Iraq
Snapshot · 2026-06-24Model 1.0.0AFC·Group I·FIFA #—
Only 0 of 26 predicted-squad players played in a top-5 European league last season — the rest play home or in non-top-5 leagues.
- Rival
- France (#3)
- Key
- Aymen Hussein (FW)
Final squad announced · Iraq · 2026-06-01
Source: Reddit — /r/worldcup ↗WC2026 results
Tournament outlook
Analysis
Iraq carry a <0.1% probability of winning the tournament (46th of 48). Jalal Hassan — 35 at kickoff with 100 caps — probably his final world cup. Drawn in Group I alongside France, Senegal, Norway, they are projected at 12.9% to advance to the knockout stage.
How they play
Limited recent tournament data is available for Iraq's tactical profile. Early indicators suggest a balanced approach.
Path to success
In Group I alongside France, Senegal, Norway, Iraq are projected at 12.9% to advance from the group stage. A competitive group-stage showing — taking points off higher-ranked opponents — would mark a successful campaign. The expanded 48-team format gives smaller federations more runway, and upsets in the group stage are a fixture of every World Cup.
What they must execute
Iraq will need to leverage their strengths while managing the physical demands of a tournament spread across three host countries. Managing minutes for Jalal Hassan across what could be seven matches will test the coaching staff's rotation planning.
Controversial take
The model's assessment of Iraq broadly aligns with their FIFA ranking — no major disagreement between the two systems for this squad.
Key numbers
How they play
Style vs the 48-team field
Not enough recent match data on file to build a style profile for Iraq. Insufficient match coverage.
Percentiles position Iraq against the 48-team field. Higher means more of that trait, not better or worse. Press is inverted (lower PPDA = higher press); width uses crossing rate as a proxy; tempo is open-play passes per minute of possession. Descriptive style analytics; does not feed the published probabilities.
Group I finish · Iraq
Monte Carlo, 100,000 simsTop two advance to the round of 32; best 8 of 12 third-placed teams also qualify.
- 1.2%1st (group winner)Advances to R32
- 6.2%2nd (runner-up)Advances to R32
- 20.0%3rdAdvances only if among the best 8 of 12 third-placed teams
- 72.6%4thEliminated
Stage progression · Iraq
, 100,000 sims- 17.4%AdvAdvance from group
- 4.3%R16Round of 16
- 1.1%QFQuarter-final
- 0.3%SFSemi-final
- <0.1%FFinal
- <0.1%WinWin the tournament
Likely knockout path · Iraq
Monte Carlo, 10,000 simsThe squad
Confirmed squad
Model-predicted · snapshot 2026-05-28Roster confirmed by the federation's official squad announcement. The XI/bench split below is the model's composite-rating ordering, not the head coach's lineup.
★ likely first sub badge on the top-3 by first-sub score within each position group, plus a late-game impact rating where club per-90 stats are available.
▸How to read this squad— 4 columns explained
- Pos
- Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
- Caps
- Senior international appearances. Used by the model as a recency-weighted signal of how often the manager calls the player up.
- Stat
- Position-aware stat: career international goals for forwards; career international assists for midfielders (Transfermarkt); latest available Big-5 club season's total tackles for defenders (FBref); latest available Big-5 club season's save percentage for goalkeepers (FBref). Em-dash when no data is joined — most often for defenders and keepers at non-Big-5 clubs.
- Rating
- Composite rating (Model #4) — combines recent caps + goals, recent club xG and xAG per 90, position-relative quality, and call-up priors. Higher = the model thinks the player is more likely to start. Typically 0.9 (depth) to 2.5 (elite).
Selection driver — coloured chips show which input dominates a player's selection score. Caps-driven = selected mainly on international experience. Rating-driven = selected mainly on club performance quality. Jersey-boosted = jersey number from a recent squad snapshot lifted their score. Goals-driven = international goal record was the decisive factor. No chip when the score is a balanced blend.
Squad cohesion
Projected XI · club overlap
No club-minutes rows on file for any of the projected XI — this team draws its squad from leagues outside our coverage (Big-5 + understat). Cohesion can't be quantified here until additional league data is wired in.
Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Squad depth
Projected XI · replaceability
Most irreplaceable starters
- Ali Al-HamadiStrikerLikely cover: Ali Yousif · 0.05Al-Talaba0.36gap to repl.
- Aymen HusseinStrikerLikely cover: Ali Yousif · 0.05Al-Talaba0.14gap to repl.
