Spain

Snapshot · 2026-06-24Model 1.0.0

UEFA·Group H·FIFA #1

Top-4 contender

Possession-dominant side led by Ferran Torres, with Unai Simón in goal and a Barcelona-heavy spine.

Recent formation: 4-3-3 (4 of 4)

Rival
Uruguay (#16)
Key
Mikel Oyarzabal (FW)
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Final squad announced · Spain · 2026-06-01

Source: Footy Headlines ↗

WC2026 results

Record1W · 1D · 0L
Goals4:0 (+4)
Form
DateOpponentScoreResultVenue
Jun 15Cape Verde0–0DAtlanta
Jun 21Saudi Arabia4–0WAtlanta
1

Tournament outlook

Analysis

Spain are among the tournament frontrunners — the model rates them at 16.7%, 2nd in the field. Watch for Lamine Yamal — 18 at kickoff — 25 caps — projected on the bench, the squad's youngest pick. Drawn in Group H alongside Uruguay, Saudi Arabia, Cape Verde, they are projected at 99.7% to advance to the knockout stage.

How they play

Spain under Luis de la Fuente play a possession dominant game, holding 68% of the ball — among the highest in the tournament field. Their likely shape is a 4-3-3. They press intensely (PPDA 15.7, top quartile (4th of 40)) and build patiently through midfield with 10.0 passes per attacking sequence. They generate a high volume of shots (15.3 per 90).

Path to success

Their route begins in Group H with Uruguay, Saudi Arabia, Cape Verde, where the model projects a 77.5% chance of finishing top and 99.7% of advancing. From there the projected knockout path runs: round of 32 (72.7%), quarter-finals (51.0%), semi-finals (39.2%), the final (26.9%). Maintaining form across seven matches in North American conditions will test squad depth — no team has won consecutive World Cups since Brazil in 1962.

What they must execute

To succeed, Spain must control tempo and territory in midfield — their possession-dominant approach depends on dictating the rhythm of each match.

Controversial take

The model rates Spain significantly higher than their FIFA ranking implies — a gap of 8.6 percentage points. This reflects the model's assessment of underlying squad quality and recent form that the ranking system may lag behind.

Key numbers

16.7%Win probability2nd in field, +8.6pp vs FIFA rank
2165Elo ratingRanked 1st globally
4-3-3Predicted formationMost-used shape in recent tournaments
68%Possession sharehighest in the field
49.1%Tournament goal probability — Mikel OyarzabalTop projected scorer in the squad (FW)
4.4 yearsManager tenureLuis de la Fuente

How they play

Style vs the 48-team field

Possession-dominant · style profile from 21 recent matches

Press
15.7
91
Build-up
10
99
Directness
3.1
1
Width (proxy)
700.1
99
Tempo
10.6
99
Set-piece reliance
17.4
86

What to watch: patient, multi-pass build-up.

Percentiles position Spain against the 48-team field. Higher means more of that trait, not better or worse. Press is inverted (lower PPDA = higher press); width uses crossing rate as a proxy; tempo is open-play passes per minute of possession. Descriptive style analytics; does not feed the published probabilities.

Group H finish · Spain

Monte Carlo, 100,000 sims

Top two advance to the round of 32; best 8 of 12 third-placed teams also qualify.

  • 1st (group winner)
    Advances to R32
    74.6%
  • 2nd (runner-up)
    Advances to R32
    21.9%
  • 3rd
    Advances only if among the best 8 of 12 third-placed teams
    3.1%
  • 4th
    Eliminated
    0.4%

Stage progression · Spain

, 100,000 sims
  1. 99.2%AdvAdvance from group
  2. 69.8%R16Round of 16
  3. 48.1%QFQuarter-final
  4. 35.8%SFSemi-final
  5. 24.2%FFinal
  6. 15.0%WinWin the tournament

Likely knockout path · Spain

Monte Carlo, 10,000 sims

Most frequent opponents per round, conditional on reaching it.

