Group C · Matchday 2
MoroccovsScotland
2026-06-19·18:00 localPredictions finalised
The forecast
Match-outcome probability
- Morocco win51.3%
- Draw27.5%
- Scotland win21.2%
A clash of identities: Morocco's counter-attacker approach meets Scotland's low-block style in a fixture the model gives to Morocco at 55%.
Why the model says this
Favoring Morocco
- ·Morocco holds a significantly higher FIFA ranking at 11th globally, compared to Scotland's 36th.
- ·Morocco's expected goals (xG) of 1.16 is considerably higher than Scotland's 0.62, indicating a greater offensive threat.
- ·Morocco won the only previous head-to-head encounter against Scotland with a 3-0 scoreline in the 1998 FIFA World Cup.
- ·Morocco is undefeated in their last six matches (4 wins, 2 draws), while Scotland has recorded four losses in their last six fixtures.
Favoring Scotland
- ·Scotland exhibits a slightly higher reliance on set pieces for expected goals creation, with 13.8% of their xG coming from such situations (51.3 percentile) compared to Morocco's 11.8% (38.2 percentile).
- ·The Elo model assigns Scotland a 31.1% probability of winning, which is higher than the ensemble's 26.0%, suggesting some underlying strength perceived by this specific model.
What the model can't fully price
- ·Four projected starters across both teams are currently carrying fitness doubts. The model's lineup channel does not currently adjust for these potential absences.
Form check
Morocco
SteadyMorocco enters this fixture in strong form, remaining undefeated in their last six matches with four wins and two draws. Their recent performances include three clean sheets, highlighting defensive solidity.
Undefeated in last 6 matches (4W, 2D)
Scotland
DecliningScotland's recent form has been challenging, with four losses in their last six fixtures. This includes two consecutive defeats in their most recent outings, where they failed to score.
Four losses in last 6 matches
Analysis
How it plays out
Neither side wants sustained possession. Scotland's low block and Morocco's transition approach could produce a cagey contest decided by set pieces and moments. Morocco's aggressive press (PPDA 22.2) against Scotland's deeper build-up (PPDA 26.0) creates a clear territory question: can Morocco force errors high up, or will Scotland play through the press and find space behind it?
What decides it
Morocco will concede possession willingly and attack in transition. Their defensive block needs to hold without fouling in dangerous areas. Scotland defend deep and limit space. Set pieces and individual errors become the most likely routes to goal. Sofyan Amrabat's 6.3% scoring probability is the highest in this fixture. Containing that output is Scotland's primary defensive task.
Off the pitch
Steve Clarke (7 years in charge of Scotland) vs Mohamed Ouahbi (0 years). That tenure gap shows up in squad familiarity and set-piece coordination.
The angle
A Group C fixture where the result matters more for the standings than the headlines.
▸Goals & scorelines
Likeliest score 1–0 (19.1%) · xG 1.2 - 0.6
Expected goals
Mean of the Dixon-Coles joint goal distribution. Same fit that produces the most-likely-scoreline list below.
Most likely scorelines
- 1–019.1%
- 0–016.7%
- 1–112.4%
- 2–012.3%
- 0–18.7%
From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.
Most likely half-time scorelines
- 0–040.4%
- 1–024.4%
- 0–111.4%
- 1–17.8%
- 2–07.7%
Same Dixon-Coles fit as the full-time list above, with rates halved to a 45-minute window and the low-score correction applied to that 1st-half block. The 0-0 row sits higher here than at full-time because fewer minutes have elapsed.
Goal totals
- More than 0.5 goals83.3%
- More than 1.5 goals55.4%
- More than 2.5 goals27.9%
- More than 3.5 goals11.4%
- More than 4.5 goals3.9%
- More than 5.5 goals1.1%
- Both teams score32.5%
Each row is the probability the match finishes with more than the listed number of goals. Both-teams-to-score is the probability each side scores at least once. All values are marginals of the Dixon-Coles joint goal grid that produces the scoreline list above — not market lines or any other operator construct.
Event-typed probabilities
- Morocco clean sheetOpposing team scores zero55.4%
- Scotland clean sheetOpposing team scores zero28.8%
Derived from the same Dixon-Coles joint distribution as the scoreline list. These are descriptive event probabilities — see CLAUDE.md §3/§4 (formerly COMPLIANCE.md §4.2.7) for the framing the project uses.
Win-margin probability
- Morocco by 4+2.4%
- Morocco by 3+8.5%
- Morocco by 2+24.2%
- Morocco by 1+51.6%
- Draw31.5%
- Scotland by 1+17.0%
- Scotland by 2+4.3%
- Scotland by 3+0.8%
- Scotland by 4+0.1%
Each row is the probability the match ends with the listed margin or larger in that direction. Marginal of the Dixon-Coles joint goal grid; the “by 1+” rows plus the draw row sum to 1.
