The knockout bracket is set. We traced every team's path from the Round of 32 through to the final. Argentina's route to the title match could avoid every top-10 side until the semifinal. Austria's path runs through Spain, Portugal, and France before a potential final against Argentina. The bracket halves are wildly unbalanced: five of the eight highest-rated teams are crammed into the top half, guaranteeing a bloodbath. Here is the full map.

The interior of SoFi Stadium three hours before a 2026 FIFA World Cup match, the central scoreboard reading FIFA World Cup 2026 above an empty pitch.

Em destaque

What 54 World Cup matches taught the model

The group stage is almost over. Fifty-four matches graded, every probability scored. The model's overall Brier is 0.541, better than its own pre-tournament backtest of 0.572. But that headline masks a rougher truth: a brutal opening week, a draw blind spot the calibrator never saw coming, and heavy favourites who kept stumbling. Here is the full scorecard, the experiments we ran mid-tournament, the results that survived testing, and the ones that didn't.

Em destaque

Every player rated, every substitute mapped: deep match visualization is live

Every fixture page now has a deep interactive visualization: starting XIs, scoring threat, player ratings, defensive shape, synergy lines, and squad-depth analysis. Click any player, swap them for their real bench alternative, and watch the model recalculate. France's most irreplaceable player is not Mbappe. Argentina get better when Otamendi sits. The numbers are all here.

Principais candidatos · probabilidade do modelo

Tabela completa →

Spain#1

17.2%

Argentina#2

15.9%

Brazil#3

12.9%

Portugal#4

9.3%

France#5

8.7%

England#6

7.0%

Fase de grupos

Group D is the tightest race — United States at 35%, Turkey at 24%

Panorama completo dos grupos →

Mata-mata

Spain leads the field at 17.2%, narrowly ahead of Argentina (15.9%)

Favoritos rodada a rodada →

Últimos artigos

Post1 Jul 2026

July 1: France demolish Sweden, Haaland rescues Norway, Mexico end a 40-year drought

R32 Day 3 delivered three comfortable results after Day 2's chaos. France dismantled Sweden 3-0 (Mbappe 45', 74', Barcola 53'), giving Mbappe 9 World Cup knockout goals, a new all-time record. Norway beat Ivory Coast 2-1 thanks to Haaland's 86th-minute winner, Norway's first-ever World Cup knockout win. Mexico beat Ecuador 2-0 at the Azteca for their first knockout victory in 40 years. The model called France (9.1%) and Norway (0.9%) correctly. Mexico (0.4%) was the miss: a near coin-flip the model gave to Ecuador.

Post30 Jun 2026

June 30: Paraguay eliminate Germany, Martinelli rescues Brazil, Morocco outlast the Netherlands

Three Round of 32 matches, two penalty shootouts, one 96th-minute winner. Paraguay, who lost 1-4 to the USA in the group stage and scored just 2 goals in 3 matches, knocked out four-time champions Germany on penalties (1-1, 4-3 pens). Brazil survived Japan thanks to Gabriel Martinelli's stoppage-time winner (2-1). Morocco equalized in the 91st minute against the Netherlands and won in a shootout (1-1, 3-2 pens). The model favoured Germany (4.8%) and had Brazil as marginal favourites (13.3%). It called Brazil correctly. Germany was the tournament's biggest R32 miss so far.

Post29 Jun 2026

Four models are better than three

The ensemble just got a fourth model. A small neural network that learns team-vs-team interactions the linear models miss. It passed an 8-fold backtest, improving the ensemble's calibration by 0.74 percentage points and its Brier score by 16 basis points. Here is what it is, why it works, and what it cost to get right.