R32

Round of 32

Argentina31%
Austria30%
Algeria25%

R16

Round of 16

Croatia19%
Colombia19%
Portugal18%

QF

Quarter-final

Belgium20%
Iran7%
Turkey6%

SF

Semi-final

France18%
Germany12%
Brazil11%

F

Final

Argentina22%
Brazil11%
Portugal8%
2

The squad

Confirmed squad

Model-predicted · snapshot 2026-05-28

Roster confirmed by the federation's official squad announcement. The XI/bench split below is the model's composite-rating ordering, not the head coach's lineup.

Goalkeepers (1)
PlayerStat
GK
Unai SimónCaps-driven↗Athletic Bilbao
57c57save%0.93
Defenders (4)
PlayerStat
DF
Aymeric LaporteCaps-driven↘Athletic Bilbao
44c31tackles0.56
DF
Marc CucurellaRating-driven→Chelsea
23c89tackles0.88
DF
Pedro PorroRating-driven→Tottenham Hotspur
16c50tackles0.92
DF
Eric GarcíaRating-driven↗Barcelona
19c29tackles0.83
Midfielders (3)
PlayerStat
MF
Dani Olmo↗Barcelona
48c10assists0.91
MF
RodriCaps-driven↘Manchester City
61c2assists0.66
MF
Mikel Merino↗Arsenal
41c5assists0.95
Forwards (3)
PlayerStat
FW
Ferran TorresGoals-driven↗Barcelona
55c23goals0.91
FW
Mikel OyarzabalGoals-driven↗Real Sociedad
52c24goals0.71
FW
Lamine YamalRating-driven↗Barcelona
25c6goals0.93
Bench

★ likely first sub badge on the top-3 by first-sub score within each position group, plus a late-game impact rating where club per-90 stats are available.

Goalkeepers (2)
PlayerStat
GK
David RayaRating-driven↗Arsenal★ Likely first sub
12c72save%0.94
GK
Joan GarciaRating-driven↘Barcelona★ Likely first sub
1c—0.50
Defenders (4)
PlayerStat
DF
Álex GrimaldoRating-driven→Bayer Leverkusen★ Likely first subimpact 52/100
12c—0.93
DF
Marcos LlorenteRating-driven↘Atlético Madrid★ Likely first subimpact 26/100
23c52tackles0.64
DF
Pau CubarsíRating-driven↗Barcelona★ Likely first subimpact 3/100
11c—0.83
DF
Marc PubillAtlético Madrid
0c—0.00
Midfielders (4)
PlayerStat
MF
Pedri↗Barcelona★ Likely first subimpact 35/100
40c4assists0.98
MF
Fabián RuizParis Saint-Germain★ Likely first sub
41c12assists0.91
MF
GaviRating-drivenBarcelona★ Likely first subimpact 11/100
28c0assists0.81
MF
Martín ZubimendiCaps-driven→Arsenalimpact 12/100
25c1assists0.39
Forwards (5)
PlayerStat
FW
Yéremy PinoRating-drivenCrystal Palace★ Likely first sub
21c4goals0.86
FW
Nico Williams→Athletic Bilbao★ Likely first subimpact 45/100
30c6goals0.52
FW
Borja IglesiasRating-driven→Celta Vigo★ Likely first subimpact 49/100
6c0goals0.65
FW
Álex Baena↘Atlético Madridimpact 47/100
15c2goals0.37
FW
Víctor MuñozCaps-drivenOsasuna
2c1goals0.00
▸How to read this squad— 4 columns explained
Pos
Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
Caps
Senior international appearances. Used by the model as a recency-weighted signal of how often the manager calls the player up.
Stat
Position-aware stat: career international goals for forwards; career international assists for midfielders (Transfermarkt); latest available Big-5 club season's total tackles for defenders (FBref); latest available Big-5 club season's save percentage for goalkeepers (FBref). Em-dash when no data is joined — most often for defenders and keepers at non-Big-5 clubs.
Rating
Composite rating (Model #4) — combines recent caps + goals, recent club xG and xAG per 90, position-relative quality, and call-up priors. Higher = the model thinks the player is more likely to start. Typically 0.9 (depth) to 2.5 (elite).
★ Likely first sub — the bench player the model rates most likely to be the first substitute for their position. Computed from a first-sub score (cap-recency + impact rating); ties broken by Rating.

