Switzerland
Snapshot · 2026-06-24Model 1.0.0UEFA·Group B·FIFA #17
Pragmatic side led by Breel Embolo.
Recent formation: 4-2-3-1 (3 of 4)
- Rival
- Canada (#27)
- Key
- Ricardo Rodriguez (DF)
WC2026 results
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 13 | Qatar | 1–1 | D | Santa Clara |
| Jun 18 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | 4–1 | W | Inglewood |
Tournament outlook
Analysis
Switzerland sit in the second tier of contenders with a 1.4% tournament probability (15th in the field). The squad bridges generations: Remo Freuler (34 at kickoff with 86 caps — probably his final world cup) alongside Johan Manzambi, the squad's youngest prospect. Drawn in Group B alongside Canada, Qatar, Bosnia and Herzegovina, they are projected at 97.3% to advance to the knockout stage.
How they play
Switzerland under Murat Yakin play a pragmatic game with 50% possession. Their likely shape is a 4-2-3-1, though they have also used 4-3-3. They apply moderate pressing intensity (PPDA 22.8).
Path to success
Switzerland face Canada, Qatar, Bosnia and Herzegovina in Group B, with a 97.3% probability of advancing to the knockout rounds. A quarter-final run is realistic at 26.6%, though reaching the semi-finals (10.1%) would represent an exceptional campaign. Navigating the expanded 48-team format, which adds a round of 32, means an extra knockout fixture for any team with title ambitions.
What they must execute
Switzerland play a pragmatic, results-oriented game that adapts shape to the opposition. Tactical flexibility is their strength. The risk is inconsistency — without a default identity, a poor result can cascade if the team struggles to find a Plan B. Managing minutes for Remo Freuler across what could be seven matches will test the coaching staff's rotation planning.
Controversial take
The model's assessment of Switzerland broadly aligns with their FIFA ranking — no major disagreement between the two systems for this squad.
Key numbers
How they play
Style vs the 48-team field
Pragmatic · style profile from 18 recent matches
What to watch: a slower, more circuitous attack.
Percentiles position Switzerland against the 48-team field. Higher means more of that trait, not better or worse. Press is inverted (lower PPDA = higher press); width uses crossing rate as a proxy; tempo is open-play passes per minute of possession. Descriptive style analytics; does not feed the published probabilities.
Group B finish · Switzerland
Monte Carlo, 100,000 simsTop two advance to the round of 32; best 8 of 12 third-placed teams also qualify.
- 48.0%1st (group winner)Advances to R32
- 38.6%2nd (runner-up)Advances to R32
- 10.8%3rdAdvances only if among the best 8 of 12 third-placed teams
- 2.5%4thEliminated
Stage progression · Switzerland
, 100,000 sims- 95.4%AdvAdvance from group
- 57.3%R16Round of 16
- 25.4%QFQuarter-final
- 10.1%SFSemi-final
- 4.2%FFinal
- 1.6%WinWin the tournament
Likely knockout path · Switzerland
Monte Carlo, 10,000 simsMost frequent opponents per round, conditional on reaching it.
R32
Round of 32
R16
Round of 16
The squad
Predicted squad
Wikipedia call-up pool · snapshot 2026-05-28The source has jersey numbers assigned, but they may reflect a recent friendly window rather than the final FIFA squad. The model still ranks all pool players and may surface a non-jerseyed regular over a numbered backup.
★ likely first sub badge on the top-3 by first-sub score within each position group, plus a late-game impact rating where club per-90 stats are available.
▸How to read this squad— 4 columns explained
- Pos
- Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
- Caps
- Senior international appearances. Used by the model as a recency-weighted signal of how often the manager calls the player up.
- Stat
- Position-aware stat: career international goals for forwards; career international assists for midfielders (Transfermarkt); latest available Big-5 club season's total tackles for defenders (FBref); latest available Big-5 club season's save percentage for goalkeepers (FBref). Em-dash when no data is joined — most often for defenders and keepers at non-Big-5 clubs.