Post29 Jun 2026

June 29: Brazil face Japan, Germany meet Paraguay

The knockout round opened last night: Canada 1-0 South Africa, Eustaquio in the 92nd minute, the model's first knockout call correct at 50.9%. Today brings Brazil vs Japan at NRG Stadium in Houston (model: 49.5% vs 22.9%, Elo gap 64) and Germany vs Paraguay at Gillette Stadium in Boston (52.5% vs 19.9%, Elo gap 103). Brazil's high press meets Japan's low block. Germany enter on a loss to Ecuador. Paraguay qualified with just 2 goals in 3 matches. If it goes to penalties, Germany's record (6 of 7 shootouts won) is the best of any remaining team.

Post28 Jun 2026

Group stage scorecard: grading all 72 predictions

The group stage is done and every prediction is on the record. Across 72 matches, the model averaged a Brier score of 0.516, with 57% of predictions graded A or A+. Group I (France's group) and Group J (Argentina's group) were the easiest to read. Group H (Spain, Uruguay, Cape Verde) was the hardest, anchored by the Spain 0-0 Cape Verde opener. Here is the full scorecard, group by group.

Post28 Jun 2026

The final 18: how the group stage ended

The group stage is done. Seventy-two matches, twelve groups, thirty-two teams through. Turkey stunned the USA in stoppage time. Ecuador scored their first goals of the tournament and beat Germany. Dembele hit a hat trick against Norway. Cape Verde qualified with three draws. Messi scored in a seventh consecutive World Cup match, a record. Kane passed Lineker. The model went 10 for 18 on direction across the final three matchdays (mean Brier 0.443), finishing the group stage at 0.516 overall. The draws kept hurting: seven of the eight misses were draws the model did not have as its top call.

Latest

Around the World Cup

14 JulNewsFolarin Balogun tells Donald Trump his World Cup red card intervention DID impact USA team before Belgium loss· Daily Mail — Football 14 JulNewsFrance vs. Spain, 2026 World Cup semifinals: Match thread and discussion· Stars and Stripes FC 14 JulNewsWorld Cup Watch Thread: Semi Finals | France vs Spain· Royal Blue Mersey 14 JulNewsFrance v Spain - who would England rather face in the World Cup final?· Daily Mirror — Football 14 JulNewsEngland captain Harry Kane hits out at ITV interviewer Gabriel Clarke 'trying to create division' between Thomas Tuchel and Jude Bellingham with his questioning at the World Cup· Daily Mail — Football 14 JulNewsWhat color jerseys are France and Spain wearing today? World Cup kit reveal· Yahoo Sports Australia 14 JulNewsBrazil’s World Cup Collapse Revives Debate Over Faith and Soccer· Religion Unplugged 14 JulNewsEngland World Cup semi-final and final? A reminder of where and when!· Sky Sports — Football 1 JulPostJuly 1: France demolish Sweden, Haaland rescues Norway, Mexico end a 40-year drought 30 JunPostJune 30: Paraguay eliminate Germany, Martinelli rescues Brazil, Morocco outlast the Netherlands 29 JunResearchNeural Poisson: a nonlinear extension of Dixon-Coles 24 JunModelSpainReach semi-final −11.1pp

Headlines link out to their source. Model moves are changes between our own probability snapshots.

Last 34 days

Biggest probability moves

Compared to model run 34 days ago (2026-05-21).

Reach semi-final

46.9% → 35.8%

Reach round of 16

80.3% → 69.8%

Reach quarter-final

61.3% → 52.3%

Reach quarter-final

47.5% → 38.5%

Reach semi-final

46.4% → 37.6%

Reach quarter-final

56.8% → 48.1%

Tags show the likely driver — a new result, a model update, or knock-on redistribution — not a proven cause.

Jogadores para ficar de olho

Diogo CostaPortugal · GK Erling HaalandNorway · FW Harry KaneEngland · FW Jude BellinghamEngland · MF Joško GvardiolCroatia · DF Kylian MbappéFrance · FW Antonee RobinsonUnited States · DF Ousmane DembéléFrance · FW Rayan Aït-NouriAlgeria · DF PedriSpain · MF

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