Uruguay

Snapshot · 2026-06-24Model 1.0.0

CONMEBOL·Group H·FIFA #16

R16 contender

Fernando Muslera: 39 at kickoff with 134 caps — last World Cup for the #1.

Rival: Spain (#1)
Key: Darwin Núñez (FW)

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Final squad announced · Uruguay · 2026-05-31

Source: The New York Times ↗

WC2026 results

Record0W · 2D · 0L

Goals3:3 (0)

Form

Date	Opponent	Score	Result	Venue
Jun 15	Saudi Arabia	1–1	D	Miami Gardens
Jun 21	Cape Verde	2–2	D	Miami Gardens

Tournament outlook

Analysis

Uruguay sit in the second tier of contenders with a 2.3% tournament probability (12th in the field). Drawn in Group H alongside Spain, Saudi Arabia, Cape Verde, they are projected at 93.9% to advance to the knockout stage.

How they play

Uruguay under Marcelo Bielsa play a balanced game with 49% possession. Their likely shape is a 3-5-2, though they have also used 4-3-3 and 4-4-2. They apply moderate pressing intensity (PPDA 18.0) and move the ball forward quickly at 5.7 passes per attack.

Path to success

Uruguay face Spain, Saudi Arabia, Cape Verde in Group H, with a 93.9% probability of advancing to the knockout rounds. A quarter-final run is realistic at 23.3%, though reaching the semi-finals (11.9%) would represent an exceptional campaign. Navigating the expanded 48-team format, which adds a round of 32, means an extra knockout fixture for any team with title ambitions.

What they must execute

Uruguay will need to leverage their strengths while managing the physical demands of a tournament spread across three host countries.

Controversial take

The model and FIFA rankings tell different stories for Uruguay. Model rates them #11 by tournament-winner probability — 5 places higher than FIFA #16.

Key numbers

2.3%Win probability12th in field

1892Elo ratingRanked 15th globally

3-5-2Predicted formationFrom 3 observed matches

18.0PPDA (press intensity)Lower = more pressing; top quartile (12th of 48)

21.6%Tournament goal probability — Darwin NúñezTop projected scorer in the squad (FW)

3.4 yearsManager tenureMarcelo Bielsa — 3 World Cups as coach

How they play

Style vs the 48-team field

Balanced · style profile from 14 recent matches

Press

Build-up

5.7

Directness

7.6

Width (proxy)

402.7

Tempo

8.1

Set-piece reliance

15.4

What to watch: a notably direct, vertical attack.

Percentiles position Uruguay against the 48-team field. Higher means more of that trait, not better or worse. Press is inverted (lower PPDA = higher press); width uses crossing rate as a proxy; tempo is open-play passes per minute of possession. Descriptive style analytics; does not feed the published probabilities.

Group H finish · Uruguay

Monte Carlo, 100,000 sims

Top two advance to the round of 32; best 8 of 12 third-placed teams also qualify.

1st (group winner)
Advances to R32
22.6%
2nd (runner-up)
Advances to R32
56.7%
3rd
Advances only if among the best 8 of 12 third-placed teams
16.0%
4th
Eliminated
4.6%

Stage progression · Uruguay

, 100,000 sims

90.6%AdvAdvance from group
41.3%R16Round of 16
23.2%QFQuarter-final
12.2%SFSemi-final
5.8%FFinal
2.4%WinWin the tournament

Likely knockout path · Uruguay

Monte Carlo, 10,000 sims

Most frequent opponents per round, conditional on reaching it.

R32

Round of 32

Argentina52%

Austria18%

Algeria13%

R16

Round of 16

England11%

Croatia10%

Belgium9%

Quarter-final

Portugal16%

Colombia12%

Belgium9%

Semi-final

Brazil15%

France12%

England10%

Final

Spain26%

Argentina12%

Germany8%

The squad

Confirmed squad

Wikipedia call-up pool · snapshot 2026-05-28

Roster confirmed by the federation's official squad announcement. The XI/bench split below is the model's composite-rating ordering, not the head coach's lineup.