- Rating
- Composite rating (Model #4) — combines recent caps + goals, recent club xG and xAG per 90, position-relative quality, and call-up priors. Higher = the model thinks the player is more likely to start. Typically 0.9 (depth) to 2.5 (elite).
Selection driver — coloured chips show which input dominates a player's selection score. Caps-driven = selected mainly on international experience. Rating-driven = selected mainly on club performance quality. Jersey-boosted = jersey number from a recent squad snapshot lifted their score. Goals-driven = international goal record was the decisive factor. No chip when the score is a balanced blend.
Squad cohesion
Projected XI · club overlap
- Pairwise club minutes
- 1.23%
- Share of the 55-pair × 3000-minute ceiling. Higher = more of the XI plays together at club level.
- Club concentration
- 0.107
- How concentrated the XI is across clubs. 0.091 = 11 different clubs · 1.000 = all the same club.
- Top-3 clubs share
- 36%
- 4 of 11 play for the three most common clubs in the XI.
Top clubs in projected XI
- Monaco2
- Borussia Dortmund1
- Mainz 051
Most-connected club pair
Denis Zakaria + Breel Embolo — Monaco, 2024-25 · 2,028 shared minutes
Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Squad depth
Projected XI · replaceability
Most irreplaceable starters
- Dan NdoyeWingerLikely cover: Noah Okafor · 0.00Leeds United0.53gap to repl.
- Manuel AkanjiCentre-backLikely cover: Aurèle Amenda · 0.36Eintracht Frankfurt0.53gap to repl.
- Nico ElvediCentre-backLikely cover: Aurèle Amenda · 0.36Eintracht Frankfurt0.51gap to repl.
Gap to repl. = how far this nation's rating at the position falls from the starter to his likely in-squad replacement (named above). Larger = harder to replace.
Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Group schedule
Group-stage schedule
| MD | Date | Opponent | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jun 13, 2026 | Qatar | Santa Clara, United States |
| 2 | Jun 18, 2026 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | Inglewood, United States |
| 3 | Jun 24, 2026 | Canada | Vancouver, Canada |
Head-to-head matchups
Storylines
Storylines
Updated 28 days agoGained 79 international Elo points over the last 12 months — current rating 1950.
Model's top anytime-scorer for the team — 27% probability of scoring at least once, rank #11 of all players.
18 of 25 predicted-squad players played in a top-5 European league last season — top-tier league pedigree across the squad.
20 at kickoff — 10 caps — projected on the bench, the squad's youngest pick.
Form & track record
Video analysis: Switzerland
Performance data from official highlights analysis across 2 matches. 14 players observed, 29 events tracked.
Scored the opening goal from the penalty spot with composure.
2 goalsMatch by match
Player ratings (14)
8Breel Embolo1 app · 4 events2 goals2 shots8▼
Scored the opening goal from the penalty spot with composure.
7Dan Ndoye1 app · 7 events6 shots (3 on target)1 fouls won7▼
Created numerous attacking opportunities, forced several saves, and was fouled.
7Gregor Kobel1 app · 2 events2 saves7▼
Made good saves to deny early Qatar attacks and maintain his team's lead for most of the game.
7Remo Freuler1 app · 1 events1 fouls won7▼
Won the penalty that led to his team's opening goal.
7Ruben Vargas1 app7▼
Was fouled twice, leading to two yellow cards for an opponent, and had several shots.
7Steven Zuber1 app7▼
Zuber was an energetic presence on the wing, actively involved in both attacking movements and defensive pressing for Switzerland.
6Johan Manzambi1 app · 4 events1 shot (1 on target)1 fouls won6▼
Came on as a substitute, was fouled, and had a shot saved.
6Michel Aebischer1 app · 3 events1 shot (1 on target)6▼
Had a shot on target before being substituted.
6Granit Xhaka1 app · 2 events2 shots (1 on target)6▼
Had a couple of shots but did not make a decisive impact.
6Denis Zakaria1 app · 2 events2 shots (1 on target)6▼
Had shots on goal but did not significantly influence the game.
