Group D · Matchday 2
ParaguayvsTurkey
2026-06-19·20:00 localPredictions finalised
The forecast
Match-outcome probability
- Paraguay win32.0%
- Draw27.8%
- Turkey win40.2%
The model projects one of the most closely-contested fixtures of the round — Paraguay and Turkey are separated by fine margins across every outcome.
Why the model says this
Favoring Turkey
- ·Elo advantage of 69 points over Paraguay
- ·Expected goals 1.09 vs 1.00
What the model can't fully price
- ·Squad availability: 4 carrying a fitness doubt across the two squads, 2 of them projected starters. The forecast does not adjust for who is missing: its lineup channel currently contributes zero, so this is context the probabilities do not include.
- ·Rest differential: Paraguay have had 7 days since their previous match versus 6 for Turkey. Rest and recovery are not model inputs.
Form check
Paraguay
SteadyParaguay: 2W-1D-3L in their last 6 internationals.
2W-1D-3L in last 6
Turkey
ImprovingTurkey: 5W-1D-0L in their last 6 internationals.
5W-1D-0L in last 6
Analysis
How it plays out
Neither side has a rigid tactical identity. Both adapt to the opponent, so the first 15 minutes will reveal who imposes their plan first. Paraguay's aggressive press (PPDA 14.2) against Turkey's deeper build-up (PPDA 23.5) creates a clear territory question: can Paraguay force errors high up, or will Turkey play through the press and find space behind it?
What decides it
Turkey adjust shape to the opponent. That flexibility is an asset, but it takes longer to settle into a game. The scoring threat is evenly split: Antonio Sanabria (8.5%) and Hakan Çalhanoğlu (7.2%).
Off the pitch
No major off-pitch asymmetries. This one is decided by the football.
The angle
A Group D fixture where the result matters more for the standings than the headlines.
▸Goals & scorelines
Likeliest score 1–1 (14.3%) · xG 1.0 - 1.1
Expected goals
Mean of the Dixon-Coles joint goal distribution. Same fit that produces the most-likely-scoreline list below.
Most likely scorelines
- 1–114.3%
- 0–013.2%
- 0–112.6%
- 1–011.6%
- 1–27.3%
From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.
Most likely half-time scorelines
- 0–035.7%
- 0–118.4%
- 1–017.1%
- 1–110.2%
- 0–25.1%
Same Dixon-Coles fit as the full-time list above, with rates halved to a 45-minute window and the low-score correction applied to that 1st-half block. The 0-0 row sits higher here than at full-time because fewer minutes have elapsed.
Goal totals
- More than 0.5 goals86.8%
- More than 1.5 goals62.6%
- More than 2.5 goals34.8%
- More than 3.5 goals16.0%
- More than 4.5 goals6.1%
- More than 5.5 goals2.0%
- Both teams score42.8%
Each row is the probability the match finishes with more than the listed number of goals. Both-teams-to-score is the probability each side scores at least once. All values are marginals of the Dixon-Coles joint goal grid that produces the scoreline list above — not market lines or any other operator construct.
Event-typed probabilities
- Paraguay clean sheetOpposing team scores zero33.9%
- Turkey clean sheetOpposing team scores zero36.5%
Derived from the same Dixon-Coles joint distribution as the scoreline list. These are descriptive event probabilities — see CLAUDE.md §3/§4 (formerly COMPLIANCE.md §4.2.7) for the framing the project uses.
Win-margin probability
- Paraguay by 4+0.8%
- Paraguay by 3+3.6%
- Paraguay by 2+12.5%
- Paraguay by 1+32.3%
- Draw31.6%
- Turkey by 1+36.1%
- Turkey by 2+14.8%
- Turkey by 3+4.5%
- Turkey by 4+1.1%
Each row is the probability the match ends with the listed margin or larger in that direction. Marginal of the Dixon-Coles joint goal grid; the “by 1+” rows plus the draw row sum to 1.
▸How the match unfolds
Over 2.5 goals 34.8% · BTTS 42.8%
Game state through the match
- Paraguay ahead33.1%
- Level30.0%
- Turkey ahead36.9%
Probability of each game state at minutes 0, 15, 30, 45, 60, 75, 90 — derived from two independent thinned-Poisson processes with the Dixon-Coles per-team rates. The three lines always sum to 1 at each minute. The right column shows the state at the match's closing minute.
