Group C · Matchday 3

Full-timeFT
Brazil
3:0
Scotland

The day's strongest pairing by combined FIFA ranking is free for everyone: full forecast and full live tracker. Every other match needs a Standard Pass. See the Pass

Live descriptive stats

BrazilScotland
Expected goals (xG) — predicted vs actual
predictedactualdiff
Brazil2.144.41+2.27
Scotland0.580.87+0.29

Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.

Shots
20
13
Shots on target
9
4
Possession (%)
53%
47%
Corners
6
6
Fouls
9
10
Yellow cards
2
1
Red cards
0
0

Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.

Analysis

How it plays out

Brazil's high press game meets Scotland's low block shape. Scotland will concede territory deliberately and look to hit the spaces Brazil's high line leaves behind. Brazil's aggressive press (PPDA 17.1) against Scotland's deeper build-up (PPDA 26.0) creates a clear territory question: can Brazil force errors high up, or will Scotland play through the press and find space behind it?

What decides it

Brazil press high (PPDA 17.1). If the press doesn't win the ball early, the space behind their back line becomes exposed. Scotland defend deep and limit space. Set pieces and individual errors become the most likely routes to goal. Raphinha's 16.5% scoring probability is the highest in this fixture. Containing that output is Scotland's primary defensive task.

Off the pitch

Steve Clarke (7 years in charge of Scotland) vs Carlo Ancelotti (1 years). That tenure gap shows up in squad familiarity and set-piece coordination.

The angle

The model gives Scotland just 14.4% to win. Every World Cup produces group-stage upsets; the question is whether this fixture is one of them.

Latest news & match context

Team news
Match conditions
Stage:
Group C · Matchday 3
Date:
24 Jun
Availability

Brazil

Brazil come in at close to full strength.

Scotland

Scotland come in at close to full strength.

What it means

Brazil and Scotland both come in at close to full strength, so the forecast rests on baseline team strength rather than late team-news swings.

The model's style-matchup analysis nudges the forecast +1.4pp toward Brazil, versus the baseline team-strength prior.

Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.

LiveDescriptive stats and the delayed live win probability · updates every ~30 seconds

Chance-creation momentum

rolling 10-minute xG · delayed
Brazil (above the line)Scotland (below)
15'30'HT60'75'Goal, 7' · Vinicius JuniorGoal, 45' · Vinicius JuniorGoal, 60' · M. Cunha

Expected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, Brazil minus Scotland: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.

Live commentary & events

BrazilScotland
  • GoalVinicius Junior· RayanVinicius Junior scores for Brazil.7'
  • VAR reviewVinicius JuniorVAR review under way.22'
  • GoalVinicius Junior· Bruno GuimaraesVinicius Junior scores for Brazil.45'+3
  • 46'SubstitutionA. Robertson· K. TierneyScotland change: K. Tierney.
  • GoalM. Cunha· Bruno GuimaraesM. Cunha scores for Brazil.60'
  • Yellow cardDanilo· TrippingDanilo is booked — Tripping.62'
  • SubstitutionCasemiro· FabinhoBrazil change: Fabinho.65'
  • SubstitutionLucas Paqueta· G. MartinelliBrazil change: G. Martinelli.66'
  • SubstitutionM. Cunha· NeymarBrazil change: Neymar.76'
  • 82'SubstitutionN. Patterson· A. RalstonScotland change: A. Ralston.
  • 82'SubstitutionB. Gannon-Doak· R. ChristieScotland change: R. Christie.
  • SubstitutionDouglas Santos· Alex SandroBrazil change: Alex Sandro.82'
  • SubstitutionRayan· EndrickBrazil change: Endrick.82'
  • Yellow cardFabinho· TrippingFabinho is booked — Tripping.82'
  • 89'Yellow cardR. Christie· HoldingR. Christie is booked — Holding.
  • 90'+1SubstitutionL. Shankland· C. AdamsScotland change: C. Adams.
  • 90'+1SubstitutionJ. McGinn· F. CurtisScotland change: F. Curtis.

Player involvement

Brazil

Vinicius Junior7' Goal · 45'+3 Goal
AABruno Guimaraes45'+3 Assist · 60' Assist
M. Cunha60' Goal · 76' On
ARayan7' Assist · 82' On
Danilo62' Yellow card
Fabinho65' Off · 82' Yellow card

Scotland

R. Christie82' Off · 89' Yellow card
Pre-match modelFrozen before kickoff

Pre-match forecast

Brazil win
74.4%
Draw
20.8%
Scotland win
4.8%
Brazil
2.14
expected
goals
Scotland
0.58

The published probability for this fixture is fixed at lineup confirmation (≈1 hour before kickoff) and never updates afterwards. It is the number the post-match recap holds accountable. The live win probability in the Live section is a separate, delayed, descriptive estimate; it does not replace the published forecast.

Most likely scorelines

  • 2–0
    15.1%
  • 1–0
    13.7%
  • 3–0
    10.8%
  • 2–1
    8.7%
  • 1–1
    8.7%

From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.

How the live probability works. The published pre-match forecast is frozen at the T-1h lineup-confirmation pass and never changes after kickoff; the post-match recap scores that frozen number against the result. The live win probability shown during play is the same model re-read against the current score and time remaining. It refreshes about once a minute, is always delayed, and is a descriptive research figure, not a betting product or a price of any kind. See /docs/methodology/ for the full framing.