Pre-match projection. Probabilities are frozen approximately 6 hours before kickoff to provide a stable pre-match reference.

Mexico vs South Africa

2026 FIFA World Cup·Group A·Head-to-head

Snapshot · 2026-05-28

All-time head-to-head

Meetings
4
Mexico W-D-L
2-1-1
Last meeting
2010Draw (11)

All-time record from Mexico's perspective. Counts every senior international meeting (friendlies and tournaments) in the martj42 dataset; penalty-shootout outcomes resolve knockout draws.

Model forecast

59.5%
Draw
27.2%

The model's win, draw and win probabilities for this group-stage meeting. Full forecast — expected goals, scoreline distribution, and per-player scoring →

Frequently asked

What is the head-to-head record between Mexico and South Africa?
Mexico and South Africa have met 4 times. From Mexico's perspective the all-time record is 2 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss. Their most recent meeting was a 2010 draw (1–1) at the FIFA World Cup.
What does the model predict for Mexico vs South Africa?
OnThePitch's model rates Mexico at 59% to win, with a 27% chance of a draw and 13% for South Africa.
When do Mexico and South Africa play at the 2026 World Cup?
They meet in the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup in Group A. Venue and kick-off details appear on the match page once confirmed.

Other Group A matchups

How this is computed. Win/draw/ win probabilities come from a calibrated Dixon-Coles ensemble. See methodology.