Australia
Snapshot · 2026-06-24Model 1.0.0AFC·Group D·FIFA #26
Transition-heavy side with Mathew Ryan in goal.
Recent formation: 4-4-2 (2 of 4)
- Rival
- United States (#14)
- Key
- Brandon Borrello (FW)
Final squad announced · Australia · 2026-06-01
Source: Denver Gazette ↗WC2026 results
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 13 | Turkey | 2–0 | W | Vancouver |
| Jun 19 | United States | 0–2 | L | Seattle |
Tournament outlook
Analysis
Australia carry a 0.2% probability of winning the tournament (26th of 48). Watch for Nestory Irankunda — 20 at kickoff — 13 caps. Drawn in Group D alongside United States, Paraguay, Turkey, they are projected at 61.5% to advance to the knockout stage.
How they play
Australia under Tony Popovic play a transition heavy game, with just 44% possession — among the lowest in the field. Their likely shape is a 4-4-2, though they have also used 4-2-3-1 and 4-3-3. They sit deeper and pick their moments to press (PPDA 37.0). They are selective in their shooting (8.0 per 90).
Path to success
In Group D alongside United States, Paraguay, Turkey, Australia are projected at 61.5% to advance from the group stage. Qualification to the knockout rounds is the primary target. The round of 32 probability sits at 27.7%. The expanded 48-team format gives smaller federations more runway, and upsets in the group stage are a fixture of every World Cup.
What they must execute
Australia rely on defensive discipline and quick transitions — absorbing pressure and converting turnovers into attacking chances. Concentration and defensive organisation for full 90-minute stretches will determine whether the approach holds against top opposition.
Controversial take
One factor to watch: XI averaged only 249 club minutes in 2024-25 — #43 of 43 in the field. Light pre-tournament prep on the starting eleven.
Key numbers
How they play
Style vs the 48-team field
Transition-heavy · style profile from 7 recent matches
What to watch: a more passive press, sitting off the ball.
Percentiles position Australia against the 48-team field. Higher means more of that trait, not better or worse. Press is inverted (lower PPDA = higher press); width uses crossing rate as a proxy; tempo is open-play passes per minute of possession. Descriptive style analytics; does not feed the published probabilities.
Group D finish · Australia
Monte Carlo, 100,000 simsTop two advance to the round of 32; best 8 of 12 third-placed teams also qualify.
- 21.8%1st (group winner)Advances to R32
- 24.8%2nd (runner-up)Advances to R32
- 26.2%3rdAdvances only if among the best 8 of 12 third-placed teams
- 27.2%4thEliminated
Stage progression · Australia
, 100,000 sims- 66.5%AdvAdvance from group
- 32.1%R16Round of 16
- 12.2%QFQuarter-final
- 4.2%SFSemi-final
- 1.5%FFinal
- 0.5%WinWin the tournament
Likely knockout path · Australia
Monte Carlo, 10,000 simsThe squad
Confirmed squad
Wikipedia call-up pool · snapshot 2026-05-28Roster confirmed by the federation's official squad announcement. The XI/bench split below is the model's composite-rating ordering, not the head coach's lineup.
★ likely first sub badge on the top-3 by first-sub score within each position group, plus a late-game impact rating where club per-90 stats are available.
▸How to read this squad— 4 columns explained
- Pos
- Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
- Caps
- Senior international appearances. Used by the model as a recency-weighted signal of how often the manager calls the player up.
- Stat
- Position-aware stat: career international goals for forwards; career international assists for midfielders (Transfermarkt); latest available Big-5 club season's total tackles for defenders (FBref); latest available Big-5 club season's save percentage for goalkeepers (FBref). Em-dash when no data is joined — most often for defenders and keepers at non-Big-5 clubs.
- Rating
- Composite rating (Model #4) — combines recent caps + goals, recent club xG and xAG per 90, position-relative quality, and call-up priors. Higher = the model thinks the player is more likely to start. Typically 0.9 (depth) to 2.5 (elite).
