Scotland

Snapshot · 2026-06-24Model 1.0.0

UEFA·Group C·FIFA #36

Knockout contender

Compact low-block side with a Rangers-heavy spine.

Rival: Brazil (#5)
Key: Ché Adams (FW)

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WC2026 results

Record1W · 0D · 1L

Goals1:1 (0)

Form

Date	Opponent	Score	Result	Venue
Jun 13	Haiti	1–0	W	Foxborough
Jun 19	Morocco	0–1	L	Foxborough

Tournament outlook

Analysis

Scotland carry a 0.1% probability of winning the tournament (32nd of 48). Watch for Ben Gannon-Doak — 20 at kickoff — 12 caps — projected on the bench, the squad's youngest pick. Drawn in Group C alongside Brazil, Morocco, Haiti, they are projected at 73.6% to advance to the knockout stage.

How they play

Scotland under Steve Clarke play a low block game, with just 44% possession — among the lowest in the field. They apply moderate pressing intensity (PPDA 26.0) and move the ball forward quickly at 5.7 passes per attack. They are selective in their shooting (9.2 per 90).

Path to success

In Group C alongside Brazil, Morocco, Haiti, Scotland are projected at 73.6% to advance from the group stage. Qualification to the knockout rounds is the primary target. The round of 32 probability sits at 24.9%. The expanded 48-team format gives smaller federations more runway, and upsets in the group stage are a fixture of every World Cup.

What they must execute

Scotland will look to stay compact and frustrate opponents, limiting space and hitting on the break. Set-piece proficiency — both attacking and defending — becomes critical when open-play chances are limited by design.

Controversial take

The model's assessment of Scotland broadly aligns with their FIFA ranking — no major disagreement between the two systems for this squad.

Key numbers

0.1%Win probability32nd in field

1767Elo ratingRanked 29th globally

0.072xG per shotbottom quartile (42nd of 48)

10.8%Tournament goal probability — Ché AdamsTop projected scorer in the squad (FW)

7.4 yearsManager tenureSteve Clarke

73.6%Group stage advance probabilityGroup C

How they play

Style vs the 48-team field

Low block · style profile from 6 recent matches

Press

Build-up

5.7

Directness

5.8

Width (proxy)

386.1

Tempo

8.7

Set-piece reliance

13.8

What to watch: a quick, few-touch route to attack.

Percentiles position Scotland against the 48-team field. Higher means more of that trait, not better or worse. Press is inverted (lower PPDA = higher press); width uses crossing rate as a proxy; tempo is open-play passes per minute of possession. Descriptive style analytics; does not feed the published probabilities.

Group C finish · Scotland

Monte Carlo, 100,000 sims

Top two advance to the round of 32; best 8 of 12 third-placed teams also qualify.

1st (group winner)
Advances to R32
7.8%
2nd (runner-up)
Advances to R32
24.6%
3rd
Advances only if among the best 8 of 12 third-placed teams
48.1%
4th
Eliminated
19.5%

Stage progression · Scotland

, 100,000 sims

65.7%AdvAdvance from group
22.9%R16Round of 16
8.5%QFQuarter-final
2.7%SFSemi-final
0.7%FFinal
0.2%WinWin the tournament

Likely knockout path · Scotland

Monte Carlo, 10,000 sims

Most frequent opponents per round, conditional on reaching it.

R32

Round of 32

Netherlands22%

Germany16%

Japan15%

R16

Round of 16

France17%

England12%

Switzerland8%

Quarter-final

France16%

Brazil13%

Morocco12%

Semi-final

Spain27%

Argentina11%

Belgium9%

Final

Argentina15%

Portugal10%

Spain10%

The squad

Predicted squad

Model-predicted · snapshot 2026-05-28

No jersey numbers assigned in the underlying source. The 26 below are picked by the model from the team's recent call-up pool.

Goalkeepers (1)

PlayerStat

Craig GordonCaps-driven→Heart of Midlothian

83c74save%0.22

Defenders (4)

PlayerStat

Andy RobertsonCaps-driven→Liverpool

92c33tackles0.87

Grant HanleyCaps-drivenHibernian

66c55tackles0.72

Kieran TierneyCaps-driven→Celtic

55c21tackles0.50

Scott McKennaCaps-drivenDinamo Zagreb

49c8tackles0.63

Midfielders (3)

PlayerStat

Ryan ChristieCaps-driven→Bournemouth

66c7assists0.80

Scott McTominayCaps-driven↗Napoli

69c4assists0.75

John McGinnCaps-driven↗Aston Villa

85c11assists0.64

Forwards (3)

PlayerStat

Ché AdamsCaps-driven→Torino

46c11goals0.47

Lyndon DykesCaps-drivenCharlton Athletic

50c10goals0.35

Lawrence ShanklandRangers

18c4goals0.45

Bench

★ likely first sub badge on the top-3 by first-sub score within each position group, plus a late-game impact rating where club per-90 stats are available.

