Belgium
Snapshot · 2026-06-24Model 1.0.0UEFA·Group G·FIFA #8
Thibaut Courtois: #2 starting-GK rating in the field — 0.99 on club-derived save metrics across 48 teams.
- Rival
- Iran (#20)
- Key
- Kevin De Bruyne (MF)
WC2026 results
Tournament outlook
Analysis
Belgium are rated at 3.0% to win the tournament, placing them 10th in the field. The squad bridges generations: Axel Witsel (37 at kickoff with 136 caps — probably his final world cup) alongside Mike Penders, the squad's youngest prospect. Drawn in Group G alongside Iran, Egypt, New Zealand, they are projected at 97.2% to advance to the knockout stage.
How they play
Belgium under Rudi Garcia play a balanced game, holding 54% of the ball — among the highest in the tournament field. Their likely shape is a other, though they have also used 4-2-3-1. They apply moderate pressing intensity (PPDA 23.1) and build patiently through midfield with 7.7 passes per attacking sequence.
Path to success
Belgium face Iran, Egypt, New Zealand in Group G, with a 97.2% probability of advancing to the knockout rounds. A quarter-final run is realistic at 39.9%, though reaching the semi-finals (16.1%) would represent an exceptional campaign. Navigating the expanded 48-team format, which adds a round of 32, means an extra knockout fixture for any team with title ambitions.
What they must execute
Belgium will need to leverage their strengths while managing the physical demands of a tournament spread across three host countries. Managing minutes for Axel Witsel across what could be seven matches will test the coaching staff's rotation planning.
Controversial take
The model rates Belgium slightly lower than their FIFA ranking implies (a gap of 3.0 percentage points) — a modest divergence but one that reflects differences in how the two systems weight recent form.
Key numbers
How they play
Style vs the 48-team field
Balanced · style profile from 19 recent matches
What to watch: a high-tempo game, circulating the ball quickly.
Percentiles position Belgium against the 48-team field. Higher means more of that trait, not better or worse. Press is inverted (lower PPDA = higher press); width uses crossing rate as a proxy; tempo is open-play passes per minute of possession. Descriptive style analytics; does not feed the published probabilities.
Group G finish · Belgium
Monte Carlo, 100,000 simsTop two advance to the round of 32; best 8 of 12 third-placed teams also qualify.
- 57.9%1st (group winner)Advances to R32
- 26.3%2nd (runner-up)Advances to R32
- 12.0%3rdAdvances only if among the best 8 of 12 third-placed teams
- 3.9%4thEliminated
Stage progression · Belgium
, 100,000 sims- 94.2%AdvAdvance from group
- 61.9%R16Round of 16
- 34.5%QFQuarter-final
- 14.6%SFSemi-final
- 7.0%FFinal
- 2.9%WinWin the tournament
Likely knockout path · Belgium
Monte Carlo, 10,000 simsMost frequent opponents per round, conditional on reaching it.
R32
Round of 32
R16
Round of 16
The squad
Predicted squad
Model-predicted · snapshot 2026-05-28No jersey numbers assigned in the underlying source. The 26 below are picked by the model from the team's recent call-up pool.
★ likely first sub badge on the top-3 by first-sub score within each position group, plus a late-game impact rating where club per-90 stats are available.
▸How to read this squad— 4 columns explained
- Pos
- Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
- Caps
- Senior international appearances. Used by the model as a recency-weighted signal of how often the manager calls the player up.
- Stat
- Position-aware stat: career international goals for forwards; career international assists for midfielders (Transfermarkt); latest available Big-5 club season's total tackles for defenders (FBref); latest available Big-5 club season's save percentage for goalkeepers (FBref). Em-dash when no data is joined — most often for defenders and keepers at non-Big-5 clubs.
- Rating
- Composite rating (Model #4) — combines recent caps + goals, recent club xG and xAG per 90, position-relative quality, and call-up priors. Higher = the model thinks the player is more likely to start. Typically 0.9 (depth) to 2.5 (elite).