When the first goal arrives
- 0–1529.4%
- 15–3020.8%
- 30–4514.7%
- 45–6010.3%
- 60–757.3%
- 75–905.1%
- No goal12.3%
Probability the match's first goal arrives in each 15-minute window. Homogeneous Poisson with combined rate λ = λh + λa from the Dixon-Coles fit; the seven rows (six windows + no-goal tail) sum to 1.
Half-time / full-time grid
| HT ↓ / FT → | HParaguay win | DDraw | ATurkey win |
|---|---|---|---|
| HParaguay ahead | 19.5% | 4.6% | 1.4% |
| DLevel | 12.1% | 21.2% | 13.3% |
| ATurkey ahead | 1.3% | 4.6% | 22.1% |
Each cell is P(half-time result, full-time result). All nine cells sum to 1. Derived from a halved-λ Dixon-Coles fit for the first half plus an independent-Poisson second-half convolution.
Comeback probability
- Paraguay trail at HT, avoid defeat at FT5.9%
- Turkey trail at HT, avoid defeat at FT5.9%
Joint probability — P(side trailing at half-time AND avoiding defeat at full-time). NOT conditional on trailing at HT. Derived from the same half-time / full-time decomposition that produces the HT/FT grid above; a tied first half is neither a home nor an away comeback opportunity.
Cards
- Expected yellow cardsMean of the Poisson on total yellow cards.3.45
- Total yellows over 2.567.0%
- Total yellows over 3.545.3%
- Total yellows over 4.526.5%
- Any red cardP(at least one red card in the match).9.5%
Referee not yet assigned. Using the 2026 pool-mean per-match rate as a placeholder; the model picks up the referee's personal rate once the assignment is published. Total yellow cards modelled as a Poisson with mean equal to two team baselines plus the referee's deviation from the pool mean. Reds are modelled the same way, independently. See /docs/methodology/.
▸Teams & players
Top scorer: Sanabria (8.5%)
Match detail
Paraguay
Model-rated key players: Antonio Sanabria (FW) — P(scores) 8.5%; Julio Enciso (FW) — P(scores) 6.2%; Óscar Romero (FW) — P(scores) 5.5%.
Paraguay under Gustavo Alfaro play a balanced game with 48% possession. They press intensely (PPDA 14.2, top quartile (3rd of 40)) and move the ball forward quickly at 5.7 passes per attack. They generate a high volume of shots (13.4 per 90).
Paraguay will need to leverage their strengths while managing the physical demands of a tournament spread across three host countries.
Turkey
Model-rated key players: Hakan Çalhanoğlu (MF) — P(scores) 7.0%; Kenan Yıldız (FW) — P(scores) 3.5%; Kerem Aktürkoğlu (FW) — P(scores) 3.5%.
Turkey under Vincenzo Montella play a pragmatic game with 50% possession. They apply moderate pressing intensity (PPDA 23.5). They generate a high volume of shots (13.2 per 90) and rely heavily on set pieces (20% of their xG).
Turkey play a pragmatic, results-oriented game that adapts shape to the opposition. Tactical flexibility is their strength. The risk is inconsistency — without a default identity, a poor result can cascade if the team struggles to find a Plan B.
Paraguay historically converts 4.8% of xG from set-pieces, contributing 0.05 expected set-piece goals in this fixture. Turkey converts 20.5% from set-pieces (0.22 expected). Combined, the model expects 0.27 set-piece goals across the 90 minutes.
- P(Paraguay scores set-piece goal) 4.7%
- P(Turkey scores set-piece goal) 19.9%
- P(set-piece goal in match) 23.7%
Paraguay: Óscar Romero on free kicks (per fbref 2017 18) · Turkey: Hakan Çalhanoğlu on corners (28 corners) (per fbref 2022 23)
If a penalty is awarded to Paraguay, the model gives 72.5% conversion, 73.3% for Turkey.
Paraguay primary PK: Antonio Sanabria (1/2 in 2018-19, per fbref 2017 18) · Turkey primary PK: Hakan Çalhanoğlu (3/3 in 2021-22, per fbref 2022 23).
Derived from the model's per-fixture forecast joint and supporting reference data (predicted squads, set-piece xG share, PK posteriors, club minutes). See /docs/methodology/ for the full methodology.