Goalkeepers (1)

PlayerStat

Fernando Muslera#23Caps-driven↘Estudiantes

134c77save%0.84

Defenders (4)

PlayerStat

José María Giménez#2Jersey-boosted↘Atlético Madrid

99c20tackles0.56

Mathías Olivera#16↗Napoli

35c82tackles0.65

Matías Viña#17Caps-driven↗River Plate

43c49tackles0.33

Sebastián Cáceres#3Jersey-boosted→América

24c—0.70

Midfielders (3)

PlayerStat

Federico Valverde#15Caps-driven↗Real Madrid

73c2assists0.73

Giorgian de Arrascaeta#10RecoveringCaps-driven↘Flamengo

60c7assists0.77

Nicolás de la Cruz#7Jersey-boosted↗Flamengo

34c5assists0.81

Forwards (3)

PlayerStat

Darwin Núñez#9↗Al-Hilal

38c13goals0.97

Brian Rodríguez#18América

32c4goals0.60

Facundo Pellistri#11Jersey-boosted→Panathinaikos

39c2goals0.28

Bench

★ likely first sub badge on the top-3 by first-sub score within each position group, plus a late-game impact rating where club per-90 stats are available.

Goalkeepers (2)

PlayerStat

Sergio Rochet#1Jersey-boosted↘Internacional★ Likely first sub

35c—0.78

Santiago Mele#12Jersey-boostedMonterrey★ Likely first sub

8c—0.69

Defenders (5)

PlayerStat

Ronald Araújo#4Jersey-boostedBarcelona★ Likely first subimpact 25/100

27c49tackles0.59

Joaquín PiquerezRating-drivenPalmeiras★ Likely first sub

19c—0.81

Guillermo Varela#13Jersey-boostedFlamengo

28c—0.35

Santiago Bueno#22Rating-driven↗Wolverhampton Wanderers★ Likely first subimpact 10/100

8c22tackles0.71

José Luis Rodríguez#24Rating-drivenVasco da Gama

5c—0.49

Midfielders (5)

PlayerStat

Manuel Ugarte#5Jersey-boosted→Manchester United★ Likely first subimpact 10/100

36c0assists0.62

Maximiliano Araújo#20Sporting CP★ Likely first sub

28c9assists0.77

Emiliano Martínez#8Jersey-boostedPalmeiras

10c0assists0.58

Juan Manuel Sanabria#6Jersey-boostedReal Salt Lake★ Likely first sub

5c0assists0.68

Nicolás Fonseca#25Rating-drivenOviedoimpact 3/100

7c0assists0.29

Forwards (3)

PlayerStat

Facundo Torres#21Rating-drivenAustin FC★ Likely first sub

23c2goals0.73

Federico Viñas#19Jersey-boostedOviedo★ Likely first subimpact 40/100

11c2goals0.37

Agustín Álvarez#26Rating-drivenMonza★ Likely first sub

6c1goals0.52

▸How to read this squad— 4 columns explained

Pos: Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
Caps: Senior international appearances. Used by the model as a recency-weighted signal of how often the manager calls the player up.
Stat: Position-aware stat: career international goals for forwards; career international assists for midfielders (Transfermarkt); latest available Big-5 club season's total tackles for defenders (FBref); latest available Big-5 club season's save percentage for goalkeepers (FBref). Em-dash when no data is joined — most often for defenders and keepers at non-Big-5 clubs.
Rating: Composite rating (Model #4) — combines recent caps + goals, recent club xG and xAG per 90, position-relative quality, and call-up priors. Higher = the model thinks the player is more likely to start. Typically 0.9 (depth) to 2.5 (elite).

★ Likely first sub — the bench player the model rates most likely to be the first substitute for their position. Computed from a first-sub score (cap-recency + impact rating); ties broken by Rating.

Selection driver — coloured chips show which input dominates a player's selection score. Caps-driven = selected mainly on international experience. Rating-driven = selected mainly on club performance quality. Jersey-boosted = jersey number from a recent squad snapshot lifted their score. Goals-driven = international goal record was the decisive factor. No chip when the score is a balanced blend.

Squad cohesion

Projected XI · club overlap

Low coverage: 6/11 of the projected XI have club-minutes rows in our ratings table. Numbers below are structurally suppressed and should be read alongside the resolved count, not in isolation.

Pairwise club minutes: 0.00%; Share of the 55-pair × 3000-minute ceiling. Higher = more of the XI plays together at club level.

Club concentration: 0.167; How concentrated the XI is across clubs. 0.091 = 11 different clubs · 1.000 = all the same club.

Top-3 clubs share: 50%; 3 of 6 play for the three most common clubs in the XI.

