New Zealand
Snapshot · 2026-06-24Model 1.0.0OFC·Group G·FIFA #86
Model rates them #38 by tournament-winner probability — 48 places higher than FIFA #86.
- Rival
- Belgium (#8)
- Key
- Chris Wood (FW)
Final squad announced · New Zealand · 2026-05-30
Source: Reddit — /r/worldcup ↗WC2026 results
Tournament outlook
Analysis
New Zealand carry a <0.1% probability of winning the tournament (40th of 48). Drawn in Group G alongside Belgium, Iran, Egypt, they are projected at 20.9% to advance to the knockout stage.
How they play
Limited recent tournament data is available for New Zealand's tactical profile. Early indicators suggest a balanced approach.
Path to success
In Group G alongside Belgium, Iran, Egypt, New Zealand are projected at 20.9% to advance from the group stage. A competitive group-stage showing — taking points off higher-ranked opponents — would mark a successful campaign. The expanded 48-team format gives smaller federations more runway, and upsets in the group stage are a fixture of every World Cup.
What they must execute
New Zealand will need to leverage their strengths while managing the physical demands of a tournament spread across three host countries.
Controversial take
The model and FIFA rankings tell different stories for New Zealand. Model rates them #38 by tournament-winner probability — 48 places higher than FIFA #86.
Key numbers
How they play
Style vs the 48-team field
Not enough recent match data on file to build a style profile for New Zealand. Insufficient match coverage.
Percentiles position New Zealand against the 48-team field. Higher means more of that trait, not better or worse. Press is inverted (lower PPDA = higher press); width uses crossing rate as a proxy; tempo is open-play passes per minute of possession. Descriptive style analytics; does not feed the published probabilities.
Group G finish · New Zealand
Monte Carlo, 100,000 simsTop two advance to the round of 32; best 8 of 12 third-placed teams also qualify.
- 3.3%1st (group winner)Advances to R32
- 10.6%2nd (runner-up)Advances to R32
- 25.4%3rdAdvances only if among the best 8 of 12 third-placed teams
- 60.8%4thEliminated
Stage progression · New Zealand
, 100,000 sims- 29.2%AdvAdvance from group
- 9.3%R16Round of 16
- 2.0%QFQuarter-final
- 0.4%SFSemi-final
- 0.1%FFinal
- <0.1%WinWin the tournament
Likely knockout path · New Zealand
Monte Carlo, 10,000 simsThe squad
Confirmed squad
Wikipedia call-up pool · snapshot 2026-05-28Roster confirmed by the federation's official squad announcement. The XI/bench split below is the model's composite-rating ordering, not the head coach's lineup.
★ likely first sub badge on the top-3 by first-sub score within each position group, plus a late-game impact rating where club per-90 stats are available.
▸How to read this squad— 4 columns explained
- Pos
- Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
- Caps
- Senior international appearances. Used by the model as a recency-weighted signal of how often the manager calls the player up.
- Stat
- Position-aware stat: career international goals for forwards; career international assists for midfielders (Transfermarkt); latest available Big-5 club season's total tackles for defenders (FBref); latest available Big-5 club season's save percentage for goalkeepers (FBref). Em-dash when no data is joined — most often for defenders and keepers at non-Big-5 clubs.
- Rating
- Composite rating (Model #4) — combines recent caps + goals, recent club xG and xAG per 90, position-relative quality, and call-up priors. Higher = the model thinks the player is more likely to start. Typically 0.9 (depth) to 2.5 (elite).
Selection driver — coloured chips show which input dominates a player's selection score. Caps-driven = selected mainly on international experience. Rating-driven = selected mainly on club performance quality. Jersey-boosted = jersey number from a recent squad snapshot lifted their score. Goals-driven = international goal record was the decisive factor. No chip when the score is a balanced blend.
Squad cohesion
Projected XI · club overlap
Low coverage: 2/11 of the projected XI have club-minutes rows in our ratings table. Numbers below are structurally suppressed and should be read alongside the resolved count, not in isolation.
- Pairwise club minutes
- 0.00%
- Share of the 55-pair × 3000-minute ceiling. Higher = more of the XI plays together at club level.
- Club concentration
- 0.500
- How concentrated the XI is across clubs. 0.091 = 11 different clubs · 1.000 = all the same club.
- Top-3 clubs share
- 100%
- 2 of 2 play for the three most common clubs in the XI.
Top clubs in projected XI
- Empoli1
- Nottingham Forest1
Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Squad depth
Projected XI · replaceability
Most irreplaceable starters
- Marko StamenićCentral midfieldLikely cover: Lachlan Bayliss · 0.00Newcastle Jets0.58gap to repl.
- Chris WoodStrikerLikely cover: no natural backupreplacement-level ST ~0.240.45gap to repl.
- Liberato CacaceFull-backLikely cover: Ben Old · 0.28Saint-Étienne0.26gap to repl.