Selection driver — coloured chips show which input dominates a player's selection score. Caps-driven = selected mainly on international experience. Rating-driven = selected mainly on club performance quality. Jersey-boosted = jersey number from a recent squad snapshot lifted their score. Goals-driven = international goal record was the decisive factor. No chip when the score is a balanced blend.

Squad cohesion

Projected XI · club overlap

Pairwise club minutes
1.83%
Share of the 55-pair × 3000-minute ceiling. Higher = more of the XI plays together at club level.
Club concentration
0.140
How concentrated the XI is across clubs. 0.091 = 11 different clubs · 1.000 = all the same club.
Top-3 clubs share
50%
5 of 10 play for the three most common clubs in the XI.

Top clubs in projected XI

  • Manchester City2
  • Barcelona2
  • Athletic Club1

Most-connected club pair

Marcos Llorente + Álvaro Morata — Atletico Madrid, 2023-24 · 1,924 shared minutes

Show next 2
  • Dani Olmo + Ferran Torres — Barcelona, 2024-25 · 1,093 min
  • Aymeric Laporte + Rodri — Manchester City, 2023-24 · 6 min

Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →

Squad depth

Projected XI · replaceability

Most irreplaceable starters

  1. Dani OlmoAttacking midfieldLikely cover: no natural backupreplacement-level AM ~0.400.51gap to repl.
  2. RodriDefensive midfieldLikely cover: Martín Zubimendi · 0.39Arsenal0.27gap to repl.
  3. Ferran TorresStrikerLikely cover: Borja Iglesias · 0.65Celta Vigo0.26gap to repl.

Gap to repl. = how far this nation's rating at the position falls from the starter to his likely in-squad replacement (named above). Larger = harder to replace.

Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →

3

Group schedule

Group-stage schedule

MDDateOpponentVenue
1Jun 15, 2026Cape VerdeAtlanta, United States
2Jun 21, 2026Saudi ArabiaAtlanta, United States
3Jun 26, 2026UruguayZapopan, Mexico

Head-to-head matchups

Spain projected scorers →

4

Storylines

Storylines

Updated 28 days ago
Club core

8 of 26 predicted-squad players play their club football for Barcelona — a single-club spine on the international side.

Club xG

Squad averages 1.85 xG per match across club football last season — #3 of 20 in the field for attacking pedigree from each player's domestic side (23 of 26 players matched to a known club).

Teen starterLamine Yamal

18 at kickoff — 25 caps — projected on the bench, the squad's youngest pick.

Top scorerFerran Torres

Model's top anytime-scorer for the team — 32% probability of scoring at least once, rank #3 of all players.

5

Form & track record

Video analysis: Spain

Performance data from official highlights analysis across 2 matches. 27 players observed, 30 events tracked.

8
Unai SimónStandout performer

As goalkeeper for the winning team, he maintained a clean sheet in a 4-0 victory.

0
Goals
18
Shots
0
Fouls won
0
Cards
7
Headers
Rating spread(35 ratings)
8+ (3)7 (25)6 (6)5- (1)

Match by match

gs-015
18 shots
gs-039

Player ratings (27)

8
Unai Simón1 app
8
▼

As goalkeeper for the winning team, he maintained a clean sheet in a 4-0 victory.

gs-0398As goalkeeper for the winning team, he maintained a clean sheet in a 4-0 victory.
8
David Raya1 app
8
▼

As goalkeeper for the winning team, he maintained a clean sheet in a 4-0 victory.

gs-0398As goalkeeper for the winning team, he maintained a clean sheet in a 4-0 victory.
8
Joan Garcia1 app
8
▼

As goalkeeper for the winning team, he maintained a clean sheet in a 4-0 victory.

gs-0398As goalkeeper for the winning team, he maintained a clean sheet in a 4-0 victory.
7
Aymeric Laporte2 apps · 5 events
3 shots (2 on target)2 headers
77
▼