Top clubs in projected XI

Sassuolo1
Barcelona1
Cagliari1

Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →

Squad depth

Projected XI · replaceability

Most irreplaceable starters

Nicolás de la CruzCentral midfieldLikely cover: no natural backupreplacement-level CM ~0.280.53gap to repl.
Darwin NúñezStrikerLikely cover: Agustín Álvarez · 0.52Monza0.46gap to repl.
Federico ValverdeCentral midfieldLikely cover: no natural backupreplacement-level CM ~0.280.45gap to repl.

Gap to repl. = how far this nation's rating at the position falls from the starter to his likely in-squad replacement (named above). Larger = harder to replace.

Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →

Group schedule

Group-stage schedule

MD	Date	Opponent	Venue
1	Jun 15, 2026	Saudi Arabia	Miami Gardens, United States
2	Jun 21, 2026	Cape Verde	Miami Gardens, United States
3	Jun 26, 2026	Spain	Zapopan, Mexico

Head-to-head matchups

Uruguay projected scorers →

Storylines

Updated 28 days ago

Veteran #1Fernando Muslera

39 at kickoff with 134 caps — last World Cup for the #1.

Top scorerDarwin Núñez

Model's top anytime-scorer for the team — 22% probability of scoring at least once, rank #23 of all players.

Heat schedule

2 group-stage matches at venues averaging 26°C+ — Miami, Miami (peak 27.0°C average).

Carries load

Darwin Núñez carries the attack at 22% to score — next-best Brian Rodríguez at 11%.

Form & track record

Video analysis: Uruguay

Performance data from official highlights analysis across 2 matches. 4 players observed, 6 events tracked.

Cabo Verde Player #13Standout performer

Scored two crucial equalizing goals, demonstrating aerial prowess and composure to lead his team's comeback.

2 goals

Goals

Shots

Saves

Fouls won

Cards

Rating spread(4 ratings)

8+ (2)7 (1)6 (1)5- (0)

Match by match

Player ratings (4)

Cabo Verde Player #131 app · 2 events

2 goals

▼

Scored two crucial equalizing goals, demonstrating aerial prowess and composure to lead his team's comeback.

gs-0409Scored two crucial equalizing goals, demonstrating aerial prowess and composure to lead his team's comeback.

Maxi Araújo1 app

▼

Scored the crucial equalizer and was a persistent threat in attack for Uruguay.

gs-0168Scored the crucial equalizer and was a persistent threat in attack for Uruguay.

Fernando Muslera1 app · 2 events

2 saves

▼

Made a crucial save to prevent Saudi Arabia from scoring earlier in the first half.

gs-0167Made a crucial save to prevent Saudi Arabia from scoring earlier in the first half.

Federico Valverde1 app · 2 events

1 shot (1 on target)

▼

Contributed to Uruguay's attack with a late shot but also committed a foul.

gs-0166Contributed to Uruguay's attack with a late shot but also committed a foul.

Match observations

gs-016Saudi Arabia secured an early lead from a set-piece, showcasing their effectiveness in dead-ball situations.
gs-016Uruguay dominated the second half, applying sustained pressure and creating numerous scoring opportunities.
gs-016The Saudi Arabia goalkeeper was instrumental in earning a point for his team, making several impressive saves against Uruguay's relentless attacks.
gs-040The match was an exciting, high-scoring contest between Uruguay and Cabo Verde, featuring dramatic swings in momentum.
gs-040Both teams showed strong attacking intent, leading to multiple goals and an engaging spectacle for the fans.
gs-040The atmosphere in the stadium was vibrant, with fans reacting enthusiastically to each goal scored.

Statistical profile

Balanced

Attack

Attack rating0.9614th/48

Shots per match12.118th/48

Chance quality0.12620th/48

Defence

Defence rating1.0140th/48

Goalkeeper rating0.5419th/48

GK: Sergio Rochet

Set pieces

Set-piece goal share15.4%13th/48

Penalty conversion73.3%18th/48

Penalty save rate28.9%4th/48

Style

Possession49.3%26th/48

Press intensity18.012th/48

Directness7.65th/48

Crossing volume402.727th/48

Long ball volume34.721st/48

Build-up length5.732nd/48

Squad

Avg. minutes per starter1,50528th/48

Club familiarity0.00047th/48

Workload class: light

Attack and defence ratings from the model; style metrics from recent international matches; penalty rates via Bayesian estimation; goalkeeper rating from shot-prevention data. Rank is out of 48 tournament teams.

