Pre-match projection. Probabilities are frozen approximately 6 hours before kickoff to provide a stable pre-match reference.

United States vs Paraguay

2026 FIFA World Cup·Group D·Head-to-head

Snapshot · 2026-05-28

All-time head-to-head

Meetings
9
United States W-D-L
5-2-2
Last meeting
2025Win (21)

All-time record from United States's perspective. Counts every senior international meeting (friendlies and tournaments) in the martj42 dataset; penalty-shootout outcomes resolve knockout draws.

Model forecast

Draw
29.4%

The model's win, draw and win probabilities for this group-stage meeting. Full forecast — expected goals, scoreline distribution, and per-player scoring →

Frequently asked

What is the head-to-head record between United States and Paraguay?
United States and Paraguay have met 9 times. From United States's perspective the all-time record is 5 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses. Their most recent meeting was a 2025 win (2–1) at the Friendly.
What does the model predict for United States vs Paraguay?
OnThePitch's model rates United States at 32% to win, with a 29% chance of a draw and 38% for Paraguay.
When do United States and Paraguay play at the 2026 World Cup?
They meet in the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup in Group D. Venue and kick-off details appear on the match page once confirmed.

Other Group D matchups

How this is computed. Win/draw/ win probabilities come from a calibrated Dixon-Coles ensemble. See methodology.