Forecast vs result · Group G · Matchday 2

Belgium vs Iran

2026-06-21

The recap publishes at full time. Once this match finishes, this page shows how the frozen pre-match forecast below scored against the realised outcome: Brier score, log loss, and final xG vs predicted xG. Until then, follow it live on the live tracker.

Pre-match forecast

Belgium win
61.5%
Draw
24.8%
Iran win
13.7%
Belgium
1.53
expected
goals
Iran
0.81

Video analysis: player performance

Per-player ratings and event breakdowns from official highlights analysis. Tap a player to see their full match timeline.

Belgium
9
Thibaut Courtois

His numerous world-class saves were instrumental in keeping Belgium in the match and securing a point.

3saves

Match timeline

8
Romelu Lukaku76'–76'

Scored the vital equalizing goal, providing the attacking impetus Belgium needed to get back into the match.

1goals

Match timeline

76'Belgium equalizes with a volley from inside the box, making the score 1-1.
6
Kevin De Bruyne

Showed moments of quality in attack but failed to convert a clear scoring opportunity.

1shots

Match timeline

6
Jérémy Doku

Created a corner by driving at the Iran defender, but had no further notable impact.

6
Arthur Theate

Was fouled by an opponent, but his overall defensive or attacking contributions were not highlighted.

5
Leandro Trossard

Missed a clear opportunity by shooting over the bar after a corner.

5
Dodi Lukébakio

Committed a foul, and no other significant contributions were noted.

Iran
8
Mehdi Taremi

Scored a brilliant opening goal and was a constant threat, but missed a crucial late chance that could have secured the win.

1goals2shots1on target

Match timeline

7
Mahdi Torabi

Created a dangerous scoring opportunity by breaking through and hitting the post, almost giving Iran an early lead.

7
Mehdi Ghayedi

Created a significant scoring opportunity by chipping the goalkeeper, which required a brilliant save to deny him.

6
Alireza Jahanbakhsh

Was fouled by an opponent, but his overall contributions were not highlighted.

4
Sardar Azmoun

Received a yellow card for a foul and was visibly frustrated by missed opportunities, indicating a poor performance.

Match observations

  • The match was a tense and hard-fought encounter at SoFi Stadium, with both teams desperate for a victory to advance in the World Cup.
  • The first half was a cagey affair with few clear-cut chances, though Iran came closest with a shot hitting the post.
  • The second half exploded into life with end-to-end action, featuring a goal for Iran, a late equalizer for Belgium, and numerous dramatic moments.

How to read this. A single match's Brier and log-loss are noisy. What matters is how the forecast calibrates across many matches. This per-fixture recap is one row of the aggregate calibration scoreboard at /docs/calibration/. The pre-match probability shown here is the one frozen before kickoff; it was never re-priced during play.