Selection driver — coloured chips show which input dominates a player's selection score. Caps-driven = selected mainly on international experience. Rating-driven = selected mainly on club performance quality. Jersey-boosted = jersey number from a recent squad snapshot lifted their score. Goals-driven = international goal record was the decisive factor. No chip when the score is a balanced blend.
Squad cohesion
Projected XI · club overlap
- Pairwise club minutes
- 1.91%
- Share of the 55-pair × 3000-minute ceiling. Higher = more of the XI plays together at club level.
- Club concentration
- 0.140
- How concentrated the XI is across clubs. 0.091 = 11 different clubs · 1.000 = all the same club.
- Top-3 clubs share
- 50%
- 5 of 10 play for the three most common clubs in the XI.
Top clubs in projected XI
- Eintracht Frankfurt2
- Manchester City2
- Real Madrid1
Most-connected club pair
Kevin De Bruyne + Jérémy Doku — Manchester City, 2024-25 · 2,751 shared minutes
Show next 2
- Arthur Theate + Michy Batshuayi — Eintracht Frankfurt, 2024-25 · 288 min
- Arthur Theate + Jérémy Doku — Rennes, 2023-24 · 110 min
Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Squad depth
Projected XI · replaceability
Most irreplaceable starters
- Youri TielemansCentral midfieldLikely cover: no natural backupreplacement-level CM ~0.280.41gap to repl.
- Romelu LukakuStrikerLikely cover: no natural backupreplacement-level ST ~0.240.37gap to repl.
- Zeno DebastCentre-backLikely cover: Brandon Mechele · 0.56Club Brugge0.32gap to repl.
Gap to repl. = how far this nation's rating at the position falls from the starter to his likely in-squad replacement (named above). Larger = harder to replace.
Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Group schedule
Group-stage schedule
| MD | Date | Opponent | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jun 15, 2026 | Egypt | Seattle, United States |
| 2 | Jun 21, 2026 | Iran | Inglewood, United States |
| 3 | Jun 26, 2026 | New Zealand | Vancouver, Canada |
Head-to-head matchups
Storylines
Storylines
Updated 28 days ago#2 starting-GK rating in the field — 0.99 on club-derived save metrics across 48 teams.
37 at kickoff with 136 caps — probably his final World Cup.
First World Cup as head coach, appointed 2025.
Takes corners and penalties — the team's dead-ball threat.
Form & track record
Video analysis: Belgium
Performance data from official highlights analysis across 2 matches. 15 players observed, 46 events tracked.
Made several important saves throughout the match, preventing Egypt from extending their lead.
Match by match
Player ratings (15)
8.5Thibaut Courtois2 apps · 7 events7 saves89▼
Made several important saves throughout the match, preventing Egypt from extending their lead.
8Romelu Lukaku2 apps · 5 events2 goals1 shot1 header88▼
Made an immediate and decisive impact by scoring the equalizing goal shortly after his introduction.
7Kevin De Bruyne1 app · 7 events3 shots (2 on target)7▼
Showed flashes of his creative genius, hitting the post and forcing saves from free kicks, but couldn't convert his chances.
7Jérémy Doku1 app · 6 events4 shots1 fouls won7▼
Was a constant offensive threat with his dribbling and movement, drawing fouls and creating chances, though his shots were consistently blocked.
7Youri Tielemans1 app · 4 events4 shots (3 on target)7▼
Was a persistent offensive presence, registering multiple shots on target and actively trying to break down the defense.
7Thomas Meunier1 app · 4 events4 shots (4 on target)7▼
Was very active in Belgium's attack from his wide position, registering multiple shots on target.
6Charles De Ketelaere1 app · 3 events1 shot (1 on target)1 header6▼
Registered a header on target but was substituted before Belgium's equalizer, indicating a limited overall impact.
6Leandro Trossard2 apps · 2 events2 shots66▼
6Nathan Ngoy1 app · 1 events1 fouls won6▼
Was involved in an early foul but had no other specific actions mentioned, suggesting an average, quiet performance.
6Nicolas Raskin1 app · 1 events6▼
Came on as a substitute but had no specific actions mentioned in the match events.
6Arthur Theate1 app6▼
Played a quiet but steady role, contributing to the team's defensive efforts without major errors or standout moments.
