24 June 2026 · edwin-chan

Standard Pass: $10 through the end of group stage

The group stage wraps up this week. Before the knockouts begin, we're dropping the Standard Pass to $10 (from $15). Every match forecast, every pre-match probability, every post-match scorecard, for less than 10 cents a game. The price goes back up when the Round of 32 kicks off.

The group stage wraps up this week. Forty-eight of 72 group matches are done. The model has been graded on every one of them.

Before the knockouts begin, we're dropping the Standard Pass from $15 to $10. That is less than 10 cents per match for the rest of the tournament, through 31 December 2026.

What the Standard Pass includes

  • Full match probabilities: home win, draw, away win, plus scoreline distributions
  • Pre-match projections adjusted for confirmed lineups, suspensions, and rest days
  • Post-match Brier scorecards grading every probability the model published
  • Country pages with knockout paths and tournament win probabilities
  • Head-to-head comparisons for any matchup in the draw

The model updates before every match and grades itself after every result. You can follow exactly how well the probabilities are holding up on the live accuracy page.

The terms

  • Price: $10 one-time (was $15). No subscription, no auto-renewal.
  • Access: Through 31 December 2026.
  • Refund: 24-hour money-back, no questions asked.
  • When it ends: The price goes back to $15 when the Round of 32 kicks off.

The Pro Pass ($35) is unchanged. It adds full API access, the MCP server, and bulk data downloads.

View pricing

See the live forecast

This note draws on the same calibrated model that powers the full 2026 World Cup forecast — win probabilities for every fixture, projected line-ups, and the tournament-winner picture, refreshed on every run.

Explore the forecast →

See how the forecast holds up

OnThePitch grades every probability against what actually happens, and publishes the calibration in the open. Subscribe to follow the retrospectives and research as they ship — one email per post, no marketing.

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204 words · published 24 June 2026

#- announcement