▸How the match unfolds
Over 2.5 goals 27.9% · BTTS 32.5%
Game state through the match
- Morocco ahead52.3%
- Level30.1%
- Scotland ahead17.7%
Probability of each game state at minutes 0, 15, 30, 45, 60, 75, 90 — derived from two independent thinned-Poisson processes with the Dixon-Coles per-team rates. The three lines always sum to 1 at each minute. The right column shows the state at the match's closing minute.
When the first goal arrives
- 0–1526.3%
- 15–3019.4%
- 30–4514.3%
- 45–6010.5%
- 60–757.8%
- 75–905.7%
- No goal16.0%
Probability the match's first goal arrives in each 15-minute window. Homogeneous Poisson with combined rate λ = λh + λa from the Dixon-Coles fit; the seven rows (six windows + no-goal tail) sum to 1.
Half-time / full-time grid
| HT ↓ / FT → | HMorocco win | DDraw | AScotland win |
|---|---|---|---|
| HMorocco ahead | 32.7% | 3.6% | 0.6% |
| DLevel | 18.1% | 23.1% | 7.3% |
| AScotland ahead | 1.3% | 3.5% | 9.7% |
Each cell is P(half-time result, full-time result). All nine cells sum to 1. Derived from a halved-λ Dixon-Coles fit for the first half plus an independent-Poisson second-half convolution.
Comeback probability
- Morocco trail at HT, avoid defeat at FT4.9%
- Scotland trail at HT, avoid defeat at FT4.2%
Joint probability — P(side trailing at half-time AND avoiding defeat at full-time). NOT conditional on trailing at HT. Derived from the same half-time / full-time decomposition that produces the HT/FT grid above; a tied first half is neither a home nor an away comeback opportunity.
Cards
- Expected yellow cardsMean of the Poisson on total yellow cards.3.45
- Total yellows over 2.567.0%
- Total yellows over 3.545.3%
- Total yellows over 4.526.5%
- Any red cardP(at least one red card in the match).9.5%
Referee not yet assigned. Using the 2026 pool-mean per-match rate as a placeholder; the model picks up the referee's personal rate once the assignment is published. Total yellow cards modelled as a Poisson with mean equal to two team baselines plus the referee's deviation from the pool mean. Reds are modelled the same way, independently. See /docs/methodology/.
▸Teams & players
Top scorer: En-Nesyri (6.3%)
Match detail
Morocco
Model-rated key players: Sofyan Amrabat (MF) — P(scores) 6.3%; Youssef En-Nesyri (FW) — P(scores) 6.3%; Ayoub El Kaabi (FW) — P(scores) 4.7%.
Morocco under Mohamed Ouahbi play a counter attacker game with 46% possession. Their likely shape is a 4-3-3, though they have also used other. They apply moderate pressing intensity (PPDA 22.2).
Morocco rely on defensive discipline and quick transitions — absorbing pressure and converting turnovers into attacking chances. Concentration and defensive organisation for full 90-minute stretches will determine whether the approach holds against top opposition. With Mohamed Ouahbi appointed relatively recently (161 days before kickoff), building tactical cohesion in limited preparation time is the immediate challenge.
Scotland
Model-rated key players: Ché Adams (FW) — P(scores) 2.4%; Lyndon Dykes (FW) — P(scores) 1.9%; George Hirst (FW) — P(scores) 1.8%.
Scotland under Steve Clarke play a low block game, with just 44% possession — among the lowest in the field. They apply moderate pressing intensity (PPDA 26.0) and move the ball forward quickly at 5.7 passes per attack. They are selective in their shooting (9.2 per 90).
Scotland will look to stay compact and frustrate opponents, limiting space and hitting on the break. Set-piece proficiency — both attacking and defending — becomes critical when open-play chances are limited by design.
Scotland's predicted XI averages 1,545 club minutes over the 2024-25 season (light load).
Morocco coverage: 32.0% (7/11 XI matched against the FBref Big-5) · Scotland: 64.0% (9/11).
Morocco historically converts 11.8% of xG from set-pieces, contributing 0.15 expected set-piece goals in this fixture. Scotland converts 13.8% from set-pieces (0.08 expected). Combined, the model expects 0.23 set-piece goals across the 90 minutes.
- P(Morocco scores set-piece goal) 13.7%
- P(Scotland scores set-piece goal) 7.8%
- P(set-piece goal in match) 20.4%
Morocco: Mounir Chouiar on corners (26 corners), Sofyan Amrabat on free kicks (per fbref 2020 21) · Scotland: Andy Robertson on corners (27 corners), Kenny McLean on free kicks (per fbref 2022 23)
If a penalty is awarded to Morocco, the model gives 74.3% conversion, 72.0% for Scotland.
Morocco primary PK: Sofyan Amrabat (1/1 in 2019-20, per fbref 2020 21).