Goalkeepers (2)

PlayerStat

Angus GunnNottingham Forest★ Likely first sub

21c57save%0.55

Liam KellyRating-drivenRangers★ Likely first sub

2c—0.44

Defenders (6)

PlayerStat

Jack HendryCaps-drivenAl-Ettifaq

37c—0.43

Aaron HickeyRating-drivenBrentford★ Likely first subimpact 15/100

19c45tackles0.89

Nathan PattersonRating-drivenEverton★ Likely first subimpact 6/100

25c—0.67

John SouttarRating-drivenRangers★ Likely first sub

22c—0.64

Anthony RalstonCeltic

25c—0.49

Dominic HyamCaps-drivenWrexham

2c—0.00

Midfielders (5)

PlayerStat

Kenny McLeanCaps-drivenNorwich Cityimpact 10/100

56c3assists0.11

Billy GilmourCaps-drivenNapoli★ Likely first subimpact 11/100

45c1assists0.32

Ben Gannon-DoakRating-drivenBournemouth★ Likely first sub

12c2assists0.71

Lewis FergusonCaps-driven↘Bologna★ Likely first subimpact 13/100

23c1assists0.30

Findlay CurtisCaps-drivenRangers

1c0assists0.00

Forwards (2)

PlayerStat

George HirstRating-drivenIpswich Town★ Likely first subimpact 47/100

8c1goals0.64

Ross StewartCaps-drivenSouthampton★ Likely first sub

2c0goals0.00

▸How to read this squad— 4 columns explained

Pos: Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
Caps: Senior international appearances. Used by the model as a recency-weighted signal of how often the manager calls the player up.
Stat: Position-aware stat: career international goals for forwards; career international assists for midfielders (Transfermarkt); latest available Big-5 club season's total tackles for defenders (FBref); latest available Big-5 club season's save percentage for goalkeepers (FBref). Em-dash when no data is joined — most often for defenders and keepers at non-Big-5 clubs.
Rating: Composite rating (Model #4) — combines recent caps + goals, recent club xG and xAG per 90, position-relative quality, and call-up priors. Higher = the model thinks the player is more likely to start. Typically 0.9 (depth) to 2.5 (elite).

★ Likely first sub — the bench player the model rates most likely to be the first substitute for their position. Computed from a first-sub score (cap-recency + impact rating); ties broken by Rating.

Selection driver — coloured chips show which input dominates a player's selection score. Caps-driven = selected mainly on international experience. Rating-driven = selected mainly on club performance quality. Jersey-boosted = jersey number from a recent squad snapshot lifted their score. Goals-driven = international goal record was the decisive factor. No chip when the score is a balanced blend.

Squad cohesion

Projected XI · club overlap

Low coverage: 6/11 of the projected XI have club-minutes rows in our ratings table. Numbers below are structurally suppressed and should be read alongside the resolved count, not in isolation.

Pairwise club minutes: 0.00%; Share of the 55-pair × 3000-minute ceiling. Higher = more of the XI plays together at club level.

Club concentration: 0.167; How concentrated the XI is across clubs. 0.091 = 11 different clubs · 1.000 = all the same club.

Top-3 clubs share: 50%; 3 of 6 play for the three most common clubs in the XI.

Top clubs in projected XI

Arsenal1
Everton1
Napoli1

Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →

Squad depth

Projected XI · replaceability

Most irreplaceable starters

Ryan ChristieCentral midfieldLikely cover: Lewis Ferguson · 0.30Bologna0.50gap to repl.
Scott McTominayCentral midfieldLikely cover: Lewis Ferguson · 0.30Bologna0.45gap to repl.
John McGinnCentral midfieldLikely cover: Lewis Ferguson · 0.30Bologna0.34gap to repl.

Gap to repl. = how far this nation's rating at the position falls from the starter to his likely in-squad replacement (named above). Larger = harder to replace.

Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →

Group schedule

Group-stage schedule

MD	Date	Opponent	Venue
1	Jun 13, 2026	Haiti	Foxborough, United States
2	Jun 19, 2026	Morocco	Foxborough, United States
3	Jun 24, 2026	Brazil	Miami Gardens, United States

Head-to-head matchups

Scotland projected scorers →

Storylines

Updated 28 days ago

Veteran #1Craig Gordon

43 at kickoff with 83 caps — last World Cup for the #1.