Where goals come from

Phase of play · scored & conceded

Scored19 goals · 181 shots

Conceded9 goals · 136 shots

Open play
Set piece
Counter
Penalty

Share of goals by how the chance began, across 14 matches (CopaAmerica2024,WC2018,WC2022). Shoot-out kicks are excluded. Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →

Group-stage matchups

vs Saudi Arabia2026-06-15

Win59.7%

Draw28.0%

Loss12.3%

Expected goals for1.57

Expected goals against0.49

Likeliest score0-1 (19.3%)

Both teams score31.5%

Clean sheet61.0%

Full fixture analysis →

vs Cape Verde2026-06-21

Win62.1%

Draw27.0%

Loss10.9%

Expected goals for1.79

Expected goals against0.50

Likeliest score0-1 (17.4%)

Both teams score33.6%

Clean sheet60.4%

Full fixture analysis →

vs Spain2026-06-26

Win19.0%

Draw28.2%

Loss52.8%

Expected goals for0.88

Expected goals against1.49

Likeliest score1-0 (13.2%)

Both teams score46.1%

Clean sheet22.7%

Full fixture analysis →

Probabilities from the calibrated ensemble model. xG from the Dixon–Coles fit. See each fixture page for full analysis.

Rating & probability history

12 snapshots · 2026-05-22 → 2026-06-24

Each point is one model build. The shaded band is the bootstrap 90% credible interval around the tournament-winner probability.

Recent form (10 matches)

Record4W · 4D · 2L

Goals10–9

Form

Date	Opponent	Score	Result	Competition
2026-03-31	NAlgeria	0–0	D	Friendly
2026-03-27	AEngland	1–1	D	Friendly
2025-11-18	AUnited States	1–5	L	Friendly
2025-11-15	AMexico	0–0	D	Friendly
2025-10-13	NUzbekistan	2–1	W	Friendly
2025-10-10	NDominican Republic	1–0	W	Friendly
2025-09-09	AChile	0–0	D	FIFA World Cup qualification
2025-09-04	HPeru	3–0	W	FIFA World Cup qualification
2025-06-10	HVenezuela	2–0	W	FIFA World Cup qualification
2025-06-05	AParaguay	0–2	L	FIFA World Cup qualification

martj42 international results (CC0) · last 10 matches · ~2 years.

Head-to-head vs group opponents

Opponent	Meetings	W-D-L	Last meeting
Spain	10	0-5-5	2013 — Loss (1–2) · Confederations Cup
Saudi Arabia	4	1-2-1	2026 — Draw (1–1) · FIFA World Cup
Cape Verde	1	0-1-0	2026 — Draw (2–2) · FIFA World Cup

All meetings via the martj42 international results dataset.

Major tournaments — most recent appearance

Tournament	Year	Finish	W-D-L	Since then
Copa América	2024	3rd place	3-2-1	Same head coach (Marcelo Bielsa) since 2023 29/36 of current pool (81%) were active that year
FIFA World Cup	2022	Group stage	1-1-1	New head coach since then — now Marcelo Bielsa (appointed 2023) 14/36 of current pool (39%) were active that year

Source: FIFA archives. Penalty outcomes resolved to W/L.

Most similar past team-tournaments

Closest comparable teams from past major tournaments (1990-2024), by squad strength, group draw, and recent form. Shown for context, not a prediction.

Colombia · Copa América 2021
Finished third
Comparable pre-tournament strength (Elo 1996) and group draw.
Argentina · Copa América 2007
Finished runner-up
Argentina · World Cup 2010
Exited at the quarter-final

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WC2026 results

Tournament outlook

Analysis

How they play

Path to success

What they must execute

Controversial take

Key numbers

How they play

Group H finish · Uruguay?

Stage progression · Uruguay?

Likely knockout path · Uruguay

The squad

Confirmed squad?

Squad cohesion

Top clubs in projected XI

Squad depth

Most irreplaceable starters

Group schedule

Group-stage schedule

Head-to-head matchups

Storylines

Form & track record

Video analysis: Uruguay

Match by match

Player ratings (4)

Match observations

Statistical profile

Attack

Defence

Set pieces

Style

Squad

Where goals come from

Group-stage matchups

Rating & probability history

Recent form (10 matches)

Head-to-head vs group opponents

Major tournaments — most recent appearance

Most similar past team-tournaments

See all 104 match forecasts

Group H finish · Uruguay

Stage progression · Uruguay

Confirmed squad