Tactical forecast
- PPDA
- 14.2
- Possession
- 48%
- Directness (yds/pass)
- 7.3
- Long balls/90
- 33
- Set-piece xG
- 5%
- PPDA
- 23.5
- Possession
- 50%
- Directness (yds/pass)
- 5.5
- Long balls/90
- 33
- Set-piece xG
- 21%
Style profile per side from StatsBomb open-data aggregation across recent international tournaments (Euro 2020/2024, Copa America 2024, AFCON 2023, World Cup 2018/2022). The tactical-fingerprint badge maps each team’s observed style vector into one of eight canonical archetypes via a rule-based classifier; teams with fewer than three matches of qualifying coverage carry an “insufficient-data” label rather than being forced into a default. Sides outside the StatsBomb-open corpus use FotMob team match stats from recent qualifiers and friendlies instead (possession and shot volume only), marked as partial coverage. PPDA = passes the side allows per defensive action (lower = more intense press). Formation distributions are not yet produced — that head of the §2.7 classifier is pending its own data pull. See /docs/methodology/.
Squad depth
Most irreplaceable starters
Paraguay
- Omar AldereteCentre-backCover: Gustavo Velázquez · 0.410.38gap
- Júnior AlonsoCentre-backCover: Gustavo Velázquez · 0.410.37gap
- Miguel AlmirónWingerNo natural backup0.35gap
Turkey
- Orkun KökçüCentral midfieldNo natural backup0.59gap
- Ferdi KadıoğluFull-backCover: Eren Elmalı · 0.620.30gap
- Zeki ÇelikFull-backCover: Eren Elmalı · 0.620.15gap
Gap = how far a side's rating at the position falls from the starter to his likely in-squad replacement (named under each name). Larger = harder to replace. Descriptive metric, does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Match conditions
- AltitudeNear sea level4 m
- Avg temperatureFive-year mean over the tournament window19.6 °C
- Avg humidity62%
- Heat stressShade WBGT ~20.6 °CLow heat stress
- Pitch surfacenatural grass
Natural-grass NFL stadium; FIFA-standard hybrid pitch for the tournament.
Heat stress is a shade Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature proxy from the venue's climatology mean temperature and humidity; FIFA mandates cooling breaks at WBGT 32 °C. Evening kickoff (local time). These are long-window averages, not a match-day forecast, and they are not inputs to the forecast.
Top scorers · P(scores in this match)
- Antonio SanabriaPKFW8.5%
- Julio EncisoFW6.2%
- Óscar RomeroFW5.5%
- Hakan ÇalhanoğluPKMF7.0%
- Kenan YıldızFW3.5%
- Kerem AktürkoğluFW3.5%
Per-player scoring rate from Model #5 (`p_score_per_match`). Reflects each player's npxG/90, expected minutes, team xG share, and the average opposing-team defence. See /docs/methodology/.
Recent match form
Last match player ratings
Paraguay
vs Germany · avg 8.0
Worked well: They scored an early goal from a corner and their goalkeeper delivered a strong performance, making key stops. Their penalty takers showed composure.
Struggled: They conceded an equalizer and faced sustained pressure from Germany, particularly in extra time, indicating some defensive vulnerabilities.
Turkey
vs United States · avg 5.5
Player scores from official highlight analysis of each team's most recent match. Observational, not a model input. Methodology →
Video analysis: player performance
Per-player ratings and event breakdowns from official highlights analysis. Tap a player to see their full match timeline.
9Paraguay's GoalkeeperDelivered an exceptional performance with multiple crucial saves, single-handedly preserving the clean sheet and the team's lead, especially after playing with ten men.
Delivered an exceptional performance with multiple crucial saves, single-handedly preserving the clean sheet and the team's lead, especially after playing with ten men.
8Player #230'–0'Scored the decisive early goal with clinical finishing, which proved to be the match-winner.
1goals▼
Scored the decisive early goal with clinical finishing, which proved to be the match-winner.
Match timeline
2AldareteReceived an early red card for a dangerous challenge, severely disadvantaging his team for the majority of the match.
Received an early red card for a dangerous challenge, severely disadvantaging his team for the majority of the match.
6Arda Güler0'–0'Showed creative intent and good positioning in attack, but his efforts were consistently blocked without leading to a goal.
▼
Showed creative intent and good positioning in attack, but his efforts were consistently blocked without leading to a goal.
Match timeline
6Kökçü0'–0'Demonstrated his ability from dead-ball situations by forcing a save from a dangerous free-kick.
1shots1on target▼
Demonstrated his ability from dead-ball situations by forcing a save from a dangerous free-kick.
Match timeline
6Yılmaz0'–0'Actively involved in multiple attacking movements, creating chances for himself and others, but lacked the clinical finish or precise pass to convert.
2shots▼
Actively involved in multiple attacking movements, creating chances for himself and others, but lacked the clinical finish or precise pass to convert.
Match timeline
6Demiral0'–0'Provided a consistent aerial threat from set pieces and crosses, getting on the end of multiple opportunities, though without scoring.
