Pre-match projection. Probabilities are frozen approximately 6 hours before kickoff to provide a stable pre-match reference.

Japan vs Sweden

2026 FIFA World Cup·Group F·Head-to-head

Snapshot · 2026-05-28

All-time head-to-head

Meetings
4
Japan W-D-L
0-2-2
Last meeting
2002Draw (11)

All-time record from Japan's perspective. Counts every senior international meeting (friendlies and tournaments) in the martj42 dataset; penalty-shootout outcomes resolve knockout draws.

Model forecast

51.4%
Draw
25.2%
23.3%

The model's win, draw and win probabilities for this group-stage meeting. Full forecast — expected goals, scoreline distribution, and per-player scoring →

Frequently asked

What is the head-to-head record between Japan and Sweden?
Japan and Sweden have met 4 times. From Japan's perspective the all-time record is 0 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses. Their most recent meeting was a 2002 draw (1–1) at the Friendly.
What does the model predict for Japan vs Sweden?
OnThePitch's model rates Japan at 51% to win, with a 25% chance of a draw and 23% for Sweden.
When do Japan and Sweden play at the 2026 World Cup?
They meet in the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup in Group F. Venue and kick-off details appear on the match page once confirmed.

Other Group F matchups

How this is computed. Win/draw/ win probabilities come from a calibrated Dixon-Coles ensemble. See methodology.