Sweden
Snapshot · 2026-06-24Model 1.0.0UEFA·Group F·FIFA #—
Transition-heavy side.
- Rival
- Netherlands (#7)
- Key
- Emil Forsberg (MF)
Final squad announced · Sweden · 2026-05-30
Source: FC Dallas ↗WC2026 results
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 14 | Tunisia | 5–1 | W | Guadalupe |
| Jun 20 | Netherlands | 1–5 | L | Houston |
Tournament outlook
Analysis
Sweden carry a 0.2% probability of winning the tournament (30th of 48). Watch for Lucas Bergvall — 20 at kickoff — 8 caps — projected on the bench, the squad's youngest pick. Drawn in Group F alongside Netherlands, Japan, Tunisia, they are projected at 56.4% to advance to the knockout stage.
How they play
Sweden under Graham Potter play a transition heavy game, with just 36% possession — among the lowest in the field. They sit deeper and pick their moments to press (PPDA 31.2) and move the ball forward quickly at 5.2 passes per attack. They are selective in their shooting (10.0 per 90) and rely heavily on set pieces (19% of their xG).
Path to success
In Group F alongside Netherlands, Japan, Tunisia, Sweden are projected at 56.4% to advance from the group stage. Qualification to the knockout rounds is the primary target. The round of 32 probability sits at 16.6%. The expanded 48-team format gives smaller federations more runway, and upsets in the group stage are a fixture of every World Cup.
What they must execute
Sweden rely on defensive discipline and quick transitions — absorbing pressure and converting turnovers into attacking chances. Concentration and defensive organisation for full 90-minute stretches will determine whether the approach holds against top opposition.
Controversial take
The model's assessment of Sweden broadly aligns with their FIFA ranking — no major disagreement between the two systems for this squad.
Key numbers
How they play
Style vs the 48-team field
Transition-heavy · style profile from 9 recent matches
What to watch: a notably direct, vertical attack.
Percentiles position Sweden against the 48-team field. Higher means more of that trait, not better or worse. Press is inverted (lower PPDA = higher press); width uses crossing rate as a proxy; tempo is open-play passes per minute of possession. Descriptive style analytics; does not feed the published probabilities.
Group F finish · Sweden
Monte Carlo, 100,000 simsTop two advance to the round of 32; best 8 of 12 third-placed teams also qualify.
- 9.8%1st (group winner)Advances to R32
- 20.8%2nd (runner-up)Advances to R32
- 36.4%3rdAdvances only if among the best 8 of 12 third-placed teams
- 32.9%4thEliminated
Stage progression · Sweden
, 100,000 sims- 55.0%AdvAdvance from group
- 17.5%R16Round of 16
- 6.8%QFQuarter-final
- 2.4%SFSemi-final
- 0.7%FFinal
- 0.2%WinWin the tournament
Likely knockout path · Sweden
Monte Carlo, 10,000 simsThe squad
Confirmed squad
Wikipedia call-up pool · snapshot 2026-05-28Roster confirmed by the federation's official squad announcement. The XI/bench split below is the model's composite-rating ordering, not the head coach's lineup.
★ likely first sub badge on the top-3 by first-sub score within each position group, plus a late-game impact rating where club per-90 stats are available.
▸How to read this squad— 4 columns explained
- Pos
- Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
- Caps
- Senior international appearances. Used by the model as a recency-weighted signal of how often the manager calls the player up.
- Stat
- Position-aware stat: career international goals for forwards; career international assists for midfielders (Transfermarkt); latest available Big-5 club season's total tackles for defenders (FBref); latest available Big-5 club season's save percentage for goalkeepers (FBref). Em-dash when no data is joined — most often for defenders and keepers at non-Big-5 clubs.
- Rating
- Composite rating (Model #4) — combines recent caps + goals, recent club xG and xAG per 90, position-relative quality, and call-up priors. Higher = the model thinks the player is more likely to start. Typically 0.9 (depth) to 2.5 (elite).
Selection driver — coloured chips show which input dominates a player's selection score. Caps-driven = selected mainly on international experience. Rating-driven = selected mainly on club performance quality. Jersey-boosted = jersey number from a recent squad snapshot lifted their score. Goals-driven = international goal record was the decisive factor. No chip when the score is a balanced blend.
Squad cohesion
Projected XI · club overlap
- Pairwise club minutes
- 0.00%
- Share of the 55-pair × 3000-minute ceiling. Higher = more of the XI plays together at club level.
- Club concentration
- 0.111
- How concentrated the XI is across clubs. 0.091 = 11 different clubs · 1.000 = all the same club.
- Top-3 clubs share
- 33%
- 3 of 9 play for the three most common clubs in the XI.
Top clubs in projected XI
- Aston Villa1
- Manchester United1
- Atalanta1
Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Squad depth
Projected XI · replaceability
Most irreplaceable starters
- Lucas BergvallCentral midfieldLikely cover: Besfort Zeneli · 0.46Union Saint-Gilloise0.37gap to repl.
- Alexander IsakStrikerLikely cover: Gustaf Nilsson · 0.62Club Brugge0.33gap to repl.
- Yasin AyariCentral midfieldLikely cover: Besfort Zeneli · 0.46Union Saint-Gilloise0.23gap to repl.
Gap to repl. = how far this nation's rating at the position falls from the starter to his likely in-squad replacement (named above). Larger = harder to replace.
Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Group schedule
Group-stage schedule
| MD | Date | Opponent | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jun 14, 2026 | Tunisia | Guadalupe, Mexico |
| 2 | Jun 20, 2026 | Netherlands | Houston, United States |
| 3 | Jun 25, 2026 | Japan | Arlington, United States |
Head-to-head matchups
Storylines
Storylines
Updated 28 days ago3 group-stage matches at venues averaging 26°C+ — Monterrey, Houston, Dallas (peak 29.4°C average).