3shots1on target▼
Provided a consistent aerial threat from set pieces and crosses, getting on the end of multiple opportunities, though without scoring.
Match timeline
6Mert Müldür0'–0'No specific performance details were provided, but his visible disappointment reflected the team's overall sentiment.
▼
No specific performance details were provided, but his visible disappointment reflected the team's overall sentiment.
Match timeline
Match observations
- Paraguay secured a narrow 1-0 victory over Turkey in a match that saw an early goal and a red card.
- Paraguay's early strike allowed them to adopt a defensive posture, which they maintained effectively despite being reduced to ten men.
- Turkey dominated possession and created numerous chances, particularly in the second half, but were unable to convert their opportunities.
▸Under the hood
Model-by-model comparison
Paraguay vs Turkey
| Model | Weight | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EloRating-based strength estimate | 32% | 33.3% | 22.0% | 44.7% |
| Dixon-ColesGoal-process model with low-score correction | 63% | 31.5% | 31.2% | 37.3% |
| Hierarchical PoissonBayesian model with confederation pooling | 6% | 32.4% | 30.2% | 37.4% |
| Bayesian stackingLearned-weight combination | — | 29.5% | 32.7% | 37.8% |
| Ensemble (published)Uniform average + isotonic calibration | — | 31.8% | 28.5% | 39.7% |
How each model works
- Elo
- Each team carries a single strength rating updated after every match by a margin-aware K-factor. Match probabilities come from the logistic function of the rating gap. Elo is fast-adapting but coarse — it sees only who won and by how much, not how the goals were scored.
- Dixon-Coles
- A Poisson regression on team-level attack and defence parameters, fitted via maximum likelihood with an exponential time-decay weighting. The Dixon-Coles correction adjusts the four low-score cells (0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1) where independent Poisson underestimates dependence. Produces full scoreline distributions, not just H/D/A.
- Hierarchical Poisson
- A Bayesian Poisson model fitted via MCMC (PyMC) with hierarchical priors that pool attack and defence parameters within confederations. Shrinks small-sample teams toward their confederation mean — helpful for nations with few recent competitive fixtures. Slower to fit but better-calibrated on the tails.
- Bayesian stacking
- Optimises simplex weights (w_elo, w_dc, w_hp) to maximise the leave-one-out log-score across a walk-forward backtest (Yao et al. 2018). The result is a weighted average of the three component models' probabilities, then isotonic-calibrated. Adds no extra features — just learns which component to trust more from historical accuracy.
- Ensemble (published)
- Equal-weight average of all three component models, followed by per-class isotonic regression calibration fitted on 24 months of walk-forward out-of-fold predictions. This is the probability published on the site. The uniform mean is deliberately simple — it avoids overfitting to the stacking weights' training window.
Three independent component models feed two combination strategies. The uniform ensemble is the published probability; Bayesian stacking uses learned weights. Amber bars flag >5pp divergence from the published number. Full methodology
Probability decomposition (transparency surface)
- Baseline ensemble — P(Paraguay win)32.0%
- + Lineup contribution0.0pp
- + Style-matchup contribution0.0pp
- Published P(Paraguay win)32.0%
Decomposition of the published P(Paraguay win) into the calibrated- baseline plus contributions from the §2.3 expected-XI lineup delta and the §2.7 style-matchup interaction. The §2.7 roadmap is explicit that style effects are second-order to team strength — single-digit-percentage P(win) shifts on extreme style matchups, near-zero on balanced ones. We surface the decomposition for transparency even when the contributions are small; the baseline carries the prediction. Methodology: /docs/methodology.
For this fixture both contributions round to under 0.05pp — the fitted style-matchup pair effect is in the small-magnitude regime the model expects to dominate.
Head-to-head history
| Date | Competition | Venue | Score | Result | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Jun 2026 | FIFA World Cup | NSanta Clara | 1–0 | W | — |
Paraguay vs Turkey, every senior international meeting in the martj42 results dataset (score from Paraguay's perspective; H/A/N = home/away/neutral).
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for Paraguay or Turkey.
- Stage:
- Group D · Matchday 2
- Date:
- 19 Jun
Ranked by likely importance. None of these feed the forecast: the probabilities rest on team strength, venue conditions and the style matchup.
- 1.Rest differential: Paraguay have had 7 days since their previous match versus 6 for Turkey. Rest and recovery are not model inputs.
Paraguay and Turkey both come in at close to full strength, so the forecast rests on baseline team strength rather than late team-news swings.
Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.
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