and tournaments) in the martj42 dataset; penalty-shootout outcomes resolve knockout draws.

Model forecast

Draw
25.8%
43.5%

The model's win, draw and win probabilities for this group-stage meeting. Full forecast — expected goals, scoreline distribution, and per-player scoring →

Frequently asked

What is the head-to-head record between United States and Turkey?
United States and Turkey have met 5 times. From United States's perspective the all-time record is 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses. Their most recent meeting was a 2025 loss (1–2) at the Friendly.
What does the model predict for United States vs Turkey?
OnThePitch's model rates United States at 31% to win, with a 26% chance of a draw and 43% for Turkey.
When do United States and Turkey play at the 2026 World Cup?
They meet in the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup in Group D. Venue and kick-off details appear on the match page once confirmed.

Other Group D matchups

How this is computed. Win/draw/ win probabilities come from a calibrated Dixon-Coles ensemble. See methodology.