5Timothy Castagne1 app · 3 events1 yellow5▼
Picked up an early yellow card and was substituted before the hour mark, limiting his overall impact.
5Dodi Lukébakio1 app5▼
His only notable action was committing a foul, with no positive contributions mentioned.
4Maxim De Cuyper1 app · 3 events1 yellow4▼
Came on as a substitute and immediately received a yellow card for a foul, negatively impacting his performance.
4Zeno Debast1 app4▼
Made a significant defensive error that almost led to a goal for the opposition.
Match observations
- gs-013The match was a competitive encounter, ending in a 1-1 draw with both teams finding the net.
- gs-013Egypt took the lead in the first half with a well-placed shot, while Belgium equalized in the second half shortly after a key substitution.
- gs-013Both sides had numerous attempts at goal, with goalkeepers on both ends making significant saves to keep the score level.
- gs-037The match was a tense and hard-fought encounter at SoFi Stadium, with both teams desperate for a victory to advance in the World Cup.
- gs-037The first half was a cagey affair with few clear-cut chances, though Iran came closest with a shot hitting the post.
- gs-037The second half exploded into life with end-to-end action, featuring a goal for Iran, a late equalizer for Belgium, and numerous dramatic moments.
Statistical profile
BalancedAttack
Defence
GK: Thibaut Courtois
Set pieces
Style
Squad
Workload class: light
Attack and defence ratings from the model; style metrics from recent international matches; penalty rates via Bayesian estimation; goalkeeper rating from shot-prevention data. Rank is out of 48 tournament teams.
Where goals come from
Phase of play · scored & conceded
- Open play
- Set piece
- Counter
- Penalty
Share of goals by how the chance began, across 19 matches (Euro2020,Euro2024,WC2018,WC2022). Shoot-out kicks are excluded. Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Group-stage matchups
Probabilities from the calibrated ensemble model. xG from the Dixon–Coles fit. See each fixture page for full analysis.
Rating & probability history
12 snapshots · 2026-05-22 → 2026-06-24Belgium trajectory: 12 snapshots between 2026-05-22 and 2026-06-24 (33 days). Elo moved from 1866.0 to 1867.0 (+1.0). Tournament-winner probability moved from 2.1% to 2.9% (+0.9pp).
Each point is one model build. The shaded band is the bootstrap 90% credible interval around the tournament-winner probability.
Recent form (10 matches)
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | NMexico | 1–1 | D | Friendly |
| 2026-03-28 | AUnited States | 5–2 | W | Friendly |
| 2025-11-18 | HLiechtenstein | 7–0 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-11-15 | AKazakhstan | 1–1 | D | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-10-13 | AWales | 4–2 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-10-10 | HNorth Macedonia | 0–0 | D | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-09-07 | HKazakhstan | 6–0 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-09-04 | ALiechtenstein | 6–0 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-06-09 | HWales | 4–3 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-06-06 | ANorth Macedonia | 1–1 | D | FIFA World Cup qualification |
martj42 international results (CC0) · last 10 matches · ~2 years.
Head-to-head vs group opponents
| Opponent | Meetings | W-D-L | Last meeting |
|---|---|---|---|
| Egypt | 5 | 1-1-3 | 2026 — Draw (1–1) · FIFA World Cup |
| Iran | 1 | 0-1-0 | 2026 — Draw (0–0) · FIFA World Cup |
| New Zealand | 0 | — | No prior meetings |
All meetings via the martj42 international results dataset.
Major tournaments — most recent appearance
| Tournament | Year | Finish | W-D-L | Since then |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UEFA Euro | 2024 | Round of 16 | 1-1-2 |
|
| FIFA World Cup | 2022 | Group stage | 1-1-1 |
|
Source: FIFA archives. Penalty outcomes resolved to W/L.
Most similar past team-tournaments
Closest comparable teams from past major tournaments (1990-2024), by squad strength, group draw, and recent form. Shown for context, not a prediction.
England · World Cup 2018
Finished fourth
Comparable pre-tournament strength (Elo 1987) and group draw.
Italy · Euro 2016
Exited at the quarter-final
Spain · Euro 2016
Exited at the round of 16
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