- Mohanad AliStrikerLikely cover: Ali Yousif · 0.05Al-Talaba0.12gap to repl.
Gap to repl. = how far this nation's rating at the position falls from the starter to his likely in-squad replacement (named above). Larger = harder to replace.
Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Group schedule
Group-stage schedule
Head-to-head matchups
Storylines
Storylines
Updated 28 days agoOnly 0 of 26 predicted-squad players played in a top-5 European league last season — the rest play home or in non-top-5 leagues.
Gained 65 international Elo points over the last 12 months — current rating 1738.
5 of 26 predicted-squad players play their club football for Al-Zawraa — a single-club spine on the international side.
35 at kickoff with 100 caps — probably his final World Cup.
Form & track record
Video analysis: Iraq
Performance data from official highlights analysis across 1 match. 2 players observed, 0 events tracked.
Showcased attacking intent but lacked decisive contributions to the scoreline.
Player ratings (2)
6Unnamed Player #181 app6▼
Showcased attacking intent but lacked decisive contributions to the scoreline.
6Unnamed Player #151 app6▼
Displayed emotion and intensity but without specific impactful actions in the match.
Match observations
- gs-018The match concluded with Norway securing a dominant 4-1 victory over Iraq.
- gs-018The game featured a lively atmosphere, with both sets of supporters passionately engaging in chants and celebrations throughout the contest.
- gs-018Norway's attacking prowess was evident, particularly through the performance of their star striker, Erling Haaland.
Statistical profile
BalancedAttack
Defence
GK: Jalal Hassan
Set pieces
Style
Squad
Attack and defence ratings from the model; style metrics from recent international matches; penalty rates via Bayesian estimation; goalkeeper rating from shot-prevention data. Rank is out of 48 tournament teams.
Where goals come from
Phase of play · scored & conceded
Iraq hasn't appeared in the StatsBomb open-data tournaments, so there's no phase-of-play breakdown on file.
Group-stage matchups
Probabilities from the calibrated ensemble model. xG from the Dixon–Coles fit. See each fixture page for full analysis.
Rating & probability history
12 snapshots · 2026-05-22 → 2026-06-24Iraq trajectory: 12 snapshots between 2026-05-22 and 2026-06-24 (33 days). Elo moved from 1607.0 to 1607.0 (0). Tournament-winner probability moved from 0.0% to <0.1% (0pp).
Each point is one model build. The shaded band is the bootstrap 90% credible interval around the tournament-winner probability.
Recent form (10 matches)
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | NBolivia | 2–1 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-12-12 | NJordan | 0–1 | L | Arab Cup |
| 2025-12-09 | NAlgeria | 0–2 | L | Arab Cup |
| 2025-12-06 | NSudan | 2–0 | W | Arab Cup |
| 2025-12-03 | NBahrain | 2–1 | W | Arab Cup |
| 2025-11-18 | HUnited Arab Emirates | 2–1 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-11-13 | AUnited Arab Emirates | 1–1 | D | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-10-14 | ASaudi Arabia | 0–0 | D | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-10-11 | NIndonesia | 1–0 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-09-07 | AThailand | 1–0 | W | King's Cup |
martj42 international results (CC0) · last 10 matches · ~2 years.
Head-to-head vs group opponents
| Opponent | Meetings | W-D-L | Last meeting |
|---|---|---|---|
| France | 1 | 0-0-1 | 2026 — Loss (0–3) · FIFA World Cup |
| Norway | 1 | 0-0-1 | 2026 — Loss (1–4) · FIFA World Cup |
| Senegal | 0 | — | No prior meetings |
All meetings via the martj42 international results dataset.
Major tournaments — most recent appearance
| Tournament | Year | Finish | W-D-L | Since then |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Asian Cup | 2024 | Round of 16 | 3-0-1 |
|
| FIFA World Cup | 1986 | Group stage | 0-0-3 |
|
Source: FIFA archives. Penalty outcomes resolved to W/L.
Most similar past team-tournaments
Closest comparable teams from past major tournaments (1990-2024), by squad strength, group draw, and recent form. Shown for context, not a prediction.
Indonesia · Asian Cup 2000
Exited at the group stage
Comparable pre-tournament strength (Elo 1530) and group draw.
Thailand · Asian Cup 2004
Exited at the group stage
Malaysia · Asian Cup 2024
Exited at the group stage
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