Derived from the model's per-fixture forecast joint and supporting reference data (predicted squads, set-piece xG share, PK posteriors, club minutes). See /docs/methodology/ for the full methodology.
Tactical forecast
- PPDA
- 22.2
- Possession
- 46%
- Directness (yds/pass)
- 6.6
- Long balls/90
- 34
- Set-piece xG
- 12%
- PPDA
- 26.0
- Possession
- 44%
- Directness (yds/pass)
- 5.8
- Long balls/90
- 43
- Set-piece xG
- 14%
Style profile per side from StatsBomb open-data aggregation across recent international tournaments (Euro 2020/2024, Copa America 2024, AFCON 2023, World Cup 2018/2022). The tactical-fingerprint badge maps each team’s observed style vector into one of eight canonical archetypes via a rule-based classifier; teams with fewer than three matches of qualifying coverage carry an “insufficient-data” label rather than being forced into a default. Sides outside the StatsBomb-open corpus use FotMob team match stats from recent qualifiers and friendlies instead (possession and shot volume only), marked as partial coverage. PPDA = passes the side allows per defensive action (lower = more intense press). Formation distributions are not yet produced — that head of the §2.7 classifier is pending its own data pull. See /docs/methodology/.
Squad depth
Most irreplaceable starters
Morocco
- Nayef AguerdCentre-backCover: Chadi Riad · 0.000.85gap
- Issa DiopCentre-backCover: Chadi Riad · 0.000.85gap
- Ayoub El KaabiStrikerNo natural backup0.33gap
Scotland
- Ryan ChristieCentral midfieldCover: Lewis Ferguson · 0.300.50gap
- Scott McTominayCentral midfieldCover: Lewis Ferguson · 0.300.45gap
- John McGinnCentral midfieldCover: Lewis Ferguson · 0.300.34gap
Gap = how far a side's rating at the position falls from the starter to his likely in-squad replacement (named under each name). Larger = harder to replace. Descriptive metric, does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Match conditions
- AltitudeNear sea level67 m
- Avg temperatureFive-year mean over the tournament window21.8 °C
- Avg humidity76%
- Heat stressShade WBGT ~24.1 °CLow heat stress
- Pitch surfacetemporary natural grass over artificial turf
Artificial-turf NFL stadium laying a temporary natural-grass pitch for the tournament.
Heat stress is a shade Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature proxy from the venue's climatology mean temperature and humidity; FIFA mandates cooling breaks at WBGT 32 °C. Evening kickoff (local time). These are long-window averages, not a match-day forecast, and they are not inputs to the forecast.
Top scorers · P(scores in this match)
- Sofyan AmrabatPKMF6.3%
- Youssef En-NesyriFW6.3%
- Ayoub El KaabiFW4.7%
- Ché AdamsFW2.4%
- Lyndon DykesFW1.9%
- George HirstFW1.8%
Per-player scoring rate from Model #5 (`p_score_per_match`). Reflects each player's npxG/90, expected minutes, team xG share, and the average opposing-team defence. See /docs/methodology/.
Recent match form
Last match player ratings
Morocco
vs Netherlands · avg 7.0
Scotland
vs Brazil · avg 5.7
Player scores from official highlight analysis of each team's most recent match. Observational, not a model input. Methodology →
Video analysis: player performance
Per-player ratings and event breakdowns from official highlights analysis. Tap a player to see their full match timeline.
8Ismael Saibari13'–50'Scored the winning goal and was a constant attacking threat, nearly adding a second.
1goals1shots▼
Scored the winning goal and was a constant attacking threat, nearly adding a second.
Match timeline
7Bilal El Khannouss55'–55'Contributed to Morocco's attacking set pieces with a header on target that required a save.
1shots1on target▼
Contributed to Morocco's attacking set pieces with a header on target that required a save.
Match timeline
7Brahim Díaz120'–120'Displayed good movement and skill to create a shot opportunity inside the penalty area.
1shots▼
Displayed good movement and skill to create a shot opportunity inside the penalty area.
Match timeline
8Angus Gunn55'–148'Made several crucial saves throughout the match, preventing Morocco from extending their lead and keeping Scotland in contention.
3saves▼
Made several crucial saves throughout the match, preventing Morocco from extending their lead and keeping Scotland in contention.
Match timeline
7Ryan Christie109'–109'Created one of Scotland's clearer scoring opportunities with a shot on target that was saved.
1shots1on target▼
Created one of Scotland's clearer scoring opportunities with a shot on target that was saved.
Match timeline
7AmmouniWas a persistent threat in Morocco's attack, registering multiple shots on target that tested the opposition goalkeeper.
Was a persistent threat in Morocco's attack, registering multiple shots on target that tested the opposition goalkeeper.
6John McGinnShowed attacking intent by getting into good positions, though without a direct impact on the score.