First World Cup as head coach, appointed 2025.
Takes corners and free kicks — the team's dead-ball threat.
20 at kickoff — 8 caps — projected on the bench, the squad's youngest pick.
Form & track record
Video analysis: Sweden
Performance data from official highlights analysis across 2 matches. 12 players observed, 20 events tracked.
Scored two goals and provided an assist, showcasing clinical finishing and playmaking ability.
2 goalsMatch by match
Player ratings (12)
9Viktor Gyökeres1 app · 4 events2 goals9▼
Scored two goals and provided an assist, showcasing clinical finishing and playmaking ability.
9Mattias Svanberg1 app · 3 events2 goals9▼
Scored two goals shortly after coming on as a substitute, demonstrating immediate impact and clinical finishing.
9Yasin Ayari1 app · 2 events2 goals9▼
Scored two crucial goals, including the opener and a powerful late strike, demonstrating excellent finishing.
8Alexander Isak1 app · 2 events1 goal8▼
Scored a goal and was instrumental in creating another by winning possession high up the pitch.
7Elanga1 app · 1 events1 goal7▼
Scored Sweden's only goal with a composed finish and showed good individual dribbling ability.
7Kristoffer Nordfeldt1 app · 1 events1 save7▼
Made several important saves, preventing Tunisia from scoring more goals.
6Elliot Stroud1 app · 1 events6▼
Came on as a substitute but had no notable impact on the game.
6Gabriel Gudmundsson1 app · 1 events6▼
Played a significant portion of the match without any distinct positive or negative contributions.
6Jesper Karlström1 app · 1 events6▼
Played a significant portion of the match without any distinct positive or negative contributions.
6Daniel Svensson1 app · 1 events6▼
Came on as a late substitute but had no notable impact on the game.
6Ayari1 app · 1 events1 shot (1 on target)6▼
Tested the goalkeeper with a strong shot, demonstrating attacking intent from midfield.
5Isak1 app · 2 events2 shots (2 on target)5▼
Despite multiple attempts and good movement, he was repeatedly denied by the goalkeeper and failed to convert his chances.
Match observations
- gs-012The match saw Sweden secure a commanding 5-1 victory over Tunisia.
- gs-012Sweden's offensive unit displayed impressive coordination, with multiple forwards finding the net.
- gs-012Tunisia managed to reduce the deficit with a header, but defensive lapses allowed Sweden to consistently extend their advantage.
- gs-035The match saw a dominant performance from the Netherlands, who secured a comfortable 5-1 victory over Sweden.
- gs-035The Dutch attack was clinical, converting multiple opportunities, particularly from wide areas.
- gs-035Sweden created several chances, but were repeatedly thwarted by the Netherlands' goalkeeper.
Statistical profile
Transition HeavyAttack
Defence
GK: Viktor Johansson
Set pieces
Style
Squad
Workload class: light
Attack and defence ratings from the model; style metrics from recent international matches; penalty rates via Bayesian estimation; goalkeeper rating from shot-prevention data. Rank is out of 48 tournament teams.
Where goals come from
Phase of play · scored & conceded
- Open play
- Set piece
- Counter
- Penalty
Share of goals by how the chance began, across 9 matches (Euro2020,WC2018). Shoot-out kicks are excluded. Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Group-stage matchups
Probabilities from the calibrated ensemble model. xG from the Dixon–Coles fit. See each fixture page for full analysis.
Rating & probability history
12 snapshots · 2026-05-22 → 2026-06-24Sweden trajectory: 12 snapshots between 2026-05-22 and 2026-06-24 (33 days). Elo moved from 1719.0 to 1719.0 (0). Tournament-winner probability moved from 0.1% to 0.2% (+0.1pp).
Each point is one model build. The shaded band is the bootstrap 90% credible interval around the tournament-winner probability.
Recent form (10 matches)
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | HPoland | 3–2 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2026-03-26 | NUkraine | 3–1 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-11-18 | HSlovenia | 1–1 | D | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-11-15 | ASwitzerland | 1–4 | L | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-10-13 | HKosovo | 0–1 | L | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-10-10 | HSwitzerland | 0–2 | L | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-09-08 | AKosovo | 0–2 | L | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-09-05 | ASlovenia | 2–2 | D | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-06-10 | HAlgeria | 4–3 | W | Friendly |
| 2025-06-06 | AHungary | 2–0 | W | Friendly |
martj42 international results (CC0) · last 10 matches · ~2 years.
Head-to-head vs group opponents
| Opponent | Meetings | W-D-L | Last meeting |
|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands | 26 | 8-5-13 | 2026 — Loss (1–5) · FIFA World Cup |
| Tunisia | 5 | 3-1-1 | 2026 — Win (5–1) · FIFA World Cup |
| Japan | 4 | 2-2-0 | 2002 — Draw (1–1) · Friendly |
All meetings via the martj42 international results dataset.
Major tournaments — most recent appearance
| Tournament | Year | Finish | W-D-L | Since then |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UEFA Euro | 2021 | Round of 16 | 2-1-1 |
|
| FIFA World Cup | 2018 | Quarter-finals | 3-0-2 |
|
Source: FIFA archives. Penalty outcomes resolved to W/L.
Most similar past team-tournaments
Closest comparable teams from past major tournaments (1990-2024), by squad strength, group draw, and recent form. Shown for context, not a prediction.
Switzerland · Euro 2016
Exited at the round of 16
Comparable pre-tournament strength (Elo 1806) and group draw.
Russia · Euro 2004
Exited at the group stage
Russia · Euro 2016
Exited at the group stage
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