Was a threat from set-pieces and long-range, and maintained defensive solidity.

gs-0157Was a threat from set-pieces and long-range, and maintained defensive solidity.
gs-0397Contributed to Spain's dominant 4-0 victory and clean sheet.
7
Marc Cucurella2 apps · 4 events
1 shot (1 on target)1 header
77
▼

Was a constant threat down the left flank, delivering crosses and taking a shot on goal.

gs-0157Was a constant threat down the left flank, delivering crosses and taking a shot on goal.
gs-0397Contributed to Spain's dominant 4-0 victory.
7
Rodri1 app
7
▼

Contributed to Spain's dominant 4-0 victory.

gs-0397Contributed to Spain's dominant 4-0 victory.
7
Pedri1 app
7
▼

Contributed to Spain's dominant 4-0 victory.

gs-0397Contributed to Spain's dominant 4-0 victory.
7
Gavi1 app
7
▼

Contributed to Spain's dominant 4-0 victory.

gs-0397Contributed to Spain's dominant 4-0 victory.
7
Yéremy Pino1 app
7
▼

Contributed to Spain's dominant 4-0 victory.

gs-0397Contributed to Spain's dominant 4-0 victory.
7
Nico Williams1 app
7
▼

Contributed to Spain's dominant 4-0 victory.

gs-0397Contributed to Spain's dominant 4-0 victory.
7
Pedro Porro1 app
7
▼

Contributed to Spain's dominant 4-0 victory.

gs-0397Contributed to Spain's dominant 4-0 victory.
7
Eric García1 app
7
▼

Contributed to Spain's dominant 4-0 victory and clean sheet.

gs-0397Contributed to Spain's dominant 4-0 victory and clean sheet.
7
Álex Grimaldo1 app
7
▼

Contributed to Spain's dominant 4-0 victory.

gs-0397Contributed to Spain's dominant 4-0 victory.
7
Lamine Yamal1 app
7
▼

Contributed to Spain's dominant 4-0 victory.

gs-0397Contributed to Spain's dominant 4-0 victory.
7
Pau Cubarsí1 app
7
▼

Contributed to Spain's dominant 4-0 victory and clean sheet.

gs-0397Contributed to Spain's dominant 4-0 victory and clean sheet.
7
Martín Zubimendi1 app
7
▼

Contributed to Spain's dominant 4-0 victory.

gs-0397Contributed to Spain's dominant 4-0 victory.
7
Borja Iglesias1 app
7
▼

Contributed to Spain's dominant 4-0 victory.

gs-0397Contributed to Spain's dominant 4-0 victory.
7
Marc Pubill1 app
7
▼

Contributed to Spain's dominant 4-0 victory.

gs-0397Contributed to Spain's dominant 4-0 victory.
7
Álex Baena1 app
7
▼

Contributed to Spain's dominant 4-0 victory.

gs-0397Contributed to Spain's dominant 4-0 victory.
7
Víctor Muñoz1 app
7
▼

Contributed to Spain's dominant 4-0 victory.

gs-0397Contributed to Spain's dominant 4-0 victory.
6.5
Ferran Torres2 apps · 5 events
4 shots (3 on target)1 header
67
▼

Created several scoring opportunities and hit the woodwork but failed to convert any chances.

gs-0156Created several scoring opportunities and hit the woodwork but failed to convert any chances.
gs-0397Contributed to Spain's dominant 4-0 victory.
6.5
Fabián Ruiz2 apps · 2 events
2 shots
67
▼

Attempted two shots but failed to hit the target, with limited other notable contributions.

gs-0156Attempted two shots but failed to hit the target, with limited other notable contributions.
gs-0397Contributed to Spain's dominant 4-0 victory.
6.5
Marcos Llorente2 apps · 1 events
67
▼

Provided a good cross that led to a scoring opportunity for a teammate.

gs-0156Provided a good cross that led to a scoring opportunity for a teammate.
gs-0397Contributed to Spain's dominant 4-0 victory.
6.5
Mikel Merino2 apps · 1 events
1 shot
67
▼

Had a shot on goal that was blocked, but otherwise had limited notable actions.