Club core

4 of 25 predicted-squad players play their club football for Rangers — a single-club spine on the international side.

From the spot

Converted only 3 of 5 career penalties (60%) — a wasteful record from the spot in knockouts.

TouchlineSteve Clarke

First World Cup as head coach, appointed 2019.

Form & track record

Video analysis: Scotland

Performance data from official highlights analysis across 2 matches. 10 players observed, 26 events tracked.

John McGinnStandout performer

Scored Scotland's opening and only goal, demonstrating good attacking presence and finishing.

1 goal

Goals

Shots

Saves

Blocks

Fouls won

Cards

Headers

Rating spread(13 ratings)

8+ (2)7 (3)6 (6)5- (2)

Match by match

Player ratings (10)

John McGinn2 apps · 4 events

1 goal2 shots1 fouls won

▼

Scored Scotland's opening and only goal, demonstrating good attacking presence and finishing.

gs-0068Scored Scotland's opening and only goal, demonstrating good attacking presence and finishing.

gs-0306Showed attacking intent by getting into good positions, though without a direct impact on the score.

Scott McTominay1 app · 5 events

1 shot2 fouls won1 header1 yellow

▼

Came very close to scoring with a shot that hit the post and showed attacking intent, despite receiving a yellow card.

gs-0067Came very close to scoring with a shot that hit the post and showed attacking intent, despite receiving a yellow card.

Angus Gunn2 apps · 5 events

5 saves

▼

Made two saves from crosses, performing his duties adequately.

gs-0066Made two saves from crosses, performing his duties adequately.

gs-0308Made several crucial saves throughout the match, preventing Morocco from extending their lead and keeping Scotland in contention.

Ammouni1 app · 2 events

2 shots (2 on target)

▼

Was a persistent threat in Morocco's attack, registering multiple shots on target that tested the opposition goalkeeper.

gs-0307Was a persistent threat in Morocco's attack, registering multiple shots on target that tested the opposition goalkeeper.

6.5

Ryan Christie2 apps · 2 events

1 shot (1 on target)

▼

Came on as a substitute but had no notable contributions in the limited time played.

gs-0066Came on as a substitute but had no notable contributions in the limited time played.

gs-0307Created one of Scotland's clearer scoring opportunities with a shot on target that was saved.

Ché Adams1 app · 2 events

2 fouls won

▼

Was fouled twice by opponents, drawing yellow cards, but had no other notable contributions.

gs-0066Was fouled twice by opponents, drawing yellow cards, but had no other notable contributions.

Jack Hendry1 app · 1 events

1 block

▼

Made a key block to deny an opponent's shot, contributing to the team's defense.

gs-0066Made a key block to deny an opponent's shot, contributing to the team's defense.

Lawrence Shankland1 app · 1 events

1 header

▼

Had a header attempt that went wide but otherwise had an average performance.

gs-0066Had a header attempt that went wide but otherwise had an average performance.

Aaron Hickey1 app · 3 events

1 block1 fouls won1 yellow

▼

Made a defensive clearance but received a yellow card for a foul.

gs-0065Made a defensive clearance but received a yellow card for a foul.

Grant Hanley1 app · 1 events

▼

Experienced a moment of miscommunication that nearly led to a costly own goal.

gs-0304Experienced a moment of miscommunication that nearly led to a costly own goal.

Match observations

gs-006The match began with both teams displaying cautious approaches, gradually building into more attacking passages.
gs-006Scotland found their rhythm first, creating several opportunities before John McGinn broke the deadlock.
gs-006Haiti responded with periods of sustained pressure, testing the Scottish defence and goalkeeper.
gs-030Morocco secured a 1-0 victory over Scotland in a match that saw both teams create opportunities.
gs-030Morocco's early goal set the tone, and they continued to threaten throughout the game, particularly with quick runs into the box.
gs-030Scotland showed resilience, especially in the second half, generating several chances but ultimately failing to find an equalizer.

Statistical profile

Low Block

Attack

Attack rating0.7328th/48

Shots per match9.243rd/48

Chance quality0.07242nd/48

Defence

Defence rating0.6620th/48

Goalkeeper rating0.5132nd/48

GK: Angus Gunn

Set pieces

Set-piece goal share13.8%19th/48

Penalty conversion72.0%36th/48

Penalty save rate20.0%44th/48

Style

Possession43.9%41st/48

Press intensity26.033rd/48

Directness5.827th/48

Crossing volume386.134th/48

Long ball volume43.34th/48

Build-up length5.734th/48

Squad

Avg. minutes per starter1,54526th/48

Club familiarity0.00043rd/48

Workload class: light

Attack and defence ratings from the model; style metrics from recent international matches; penalty rates via Bayesian estimation; goalkeeper rating from shot-prevention data. Rank is out of 48 tournament teams.