Gap to repl. = how far this nation's rating at the position falls from the starter to his likely in-squad replacement (named above). Larger = harder to replace.
Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Group schedule
Group-stage schedule
Head-to-head matchups
Storylines
Storylines
Updated 28 days agoModel rates them #38 by tournament-winner probability — 48 places higher than FIFA #86.
XI averaged 2,624 club minutes in 2024-25 — #1 of 43 in the field. Heavy pre-tournament load on the starting eleven.
5 of 24 predicted-squad players play their club football for Auckland FC — a single-club spine on the international side.
Top pool goalkeeper Max Crocombe rates only 0.40 on club save metrics (the field's top sides sit at 0.85+) — a thin position group going into the tournament.
Form & track record
Video analysis: New Zealand
Performance data from official highlights analysis across 2 matches. 6 players observed, 6 events tracked.
Scored two crucial goals, demonstrating clinical finishing and excellent positioning.
2 goalsMatch by match
Player ratings (6)
9Elijah Just1 app · 2 events2 goals9▼
Scored two crucial goals, demonstrating clinical finishing and excellent positioning.
8Chris Wood1 app8▼
Scored two crucial headers, showcasing excellent aerial ability to bring New Zealand back into the game.
7Max Crocombe1 app · 1 events1 save7▼
Made vital saves for New Zealand, preventing Iran from scoring more than two goals.
6Tim Payne1 app · 1 events6▼
Played for 77 minutes without any notable positive or negative contributions.
6Callan Elliot1 app · 1 events6▼
Came on as a substitute but did not have any notable impact on the game.
6Jesse Randall1 app · 1 events6▼
Came on as a late substitute but did not have any notable impact on the game.
Match observations
- gs-014The match was a high-energy contest, with both teams demonstrating a strong desire to attack.
- gs-014New Zealand established a lead twice, but Iran showed resilience by equalizing on both occasions.
- gs-014Key moments included a shot striking the post and multiple impressive saves from both goalkeepers, highlighting the competitive nature of the game.
- gs-038This was a high-scoring and dynamic encounter, with both teams showcasing their attacking prowess.
- gs-038Egypt established an early lead with two well-taken goals, but New Zealand displayed resilience to draw level.
- gs-038The match featured several momentum swings, keeping the contest exciting until Egypt ultimately secured the victory.
Statistical profile
BalancedAttack
Defence
GK: Max Crocombe
Set pieces
Style
Squad
Workload class: moderate
Attack and defence ratings from the model; style metrics from recent international matches; penalty rates via Bayesian estimation; goalkeeper rating from shot-prevention data. Rank is out of 48 tournament teams.
Where goals come from
Phase of play · scored & conceded
New Zealand hasn't appeared in the StatsBomb open-data tournaments, so there's no phase-of-play breakdown on file.
Group-stage matchups
Probabilities from the calibrated ensemble model. xG from the Dixon–Coles fit. See each fixture page for full analysis.
Rating & probability history
12 snapshots · 2026-05-22 → 2026-06-24New Zealand trajectory: 12 snapshots between 2026-05-22 and 2026-06-24 (33 days). Elo moved from 1585.0 to 1585.0 (0). Tournament-winner probability moved from 0.0% to <0.1% (0pp).
Each point is one model build. The shaded band is the bootstrap 90% credible interval around the tournament-winner probability.
Recent form (10 matches)
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-30 | HChile | 4–1 | W | FIFA Series |
| 2026-03-27 | HFinland | 0–2 | L | FIFA Series |
| 2025-11-18 | NEcuador | 0–2 | L | Friendly |
| 2025-11-15 | NColombia | 1–2 | L | Friendly |
| 2025-10-14 | ANorway | 1–1 | D | Friendly |
| 2025-10-09 | APoland | 0–1 | L | Friendly |
| 2025-09-09 | HAustralia | 1–3 | L | Soccer Ashes |
| 2025-09-05 | AAustralia | 0–1 | L | Soccer Ashes |
| 2025-06-10 | NUkraine | 1–2 | L | Canadian Shield |
| 2025-06-07 | NIvory Coast | 1–0 | W | Canadian Shield |
martj42 international results (CC0) · last 10 matches · ~2 years.
Head-to-head vs group opponents
| Opponent | Meetings | W-D-L | Last meeting |
|---|---|---|---|
| Egypt | 4 | 0-1-3 | 2026 — Loss (1–3) · FIFA World Cup |
| Iran | 3 | 0-2-1 | 2026 — Draw (2–2) · FIFA World Cup |
| Belgium | 0 | — | No prior meetings |
All meetings via the martj42 international results dataset.
Major tournaments — most recent appearance
| Tournament | Year | Finish | W-D-L | Since then |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oceania Nations Cup | 2024 | 4 matches | 4-0-0 |
|
| FIFA World Cup | 2010 | Group stage | 0-3-0 |
|
Source: FIFA archives. Penalty outcomes resolved to W/L.
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