6Silvan Widmer1 app · 1 events6▼
Came on as a late substitute without making a notable impact.
6Ricardo Rodriguez1 app · 1 events6▼
Played for most of the match without making a significant impact.
6Fabian Rieder1 app · 1 events1 shot (1 on target)6▼
Came on as a substitute and had a shot saved.
6Zeki Amdouni1 app · 1 events1 fouls won6▼
Was fouled during his time on the pitch.
Match observations
- gs-004The match was a closely contested affair, with both teams creating opportunities. Switzerland initially gained a lead from a penalty, but Qatar fought back to secure a late equaliser.
- gs-004Qatar's goalkeeper, Mahmoud Abunada, delivered a strong performance, making numerous saves to keep his team in contention throughout the game.
- gs-004The game saw a dramatic finish, with Qatar scoring in stoppage time to level the score, leading to jubilant celebrations from their players and fans.
- gs-028The match began with an electric atmosphere, with both sets of supporters creating a vibrant backdrop.
- gs-028Switzerland demonstrated composure in possession, building attacks from midfield.
- gs-028Bosnia and Herzegovina adopted a compact defensive approach, showing discipline to limit clear opportunities for Switzerland.
Statistical profile
PragmaticAttack
Defence
GK: Gregor Kobel
Set pieces
Style
Squad
Workload class: light
Attack and defence ratings from the model; style metrics from recent international matches; penalty rates via Bayesian estimation; goalkeeper rating from shot-prevention data. Rank is out of 48 tournament teams.
Where goals come from
Phase of play · scored & conceded
- Open play
- Set piece
- Counter
- Penalty
Share of goals by how the chance began, across 18 matches (Euro2020,Euro2024,WC2018,WC2022). Shoot-out kicks are excluded. Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Group-stage matchups
Probabilities from the calibrated ensemble model. xG from the Dixon–Coles fit. See each fixture page for full analysis.
Rating & probability history
12 snapshots · 2026-05-22 → 2026-06-24Switzerland trajectory: 12 snapshots between 2026-05-22 and 2026-06-24 (33 days). Elo moved from 1889.0 to 1889.0 (0). Tournament-winner probability moved from 0.8% to 1.6% (+0.8pp).
Each point is one model build. The shaded band is the bootstrap 90% credible interval around the tournament-winner probability.
Recent form (10 matches)
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | ANorway | 0–0 | D | Friendly |
| 2026-03-27 | HGermany | 3–4 | L | Friendly |
| 2025-11-18 | AKosovo | 1–1 | D | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-11-15 | HSweden | 4–1 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-10-13 | ASlovenia | 0–0 | D | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-10-10 | ASweden | 2–0 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-09-08 | HSlovenia | 3–0 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-09-05 | HKosovo | 4–0 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-06-10 | AUnited States | 4–0 | W | Friendly |
| 2025-06-07 | NMexico | 4–2 | W | Friendly |
martj42 international results (CC0) · last 10 matches · ~2 years.
Head-to-head vs group opponents
| Opponent | Meetings | W-D-L | Last meeting |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | 2 | 1-0-1 | 2026 — Win (4–1) · FIFA World Cup |
| Qatar | 2 | 0-1-1 | 2026 — Draw (1–1) · FIFA World Cup |
| Canada | 1 | 0-0-1 | 2002 — Loss (1–3) · Friendly |
All meetings via the martj42 international results dataset.
Major tournaments — most recent appearance
| Tournament | Year | Finish | W-D-L | Since then |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UEFA Euro | 2024 | Quarter-finals | 2-3-0 |
|
| FIFA World Cup | 2022 | Round of 16 | 2-0-2 |
|
Source: FIFA archives. Penalty outcomes resolved to W/L.
Most similar past team-tournaments
Closest comparable teams from past major tournaments (1990-2024), by squad strength, group draw, and recent form. Shown for context, not a prediction.
England · Euro 2016
Exited at the round of 16
Comparable pre-tournament strength (Elo 2006) and group draw.
Italy · World Cup 2010
Exited at the group stage
Germany · Euro 2008
Finished runner-up
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