Forecast vs result · Group G · Matchday 2

Egypt vs New Zealand

2026-06-21

The recap publishes at full time. Once this match finishes, this page shows how the frozen pre-match forecast below scored against the realised outcome: Brier score, log loss, and final xG vs predicted xG. Until then, follow it live on the live tracker.

Pre-match forecast

Egypt win
61.0%
Draw
29.2%
New Zealand win
9.8%
Egypt
1.29
expected
goals
New Zealand
0.46

Video analysis: player performance

Per-player ratings and event breakdowns from official highlights analysis. Tap a player to see their full match timeline.

Egypt
9
Omar Marmoush

Scored two crucial goals with clinical finishing, putting Egypt back in the lead twice.

9
Mohamed Salah

Delivered a standout offensive display with a powerful long-range goal and a composed penalty conversion.

2goals

Match timeline

New Zealand

Match observations

  • This was a high-scoring and dynamic encounter, with both teams showcasing their attacking prowess.
  • Egypt established an early lead with two well-taken goals, but New Zealand displayed resilience to draw level.
  • The match featured several momentum swings, keeping the contest exciting until Egypt ultimately secured the victory.

How to read this. A single match's Brier and log-loss are noisy. What matters is how the forecast calibrates across many matches. This per-fixture recap is one row of the aggregate calibration scoreboard at /docs/calibration/. The pre-match probability shown here is the one frozen before kickoff; it was never re-priced during play.