gs-0156Had a shot on goal that was blocked, but otherwise had limited notable actions.
gs-0397Contributed to Spain's dominant 4-0 victory.
6.5
Dani Olmo2 apps · 1 events
67
▼

Created a late scoring chance for a teammate through his movement.

gs-0156Created a late scoring chance for a teammate through his movement.
gs-0397Contributed to Spain's dominant 4-0 victory.
6
Mikel Oyarzabal2 apps · 11 events
7 shots (2 on target)3 headers
57
▼

Had numerous opportunities and hit the crossbar but was also dispossessed in a dangerous area and failed to convert.

gs-0155Had numerous opportunities and hit the crossbar but was also dispossessed in a dangerous area and failed to convert.
gs-0397Contributed to Spain's dominant 4-0 victory.
6
Roberto Lopez1 app
6
▼

Registered a header on target from a cross.

gs-0156Registered a header on target from a cross.

Match observations

  • gs-015Spain maintained significant possession and generated numerous scoring opportunities throughout the contest.
  • gs-015Cabo Verde displayed a resilient defensive performance, with their goalkeeper Vozinha being particularly instrumental in thwarting Spain's efforts.
  • gs-015The match concluded in a goalless draw, a commendable result for Cabo Verde against a strong opponent.
  • gs-039The video captures the post-match atmosphere outside the stadium, with fans of both Spain and Saudi Arabia departing. The scoreboard overlay indicates a decisive 4-0 victory for Spain over Saudi Arabia. Supporters are seen walking in large groups, some wearing team colours and scarves, reflecting the general mood after the final whistle.

Statistical profile

Possession Dominant

Attack

Attack rating1.432nd/48
Shots per match15.35th/48
Chance quality0.13216th/48

Defence

Defence rating1.0844th/48
Goalkeeper rating0.907th/48

GK: Unai Simón

Set pieces

Set-piece goal share17.4%6th/48
Penalty conversion72.5%19th/48
Penalty save rate25.0%12th/48

Style

Possession68.5%1st/48
Press intensity15.74th/48
Directness3.140th/48
Crossing volume700.11st/48
Long ball volume21.340th/48
Build-up length10.01st/48

Squad

Avg. minutes per starter1,63323rd/48
Club familiarity0.01811th/48

Workload class: light

Attack and defence ratings from the model; style metrics from recent international matches; penalty rates via Bayesian estimation; goalkeeper rating from shot-prevention data. Rank is out of 48 tournament teams.

Where goals come from

Phase of play · scored & conceded

Scored39 goals · 360 shots
Conceded17 goals · 168 shots
  • Open play
  • Set piece
  • Counter
  • Penalty

Share of goals by how the chance began, across 21 matches (Euro2020,Euro2024,WC2018,WC2022). Shoot-out kicks are excluded. Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →

Group-stage matchups

vs Cape Verde2026-06-15
Win77.2%
Draw17.6%
Loss5.1%
Expected goals for2.83
Expected goals against0.47
Likeliest score2-0 (14.8%)
Both teams score35.4%
Clean sheet62.8%
Full fixture analysis →
vs Saudi Arabia2026-06-21
Win75.1%
Draw19.0%
Loss5.9%
Expected goals for2.49
Expected goals against0.46
Likeliest score2-0 (16.3%)
Both teams score34.0%
Clean sheet63.3%
Full fixture analysis →
vs Uruguay2026-06-26
Win52.8%
Draw28.2%
Loss19.0%
Expected goals for1.49
Expected goals against0.88
Likeliest score1-0 (13.2%)
Both teams score46.1%
Clean sheet41.5%
Full fixture analysis →

Probabilities from the calibrated ensemble model. xG from the Dixon–Coles fit. See each fixture page for full analysis.