Showed attacking intent by getting into good positions, though without a direct impact on the score.
4Grant Hanley30'–30'Experienced a moment of miscommunication that nearly led to a costly own goal.
▼
Experienced a moment of miscommunication that nearly led to a costly own goal.
Match timeline
Match observations
- Morocco secured a 1-0 victory over Scotland in a match that saw both teams create opportunities.
- Morocco's early goal set the tone, and they continued to threaten throughout the game, particularly with quick runs into the box.
- Scotland showed resilience, especially in the second half, generating several chances but ultimately failing to find an equalizer.
▸Under the hood
Model-by-model comparison
Morocco vs Scotland
| Model | Weight | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EloRating-based strength estimate | 32% | 55.2% | 22.0% | 22.8% |
| Dixon-ColesGoal-process model with low-score correction | 63% | 51.7% | 31.4% | 17.0% |
| Hierarchical PoissonBayesian model with confederation pooling | 6% | 49.3% | 30.9% | 19.8% |
| Bayesian stackingLearned-weight combination | — | 54.9% | 34.7% | 10.3% |
| Ensemble (published)Uniform average + isotonic calibration | — | 54.7% | 30.4% | 14.8% |
How each model works
- Elo
- Each team carries a single strength rating updated after every match by a margin-aware K-factor. Match probabilities come from the logistic function of the rating gap. Elo is fast-adapting but coarse — it sees only who won and by how much, not how the goals were scored.
- Dixon-Coles
- A Poisson regression on team-level attack and defence parameters, fitted via maximum likelihood with an exponential time-decay weighting. The Dixon-Coles correction adjusts the four low-score cells (0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1) where independent Poisson underestimates dependence. Produces full scoreline distributions, not just H/D/A.
- Hierarchical Poisson
- A Bayesian Poisson model fitted via MCMC (PyMC) with hierarchical priors that pool attack and defence parameters within confederations. Shrinks small-sample teams toward their confederation mean — helpful for nations with few recent competitive fixtures. Slower to fit but better-calibrated on the tails.
- Bayesian stacking
- Optimises simplex weights (w_elo, w_dc, w_hp) to maximise the leave-one-out log-score across a walk-forward backtest (Yao et al. 2018). The result is a weighted average of the three component models' probabilities, then isotonic-calibrated. Adds no extra features — just learns which component to trust more from historical accuracy.
- Ensemble (published)
- Equal-weight average of all three component models, followed by per-class isotonic regression calibration fitted on 24 months of walk-forward out-of-fold predictions. This is the probability published on the site. The uniform mean is deliberately simple — it avoids overfitting to the stacking weights' training window.
Three independent component models feed two combination strategies. The uniform ensemble is the published probability; Bayesian stacking uses learned weights. Amber bars flag >5pp divergence from the published number. Full methodology
Probability decomposition (transparency surface)
- Baseline ensemble — P(Morocco win)51.3%
- + Lineup contribution0.0pp
- + Style-matchup contribution0.0pp
- Published P(Morocco win)51.4%
Decomposition of the published P(Morocco win) into the calibrated- baseline plus contributions from the §2.3 expected-XI lineup delta and the §2.7 style-matchup interaction. The §2.7 roadmap is explicit that style effects are second-order to team strength — single-digit-percentage P(win) shifts on extreme style matchups, near-zero on balanced ones. We surface the decomposition for transparency even when the contributions are small; the baseline carries the prediction. Methodology: /docs/methodology.
For this fixture both contributions round to under 0.05pp — the fitted style-matchup pair effect is in the small-magnitude regime the model expects to dominate.
Head-to-head history
| Date | Competition | Venue | Score | Result | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Jun 2026 | FIFA World Cup | NFoxborough | 1–0 | W | — |
| 23 Jun 1998 | FIFA World Cup | NSaint-Étienne | 3–0 | W | — |
Morocco vs Scotland, every senior international meeting in the martj42 results dataset (score from Morocco's perspective; H/A/N = home/away/neutral).
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for Morocco or Scotland.
- Stage:
- Group C · Matchday 2
- Date:
- 19 Jun
Ranked by likely importance. None of these feed the forecast: the probabilities rest on team strength, venue conditions and the style matchup.
- 1.Squad availability: 1 carrying a fitness doubt across the two squads, 1 of them projected starters. The forecast does not adjust for who is missing: its lineup channel currently contributes zero, so this is context the probabilities do not include.
Morocco
Morocco: 1 carrying a fitness doubt.
- DoubtNayef Aguerd, the third-choice defender, is recovering from Groin injury and is a fitness watch item; if unavailable the projected XI shifts.
Scotland
Scotland come in at close to full strength.
Availability runs in Scotland's favour here: Morocco are managing a fitness concern over Nayef Aguerd, while Scotland's projected XI looks intact.
Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.
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