Selection driver — coloured chips show which input dominates a player's selection score. Caps-driven = selected mainly on international experience. Rating-driven = selected mainly on club performance quality. Jersey-boosted = jersey number from a recent squad snapshot lifted their score. Goals-driven = international goal record was the decisive factor. No chip when the score is a balanced blend.
Squad cohesion
Projected XI · club overlap
Low coverage: 2/11 of the projected XI have club-minutes rows in our ratings table. Numbers below are structurally suppressed and should be read alongside the resolved count, not in isolation.
- Pairwise club minutes
- 0.21%
- Share of the 55-pair × 3000-minute ceiling. Higher = more of the XI plays together at club level.
- Club concentration
- 1.000
- How concentrated the XI is across clubs. 0.091 = 11 different clubs · 1.000 = all the same club.
- Top-3 clubs share
- 100%
- 2 of 2 play for the three most common clubs in the XI.
Top clubs in projected XI
- St. Pauli2
Most-connected club pair
Jackson Irvine + Connor Metcalfe — St. Pauli, 2024-25 · 340 shared minutes
Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Squad depth
Projected XI · replaceability
Most irreplaceable starters
- Mathew RyanGoalkeeperLikely cover: Paul Izzo · 0.33Randers0.56gap to repl.
- Nestory IrankundaWingerLikely cover: Nishan Velupillay · 0.09Melbourne Victory0.36gap to repl.
- Connor MetcalfeCentral midfieldLikely cover: Patrick Yazbek · 0.42Nashville SC0.33gap to repl.
Gap to repl. = how far this nation's rating at the position falls from the starter to his likely in-squad replacement (named above). Larger = harder to replace.
Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Group schedule
Group-stage schedule
| MD | Date | Opponent | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jun 13, 2026 | Turkey | Vancouver, Canada |
| 2 | Jun 19, 2026 | United States | Seattle, United States |
| 3 | Jun 25, 2026 | Paraguay | Santa Clara, United States |
Head-to-head matchups
Storylines
Storylines
Updated 28 days ago20 at kickoff — 13 caps.
Gained 58 international Elo points over the last 12 months — current rating 1905.
XI averaged only 249 club minutes in 2024-25 — #43 of 43 in the field. Light pre-tournament prep on the starting eleven.
Travels 38,983 km across 3 venues in the group stage — one of the longest itineraries in the field.
Form & track record
Video analysis: Australia
Performance data from official highlights analysis across 2 matches. 16 players observed, 14 events tracked.
Delivered an outstanding performance in goal, making several crucial saves to maintain a clean sheet.
Match by match
Player ratings (16)
9Patrick Beach1 app · 1 events1 save9▼
Delivered an outstanding performance in goal, making several crucial saves to maintain a clean sheet.
8Nestory Irankunda1 app · 2 events1 goal8▼
Scored the opening goal for Australia, demonstrating pace and determination.
8Connor Metcalfe1 app · 1 events1 goal8▼
Secured Australia's second goal with a composed finish.
7Leckie1 app · 1 events7▼
Provided a quality cross that contributed to Australia's attacking build-up from a wide position.
6Nishan Velupillay1 app · 1 events6▼
Entered as a substitute but had no specific notable actions.
6Jason Geria1 app · 1 events6▼
Entered as a substitute but had no specific notable actions.
6Jacob Italiano1 app · 1 events6▼
Played for 73 minutes without any specific notable actions.
6Paul Okon-Engstler1 app · 1 events6▼
Played for 83 minutes without any specific notable actions.
6Aziz Behich1 app · 1 events6▼
Entered as a substitute but had no specific notable actions.
6Jordan Bos1 app · 1 events6▼
Played for 83 minutes without any specific notable actions.
6Luque1 app · 1 events1 shot6▼
Showed offensive ambition by attempting a shot, but it was blocked and didn't lead to a significant chance.
6Metcalfe1 app · 1 events6▼
Contributed to Australia's attacking build-up by delivering a cross into the box.
6Tete Vengi1 app6▼
Entered as a substitute but had no specific notable actions.
6Mohamed Touré1 app6▼
Played for 73 minutes without any specific notable actions.
