South Africa
Snapshot · 2026-06-24Model 1.0.0CAF·Group A·FIFA #61
9 of 26 predicted-squad players play their club football for Mamelodi Sundowns — a single-club spine on the international side.
- Rival
- Mexico (#15)
- Key
- Evidence Makgopa (FW)
Final squad announced · South Africa · 2026-05-28
Source: BBC Sport — Football ↗WC2026 results
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 11 | Mexico | 0–2 | L | Mexico City |
| Jun 18 | Czech Republic | 1–1 | D | Atlanta |
Tournament outlook
Analysis
South Africa carry a <0.1% probability of winning the tournament (41st of 48). Drawn in Group A alongside Mexico, South Korea, Czech Republic, they are projected at 22.9% to advance to the knockout stage.
How they play
South Africa under Hugo Broos play a balanced game with 52% possession. They apply moderate pressing intensity (PPDA 23.9). They favour high-quality chances (xG/shot 0.189, among the best in the field).
Path to success
In Group A alongside Mexico, South Korea, Czech Republic, South Africa are projected at 22.9% to advance from the group stage. A competitive group-stage showing — taking points off higher-ranked opponents — would mark a successful campaign. The expanded 48-team format gives smaller federations more runway, and upsets in the group stage are a fixture of every World Cup.
What they must execute
South Africa will need to leverage their strengths while managing the physical demands of a tournament spread across three host countries.
Controversial take
The model and FIFA rankings tell different stories for South Africa. Model rates them #44 by tournament-winner probability — 17 places higher than FIFA #61.
Key numbers
How they play
Style vs the 48-team field
Balanced · style profile from 7 recent matches
What to watch: a slower tempo, holding and recycling possession.
Percentiles position South Africa against the 48-team field. Higher means more of that trait, not better or worse. Press is inverted (lower PPDA = higher press); width uses crossing rate as a proxy; tempo is open-play passes per minute of possession. Descriptive style analytics; does not feed the published probabilities.
Group A finish · South Africa
Monte Carlo, 100,000 simsTop two advance to the round of 32; best 8 of 12 third-placed teams also qualify.
- 3.2%1st (group winner)Advances to R32
- 11.4%2nd (runner-up)Advances to R32
- 26.0%3rdAdvances only if among the best 8 of 12 third-placed teams
- 59.4%4thEliminated
Stage progression · South Africa
, 100,000 sims- 29.8%AdvAdvance from group
- 8.4%R16Round of 16
- 2.1%QFQuarter-final
- 0.4%SFSemi-final
- 0.1%FFinal
- <0.1%WinWin the tournament
Likely knockout path · South Africa
Monte Carlo, 10,000 simsThe squad
Confirmed squad
Model-predicted · snapshot 2026-05-28Roster confirmed by the federation's official squad announcement. The XI/bench split below is the model's composite-rating ordering, not the head coach's lineup.
★ likely first sub badge on the top-3 by first-sub score within each position group, plus a late-game impact rating where club per-90 stats are available.
▸How to read this squad— 4 columns explained
- Pos
- Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
- Caps
- Senior international appearances. Used by the model as a recency-weighted signal of how often the manager calls the player up.
- Stat
- Position-aware stat: career international goals for forwards; career international assists for midfielders (Transfermarkt); latest available Big-5 club season's total tackles for defenders (FBref); latest available Big-5 club season's save percentage for goalkeepers (FBref). Em-dash when no data is joined — most often for defenders and keepers at non-Big-5 clubs.
- Rating
- Composite rating (Model #4) — combines recent caps + goals, recent club xG and xAG per 90, position-relative quality, and call-up priors. Higher = the model thinks the player is more likely to start. Typically 0.9 (depth) to 2.5 (elite).
Selection driver — coloured chips show which input dominates a player's selection score. Caps-driven = selected mainly on international experience. Rating-driven = selected mainly on club performance quality. Jersey-boosted = jersey number from a recent squad snapshot lifted their score. Goals-driven = international goal record was the decisive factor. No chip when the score is a balanced blend.
Squad cohesion
Projected XI · club overlap
Low coverage: 1/11 of the projected XI have club-minutes rows in our ratings table. Numbers below are structurally suppressed and should be read alongside the resolved count, not in isolation.
- Pairwise club minutes
- 0.00%
- Share of the 55-pair × 3000-minute ceiling. Higher = more of the XI plays together at club level.
- Club concentration
- 1.000
- How concentrated the XI is across clubs. 0.091 = 11 different clubs · 1.000 = all the same club.
- Top-3 clubs share
- 100%
- 1 of 1 play for the three most common clubs in the XI.
Top clubs in projected XI
- Burnley1
Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Squad depth
Projected XI · replaceability
Most irreplaceable starters
- Nkosinathi SibisiCentre-backLikely cover: Mbekezeli Mbokazi · 0.00Chicago Fire0.41gap to repl.
- Aubrey ModibaFull-backLikely cover: Thabang Matuludi · 0.18Polokwane City0.28gap to repl.
- Khuliso MudauFull-backLikely cover: Thabang Matuludi · 0.18Polokwane City0.24gap to repl.
Gap to repl. = how far this nation's rating at the position falls from the starter to his likely in-squad replacement (named above). Larger = harder to replace.
Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Group schedule
Group-stage schedule
| MD | Date | Opponent | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jun 11, 2026 | Mexico | Mexico City, Mexico |
| 2 | Jun 18, 2026 | Czech Republic | Atlanta, United States |
| 3 | Jun 24, 2026 | South Korea | Guadalupe, Mexico |
Head-to-head matchups
Storylines
Storylines
Updated 28 days ago9 of 26 predicted-squad players play their club football for Mamelodi Sundowns — a single-club spine on the international side.
Model rates them #44 by tournament-winner probability — 17 places higher than FIFA #61.
Only 1 of 26 predicted-squad players played in a top-5 European league last season — the rest play home or in non-top-5 leagues.
Travels 41,892 km across 3 venues in the group stage — one of the longest itineraries in the field.
Form & track record
Video analysis: South Africa
Performance data from official highlights analysis across 2 matches. 3 players observed, 2 events tracked.
Made multiple crucial saves throughout the match, keeping his team in the game and preserving the lead.
Match by match
Player ratings (3)
9Itumeleng Khune1 app9▼
Made multiple crucial saves throughout the match, keeping his team in the game and preserving the lead.
8Lyle Foster1 app · 1 events1 goal8▼
Scored the crucial opening goal with clinical finishing, giving his team the lead.
7Modiba1 app · 1 events1 shot (1 on target)7▼
Registered South Africa's only notable shot on target with a long-range effort that required a save from the Mexico goalkeeper.
Match observations
- gs-001The match between Mexico and South Africa was preceded by an elaborate opening ceremony, featuring national flags and mascots on the pitch.
- gs-001The stadium was filled with enthusiastic supporters, creating a vibrant atmosphere with confetti falling throughout the event.
- gs-001Mexico secured a 2-0 victory over South Africa, with goals registered in the 8th and 67th minutes.
- gs-026The atmosphere among South African fans was vibrant and enthusiastic, with supporters singing, dancing, and waving flags. Despite the 1-1 draw against Czechia, a strong sense of national pride and optimism was evident. Fans expressed excitement about the experience and hope for improved future performances. The collective celebration highlighted the joy of supporting their team, regardless of the outcome.
- gs-026The match began with an electrifying atmosphere at the Atlanta Stadium, marking day one of the FIFA World Cup 2026.
- gs-026Both teams started cautiously, feeling each other out, but the Czech Republic showed early intent with several attacking forays.
Statistical profile
BalancedAttack
Defence
GK: Ronwen Williams
Set pieces
Style
Squad
Workload class: light
Attack and defence ratings from the model; style metrics from recent international matches; penalty rates via Bayesian estimation; goalkeeper rating from shot-prevention data. Rank is out of 48 tournament teams.
Where goals come from
Phase of play · scored & conceded
- Open play
- Set piece
- Counter
- Penalty
Share of goals by how the chance began, across 7 matches (AFCON2023). Shoot-out kicks are excluded. Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Group-stage matchups
Probabilities from the calibrated ensemble model. xG from the Dixon–Coles fit. See each fixture page for full analysis.
Rating & probability history
12 snapshots · 2026-05-22 → 2026-06-24South Africa trajectory: 12 snapshots between 2026-05-22 and 2026-06-24 (33 days). Elo moved from 1524.0 to 1524.0 (0). Tournament-winner probability moved from 0.0% to <0.1% (0pp).
Each point is one model build. The shaded band is the bootstrap 90% credible interval around the tournament-winner probability.
Recent form (10 matches)
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | HPanama | 1–2 | L | Friendly |
| 2026-03-27 | HPanama | 1–1 | D | Friendly |
| 2026-01-04 | NCameroon | 1–2 | L | African Cup of Nations |
| 2025-12-29 | NZimbabwe | 3–2 | W | African Cup of Nations |
| 2025-12-26 | NEgypt | 0–1 | L | African Cup of Nations |
| 2025-12-22 | NAngola | 2–1 | W | African Cup of Nations |
| 2025-11-15 | HZambia | 3–1 | W | Friendly |
| 2025-10-14 | HRwanda | 3–0 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-10-10 | HZimbabwe | 0–0 | D | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-09-09 | HNigeria | 1–1 | D | FIFA World Cup qualification |
martj42 international results (CC0) · last 10 matches · ~2 years.
Head-to-head vs group opponents
| Opponent | Meetings | W-D-L | Last meeting |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mexico | 5 | 1-1-3 | 2026 — Loss (0–2) · FIFA World Cup |
| Czech Republic | 2 | 0-2-0 | 2026 — Draw (1–1) · FIFA World Cup |
| South Korea | 0 | — | No prior meetings |
All meetings via the martj42 international results dataset.
Major tournaments — most recent appearance
| Tournament | Year | Finish | W-D-L | Since then |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| African Cup of Nations | 2026 | 1 matches | 0-0-1 |
|
| FIFA World Cup | 2010 | Group stage | 1-1-1 |
|
| Gold Cup | 2005 | Quarter-finals | 1-3-0 |
|
Source: FIFA archives. Penalty outcomes resolved to W/L.
Most similar past team-tournaments
Closest comparable teams from past major tournaments (1990-2024), by squad strength, group draw, and recent form. Shown for context, not a prediction.
Togo · Afcon 2017
Exited at the group stage
Comparable pre-tournament strength (Elo 1496) and group draw.
Togo · Afcon 2013
Exited at the quarter-final
Ghana · World Cup 2022
Exited at the group stage
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