Forecast vs result · Group F · Matchday 2
Japan vs Tunisia
2026-06-20
Post-match calibration
Pre-match probability vs realised outcome
- Japan win· realised54.6%
- Draw27.7%
- Tunisia win17.7%
Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.
Key moments
D. Kamada (Japan)
K. Nakamura
A. Ueda (Japan)
K. Itakura
J. Ito (Japan)
A. Ueda
A. Ueda (Japan)
K. Sano
Match statistics
Scoreline prediction
The actual scoreline (4–0) was outside the model's top 5 predicted outcomes.
Team performance
Japan is in excellent form, having delivered a dominant 4-0 victory in this significant match.
The team suffered a comprehensive 0-4 defeat, indicating very poor current form.
Video analysis: player performance
Per-player ratings and event breakdowns from official highlights analysis. Tap a player to see their full match timeline.
8Daichi Kamada0'–0'Scored the crucial opening goal with excellent positioning and a clinical finish.
1goals▼
Scored the crucial opening goal with excellent positioning and a clinical finish.
Match timeline
8Ritsu DoanScored a fantastic second goal with a powerful and accurate shot from outside the box.
Scored a fantastic second goal with a powerful and accurate shot from outside the box.
8Junya ItoScored the third goal with a composed finish after a well-timed run onto a through ball.
Scored the third goal with a composed finish after a well-timed run onto a through ball.
7Ayase Ueda0'–0'Tapped in the fourth goal from close range, demonstrating good positioning and striker's instinct.
1goals▼
Tapped in the fourth goal from close range, demonstrating good positioning and striker's instinct.
Match timeline
7Zion Suzuki0'–0'Made a crucial early save and contributed to Japan's clean sheet.
1saves▼
Made a crucial early save and contributed to Japan's clean sheet.
Match timeline
6Ao Tanaka0'–0'Contributed to Japan's offensive efforts with a shot from distance that was saved.
1shots1on target▼
Contributed to Japan's offensive efforts with a shot from distance that was saved.
Match timeline
8Mouez DahmenMade multiple outstanding and crucial saves, including a goal-line stop, preventing an even larger defeat for Tunisia.
Made multiple outstanding and crucial saves, including a goal-line stop, preventing an even larger defeat for Tunisia.
Match observations
- Japan delivered a dominant performance, securing a comprehensive 4-0 victory over Tunisia.
- The match saw Japan's attacking players display clinical finishing, converting their chances effectively.
- Tunisia's goalkeeper, Mouez Dahmen, was a standout performer for his side, making numerous crucial saves to limit the scoreline.