6Jackson Irvine1 app6▼
Entered as a substitute but had no specific notable actions.
3Cameron Burgess1 app · 1 events1 goal3▼
His own goal directly put his team at a disadvantage early in the match.
Match observations
- gs-008Australia secured a 2-0 victory over Türkiye in a match marked by contrasting approaches.
- gs-008Australia's goals resulted from swift transitions and clinical finishing, while Türkiye generated numerous scoring opportunities but struggled to convert.
- gs-008The match featured a vibrant atmosphere, with supporters from both nations contributing to an intense environment.
- gs-031The match saw the United States secure a 2-0 victory over Australia in a competitive encounter.
- gs-031The USA took an early lead through an unfortunate own goal, which was then extended by a second goal confirmed after a VAR review.
- gs-031Australia created numerous attacking opportunities, particularly in the second half, but were unable to convert them into goals.
Statistical profile
Transition HeavyAttack
Defence
GK: Mathew Ryan
Set pieces
Style
Squad
Workload class: low
Attack and defence ratings from the model; style metrics from recent international matches; penalty rates via Bayesian estimation; goalkeeper rating from shot-prevention data. Rank is out of 48 tournament teams.
Where goals come from
Phase of play · scored & conceded
- Open play
- Set piece
- Counter
- Penalty
Share of goals by how the chance began, across 7 matches (WC2018,WC2022). Shoot-out kicks are excluded. Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Group-stage matchups
Probabilities from the calibrated ensemble model. xG from the Dixon–Coles fit. See each fixture page for full analysis.
Rating & probability history
12 snapshots · 2026-05-22 → 2026-06-24Australia trajectory: 12 snapshots between 2026-05-22 and 2026-06-24 (33 days). Elo moved from 1783.0 to 1783.0 (0). Tournament-winner probability moved from 0.2% to 0.5% (+0.3pp).
Each point is one model build. The shaded band is the bootstrap 90% credible interval around the tournament-winner probability.
Recent form (10 matches)
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | HCuraçao | 5–1 | W | FIFA Series |
| 2026-03-27 | HCameroon | 1–0 | W | FIFA Series |
| 2025-11-18 | NColombia | 0–3 | L | Friendly |
| 2025-11-14 | NVenezuela | 0–1 | L | Friendly |
| 2025-10-14 | AUnited States | 1–2 | L | Friendly |
| 2025-10-10 | ACanada | 1–0 | W | Friendly |
| 2025-09-09 | ANew Zealand | 3–1 | W | Soccer Ashes |
| 2025-09-05 | HNew Zealand | 1–0 | W | Soccer Ashes |
| 2025-06-10 | ASaudi Arabia | 2–1 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-06-05 | HJapan | 1–0 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
martj42 international results (CC0) · last 10 matches · ~2 years.
Head-to-head vs group opponents
| Opponent | Meetings | W-D-L | Last meeting |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paraguay | 5 | 2-3-0 | 2010 — Win (1–0) · Friendly |
| United States | 5 | 1-1-3 | 2026 — Loss (0–2) · FIFA World Cup |
| Turkey | 3 | 1-0-2 | 2026 — Win (2–0) · FIFA World Cup |
All meetings via the martj42 international results dataset.
Major tournaments — most recent appearance
| Tournament | Year | Finish | W-D-L | Since then |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Asian Cup | 2024 | Quarter-finals | 3-1-1 |
|
| FIFA World Cup | 2022 | Round of 16 | 2-0-2 |
|
| Oceania Nations Cup | 2004 | Champion | 6-1-0 |
|
Source: FIFA archives. Penalty outcomes resolved to W/L.
Most similar past team-tournaments
Closest comparable teams from past major tournaments (1990-2024), by squad strength, group draw, and recent form. Shown for context, not a prediction.
South Korea · World Cup 2010
Exited at the round of 16
Comparable pre-tournament strength (Elo 1839) and group draw.
South Korea · World Cup 2006
Exited at the group stage
Japan · World Cup 2014
Exited at the group stage
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