Rating & probability history

12 snapshots · 2026-05-22 → 2026-06-24
Spain — Elo and tournament-winner probability over 12 snapshotsSpain trajectory: 12 snapshots between 2026-05-22 and 2026-06-24 (33 days). Elo moved from 2165.0 to 2165.0 (0). Tournament-winner probability moved from 20.6% to 15.0% (−5.6pp).Elo rating21552162216821752026-05-22 · Elo 2165.02026-06-06 · Elo 2165.0 (0 vs prior)2026-06-06 · Elo 2165.0 (0 vs prior)2026-06-07 · Elo 2165.0 (0 vs prior)2026-06-07 · Elo 2165.0 (0 vs prior)2026-06-07 · Elo 2165.0 (0 vs prior)2026-06-08 · Elo 2165.0 (0 vs prior)2026-06-08 · Elo 2165.0 (0 vs prior)2026-06-10 · Elo 2165.0 (0 vs prior)2026-06-10 · Elo 2165.0 (0 vs prior)2026-06-23 · Elo 2165.0 (0 vs prior)2026-06-24 · Elo 2165.0 (0 vs prior)Tournament-winner probability11.1%16.4%21.8%27.1%2026-05-22 · 20.6% (CI 15.4%–25.8%)2026-06-06 · 16.5% (CI 13.3%–20.7%) (−4.1pp vs prior)2026-06-06 · 16.5% (CI 13.3%–20.7%) (0pp vs prior)2026-06-07 · 17.2% (CI 13.3%–20.7%) (+0.7pp vs prior)2026-06-07 · 16.2% (CI 13.3%–20.7%) (−1.0pp vs prior)2026-06-07 · 16.2% (CI 13.3%–20.7%) (0pp vs prior)2026-06-08 · 25.6% (CI 13.3%–20.7%) (+9.4pp vs prior)2026-06-08 · 16.7% (CI 13.3%–20.7%) (−8.9pp vs prior)2026-06-10 · 16.9% (CI 13.3%–20.7%) (+0.2pp vs prior)2026-06-10 · 16.9% (CI 13.3%–20.7%) (0pp vs prior)2026-06-23 · 12.5% (CI 13.3%–20.7%) (−4.4pp vs prior)2026-06-24 · 15.0% (CI 13.3%–20.7%) (+2.6pp vs prior)snapshot date (2026-05-22 → 2026-06-24)

Spain trajectory: 12 snapshots between 2026-05-22 and 2026-06-24 (33 days). Elo moved from 2165.0 to 2165.0 (0). Tournament-winner probability moved from 20.6% to 15.0% (−5.6pp).

Each point is one model build. The shaded band is the bootstrap 90% credible interval around the tournament-winner probability.

Recent form (10 matches)

Record7W · 3D · 0L
Goals31–8
Form
DateOpponentScoreResultCompetition
2026-03-31HEgypt0–0DFriendly
2026-03-27HSerbia3–0WFriendly
2025-11-18HTurkey2–2DFIFA World Cup qualification
2025-11-15AGeorgia4–0WFIFA World Cup qualification
2025-10-14HBulgaria4–0WFIFA World Cup qualification
2025-10-11HGeorgia2–0WFIFA World Cup qualification
2025-09-07ATurkey6–0WFIFA World Cup qualification
2025-09-04ABulgaria3–0WFIFA World Cup qualification
2025-06-08NPortugal2–2DUEFA Nations League
2025-06-05NFrance5–4WUEFA Nations League

martj42 international results (CC0) · last 10 matches · ~2 years.

Head-to-head vs group opponents

OpponentMeetingsW-D-LLast meeting
Uruguay105-5-02013 — Win (2–1) · Confederations Cup
Saudi Arabia44-0-02026 — Win (4–0) · FIFA World Cup
Cape Verde10-1-02026 — Draw (0–0) · FIFA World Cup

All meetings via the martj42 international results dataset.

Major tournaments — most recent appearance

TournamentYearFinishW-D-LSince then
UEFA Euro2024Champion7-0-0
  • Same head coach (Luis de la Fuente) since 2022
  • 27/32 of current pool (84%) were active that year
FIFA World Cup2022Round of 161-2-1
  • Same head coach (Luis de la Fuente) since 2022
  • 12/32 of current pool (38%) were active that year

Source: FIFA archives. Penalty outcomes resolved to W/L.

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