Forecast vs result · Group C · Matchday 1

Haiti vs Scotland

2026-06-13

Post-match calibration

0 – 1
Scotland win

Pre-match probability vs realised outcome

  • Haiti win
    16.4%
  • Draw
    22.4%
  • Scotland win· realised
    61.1%
Brier score
0.229
Log loss
0.492
xG (final / predicted)
1.21 / 0.75 · Haiti
1.07 / 2.19 · Scotland
P(realised outcome)
61.1%

Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.

Key moments

28'⚽
Goal

J. McGinn (Scotland)

Match statistics

HaitiScotland
54%
Possession
46%
15
Shots
9
2
On target
2
1.21
xG
1.07
4
Corners
3
23
Fouls
21
1
Yellows
3

Scoreline prediction

The actual scoreline (0–1) was the model's #2 most likely outcome at 11.1%.

#10–212.7%
#20–111.1%
#31–29.5%
#40–39.2%
#51–19.1%

Team performance

HaitiC
Passing
In line5/10
Pressing / defence
Below profile4/10
Set pieces
In line5/10
Chance creation
Above profile7/10
Shot quality
Below profile3/10
Cohesion
In line5/10
Individual quality
Above profile7/10

Haiti showed attacking intent and created opportunities but lacked clinical finishing, suggesting a need for improvement in the final third.

ScotlandB+
Passing
In line6/10
Pressing / defence
Above profile7/10
Set pieces
In line5/10
Chance creation
Above profile8/10
Shot quality
In line6/10
Cohesion
In line7/10
Individual quality
In line8/10

The team secured a hard-fought away win, demonstrating resilience and clinical moments when it mattered.

Video analysis: player performance

Per-player ratings and event breakdowns from official highlights analysis. Tap a player to see their full match timeline.

Haiti
8
Johny Placide1'–28'

Made several crucial saves throughout the match, keeping Haiti in contention.

3saves
▼

Match timeline

1'Scotland's Gannon-Doak shot saved by Placide.
2'Scotland attack, Ben Gannon-Doak shot, saved by Johny Placide.
28'Scotland attack, Ben Gannon-Doak cross, saved by Johny Placide.
6
Louicius Deedson16'–22'

Was involved in several attacking moves for Haiti but also received a yellow card for a foul.

1fouls1 yellow
▼

Match timeline

16'Haiti attack, Louicius Deedson cross, Wilson Isidor header, wide.
18'Haiti's Louicius Deedson receives a yellow card for a foul on Robertson.
18'Haiti's Louicius Deedson receives a yellow card for a foul on Robertson.
21'Haiti attack, Louicius Deedson cross, saved by Angus Gunn.
22'Haiti attack, Louicius Deedson cross, saved by Angus Gunn.
6
Wilson Isidor5'–16'

Had a shot blocked and a header wide but did not make a significant impact before being substituted.

3shots1headers
▼

Match timeline

5'Haiti attack, Wilson Isidor shot, blocked.
14'Haiti's Isidor shot blocked by Hendry, penalty appeals waved away.
16'Haiti attack, Louicius Deedson cross, Wilson Isidor header, wide.
16'Haiti attack, Louicius Deedson cross, Wilson Isidor header, wide.
6
Jean-Ricner Bellegarde

Had a shot wide and another blocked, and committed a foul, but otherwise had an average performance.

6
Josué Casimir

Came on as a substitute and had a shot wide, but did not have enough time to make a significant impact.

6
Lenny Joseph

Came on as a substitute but had no notable contributions in the limited time played.

6
Frantzdy Pierrot

Had a significant header attempt that went wide, showing an aerial threat.

5
Ruben Providence

Committed a foul and provided a cross that went wide, but had limited overall impact.

5
Martin Expérience

Received a yellow card for a foul and had no other notable contributions.

4
Danley Jean Jacques12'–12'

Received an early yellow card and committed multiple fouls, negatively impacting his team's discipline.

1fouls1 yellow
▼

Match timeline

12'Yellow card for Danley Jean Jacques (Haiti) for a foul on Ché Adams.
12'Yellow card for Danley Jean Jacques (Haiti) for a foul on Ché Adams.
Scotland
8
John McGinn4'–27'

Scored Scotland's opening and only goal, demonstrating good attacking presence and finishing.

1goals1shots
▼

Match timeline

4'Scotland possession, John McGinn shot, wide.
27'Goal for Scotland! John McGinn scores. (Scotland 1-0 Haiti)
7
Scott McTominay6'–17'

Came very close to scoring with a shot that hit the post and showed attacking intent, despite receiving a yellow card.

2shots1headers
▼

Match timeline

6'Scotland's McTominay header wide after Robertson's cross.
6'Scotland's McTominay header wide after Robertson's cross.
17'Scotland attack, Scott McTominay shot, hits post.
6
Ché Adams12'–12'

Was fouled twice by opponents, drawing yellow cards, but had no other notable contributions.

1fouls won
▼

Match timeline

12'Yellow card for Danley Jean Jacques (Haiti) for a foul on Ché Adams.
6
Jack Hendry14'–14'

Made a key block to deny an opponent's shot, contributing to the team's defense.

1blocks
▼

Match timeline

14'Haiti's Isidor shot blocked by Hendry, penalty appeals waved away.
6
Angus Gunn21'–22'

Made two saves from crosses, performing his duties adequately.

2saves
▼

Match timeline

21'Haiti attack, Louicius Deedson cross, saved by Angus Gunn.
22'Haiti attack, Louicius Deedson cross, saved by Angus Gunn.
6
Lawrence Shankland

Had a header attempt that went wide but otherwise had an average performance.

6
Ryan Christie

Came on as a substitute but had no notable contributions in the limited time played.

5
Aaron Hickey

Made a defensive clearance but received a yellow card for a foul.

Match observations

  • The match began with both teams displaying cautious approaches, gradually building into more attacking passages.
  • Scotland found their rhythm first, creating several opportunities before John McGinn broke the deadlock.
  • Haiti responded with periods of sustained pressure, testing the Scottish defence and goalkeeper.
← Pre-match forecastLive tracker →

How to read this. A single match's Brier and log-loss are noisy. What matters is how the forecast calibrates across many matches. This per-fixture recap is one row of the aggregate calibration scoreboard at /docs/calibration/. The pre-match probability shown here is the one frozen before kickoff; it was never re-priced during play.