Where goals come from

Phase of play · scored & conceded

Scored2 goals · 58 shots

Conceded12 goals · 75 shots

Open play
Set piece
Counter
Penalty

Share of goals by how the chance began, across 6 matches (Euro2020,Euro2024). Shoot-out kicks are excluded. Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →

Group-stage matchups

vs Haiti2026-06-13

Win58.6%

Draw25.1%

Loss16.3%

Expected goals for1.96

Expected goals against0.76

Likeliest score0-2 (12.7%)

Both teams score46.3%

Clean sheet46.9%

Full fixture analysis →

vs Morocco2026-06-19

Win25.7%

Draw30.1%

Loss44.2%

Expected goals for0.62

Expected goals against1.15

Likeliest score1-0 (18.8%)

Both teams score32.4%

Clean sheet31.6%

Full fixture analysis →

vs Brazil2026-06-24

Win14.4%

Draw24.4%

Loss61.1%

Expected goals for0.64

Expected goals against2.11

Likeliest score2-0 (14.3%)

Both teams score42.0%

Clean sheet12.2%

Full fixture analysis →

Probabilities from the calibrated ensemble model. xG from the Dixon–Coles fit. See each fixture page for full analysis.

Rating & probability history

12 snapshots · 2026-05-22 → 2026-06-24

Each point is one model build. The shaded band is the bootstrap 90% credible interval around the tournament-winner probability.

Recent form (10 matches)

Record5W · 1D · 4L

Goals18–12

Form

Date	Opponent	Score	Result	Competition
2026-03-31	NIvory Coast	0–1	L	Friendly
2026-03-28	HJapan	0–1	L	Friendly
2025-11-18	HDenmark	4–2	W	FIFA World Cup qualification
2025-11-15	AGreece	2–3	L	FIFA World Cup qualification
2025-10-12	HBelarus	2–1	W	FIFA World Cup qualification
2025-10-09	HGreece	3–1	W	FIFA World Cup qualification
2025-09-08	NBelarus	2–0	W	FIFA World Cup qualification
2025-09-05	ADenmark	0–0	D	FIFA World Cup qualification
2025-06-09	ALiechtenstein	4–0	W	Friendly
2025-06-06	HIceland	1–3	L	Friendly

martj42 international results (CC0) · last 10 matches · ~2 years.

Head-to-head vs group opponents

Opponent	Meetings	W-D-L	Last meeting
Brazil	10	0-2-8	2011 — Loss (0–2) · Friendly
Morocco	2	0-0-2	2026 — Loss (0–1) · FIFA World Cup
Haiti	1	1-0-0	2026 — Win (1–0) · FIFA World Cup

All meetings via the martj42 international results dataset.

Major tournaments — most recent appearance

Tournament	Year	Finish	W-D-L	Since then
UEFA Euro	2024	Group stage	0-1-2	Same head coach (Steve Clarke) since 2019 19/23 of current pool (83%) were active that year
FIFA World Cup	1998	Group stage	0-1-2	New head coach since then — now Steve Clarke (appointed 2019) 0/23 of current pool (0%) were active that year

Source: FIFA archives. Penalty outcomes resolved to W/L.

Most similar past team-tournaments

Closest comparable teams from past major tournaments (1990-2024), by squad strength, group draw, and recent form. Shown for context, not a prediction.

Russia · World Cup 2002
Exited at the group stage
Comparable pre-tournament strength (Elo 1787) and group draw.
Poland · Euro 2008
Exited at the group stage
Austria · Euro 2021
Exited at the round of 16

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WC2026 results

Tournament outlook

Analysis

How they play

Path to success

What they must execute

Controversial take

Key numbers

How they play

Group C finish · Scotland?

Stage progression · Scotland?

Likely knockout path · Scotland

The squad

Predicted squad?

Squad cohesion

Top clubs in projected XI

Squad depth

Most irreplaceable starters

Group schedule

Group-stage schedule

Head-to-head matchups

Storylines

Form & track record

Video analysis: Scotland

Match by match

Player ratings (10)

Match observations

Statistical profile

Attack

Defence

Set pieces

Style

Squad

Where goals come from

Group-stage matchups

Rating & probability history

Recent form (10 matches)

Head-to-head vs group opponents

Major tournaments — most recent appearance

Most similar past team-tournaments

See all 104 match forecasts

Group C finish · Scotland

Stage progression · Scotland

Predicted squad