Research · Counter-narrative
Where the model and FIFA rank disagree
Snapshot · 2026-05-22Model 1.0.0For each WC 2026 nation we compare the model's tournament-winner probability against a FIFA-rank-implied baseline. The implied probability is a transparent monotone transform of FIFA rank — a softmax over the negative rank with temperature τ = 8 — so a higher rank gives a higher implied probability and the 48 implied probabilities sum to one across the field. The table below lists the teams with the largest positive and negative deltas. Methodology in /docs/methodology/.
48 teams · transform: implied_j = exp(-rank_j / tau) / sum_k exp(-rank_k / tau); teams with no FIFA rank substitute the field's median rank
Top 10: model rates above FIFA-rank baseline
Largest positive delta: Argentina (+9.06pp)
Per-team delta between the model's tournament-winner probability and a FIFA-rank-implied baseline. The Standard Pass unlocks the full table.
Top 10: model rates below FIFA-rank baseline
Largest negative delta: Belgium (-2.95pp)
Per-team delta where the model rates the team below the FIFA-rank-implied baseline. The Standard Pass unlocks the full table.
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What this comparison is — and isn't
The implied probabilities here are derived solely from each team's public FIFA rank via a documented softmax transform. This page does NOT compare to bookmaker odds, to prediction-market prices, or to any external commercial probability source. The only baseline used is FIFA rank.
A large positive delta is not a recommendation; it is a description of where the model's ensemble (Elo + Dixon Coles + Hierarchical Poisson, calibrated by isotonic regression) reaches a different conclusion from what FIFA rank alone would suggest. The model's out-of-sample calibration is published on the methodology page; FIFA rank's implied probability is shown here for comparison only, not validated as a forecast.