Ecuador
Snapshot · 2026-06-24Model 1.0.0CONMEBOL·Group E·FIFA #23
Transition-heavy side.
- Rival
- Germany (#9)
- Key
- Kevin Rodríguez (FW)
Final squad announced · Ecuador · 2026-06-01
Source: USA Today ↗WC2026 results
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 14 | Ivory Coast | 0–1 | L | Philadelphia |
| Jun 20 | Curaçao | 0–0 | D | Kansas City |
Tournament outlook
Analysis
Ecuador sit in the second tier of contenders with a 1.5% tournament probability (14th in the field). The squad bridges generations: Enner Valencia (36 at kickoff with 105 caps — probably his final world cup) alongside wp-deinner-ordonez-2009-10-29, the squad's youngest prospect. Drawn in Group E alongside Germany, Ivory Coast, Curaçao, they are projected at 95.7% to advance to the knockout stage.
How they play
Ecuador under Sebastián Beccacece play a transition heavy game with 47% possession. Their likely shape is a 4-3-3, though they have also used 4-4-2 and other. They press intensely (PPDA 16.5, top quartile (6th of 40)) and move the ball forward quickly at 5.2 passes per attack. They favour high-quality chances (xG/shot 0.140, among the best in the field).
Path to success
Ecuador face Germany, Ivory Coast, Curaçao in Group E, with a 95.7% probability of advancing to the knockout rounds. A quarter-final run is realistic at 22.6%, though reaching the semi-finals (10.7%) would represent an exceptional campaign. Navigating the expanded 48-team format, which adds a round of 32, means an extra knockout fixture for any team with title ambitions.
What they must execute
Ecuador rely on defensive discipline and quick transitions — absorbing pressure and converting turnovers into attacking chances. Concentration and defensive organisation for full 90-minute stretches will determine whether the approach holds against top opposition. Managing minutes for Enner Valencia across what could be seven matches will test the coaching staff's rotation planning.
Controversial take
The model's assessment of Ecuador broadly aligns with their FIFA ranking — no major disagreement between the two systems for this squad.
Key numbers
How they play
Style vs the 48-team field
Transition-heavy · style profile from 7 recent matches
What to watch: a notably direct, vertical attack.
Percentiles position Ecuador against the 48-team field. Higher means more of that trait, not better or worse. Press is inverted (lower PPDA = higher press); width uses crossing rate as a proxy; tempo is open-play passes per minute of possession. Descriptive style analytics; does not feed the published probabilities.
Group E finish · Ecuador
Monte Carlo, 100,000 simsTop two advance to the round of 32; best 8 of 12 third-placed teams also qualify.
- 36.3%1st (group winner)Advances to R32
- 39.6%2nd (runner-up)Advances to R32
- 21.0%3rdAdvances only if among the best 8 of 12 third-placed teams
- 3.1%4thEliminated
Stage progression · Ecuador
, 100,000 sims- 92.7%AdvAdvance from group
- 49.1%R16Round of 16
- 22.3%QFQuarter-final
- 10.5%SFSemi-final
- 4.2%FFinal
- 1.7%WinWin the tournament
Likely knockout path · Ecuador
Monte Carlo, 10,000 simsThe squad
Confirmed squad
Model-predicted · snapshot 2026-05-28Roster confirmed by the federation's official squad announcement. The XI/bench split below is the model's composite-rating ordering, not the head coach's lineup.
★ likely first sub badge on the top-3 by first-sub score within each position group, plus a late-game impact rating where club per-90 stats are available.
▸How to read this squad— 4 columns explained
- Pos
- Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
- Caps
- Senior international appearances. Used by the model as a recency-weighted signal of how often the manager calls the player up.
- Stat
- Position-aware stat: career international goals for forwards; career international assists for midfielders (Transfermarkt); latest available Big-5 club season's total tackles for defenders (FBref); latest available Big-5 club season's save percentage for goalkeepers (FBref). Em-dash when no data is joined — most often for defenders and keepers at non-Big-5 clubs.
- Rating
- Composite rating (Model #4) — combines recent caps + goals, recent club xG and xAG per 90, position-relative quality, and call-up priors. Higher = the model thinks the player is more likely to start. Typically 0.9 (depth) to 2.5 (elite).
Selection driver — coloured chips show which input dominates a player's selection score. Caps-driven = selected mainly on international experience. Rating-driven = selected mainly on club performance quality. Jersey-boosted = jersey number from a recent squad snapshot lifted their score. Goals-driven = international goal record was the decisive factor. No chip when the score is a balanced blend.
Squad cohesion
Projected XI · club overlap
Low coverage: 2/11 of the projected XI have club-minutes rows in our ratings table. Numbers below are structurally suppressed and should be read alongside the resolved count, not in isolation.
- Pairwise club minutes
- 0.00%
- Share of the 55-pair × 3000-minute ceiling. Higher = more of the XI plays together at club level.
- Club concentration
- 0.500
- How concentrated the XI is across clubs. 0.091 = 11 different clubs · 1.000 = all the same club.
- Top-3 clubs share
- 100%
- 2 of 2 play for the three most common clubs in the XI.
Top clubs in projected XI
- Bayer Leverkusen1
- Chelsea1
Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Squad depth
Projected XI · replaceability
Most irreplaceable starters
- Joel OrdóñezCentre-backLikely cover: Jackson Porozo · 0.05Tijuana0.80gap to repl.
- Félix TorresCentre-backLikely cover: Jackson Porozo · 0.05Tijuana0.57gap to repl.
- Moisés CaicedoDefensive midfieldLikely cover: no natural backupreplacement-level DM ~0.250.32gap to repl.
Gap to repl. = how far this nation's rating at the position falls from the starter to his likely in-squad replacement (named above). Larger = harder to replace.
Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Group schedule
Group-stage schedule
| MD | Date | Opponent | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jun 14, 2026 | Ivory Coast | Philadelphia, United States |
| 2 | Jun 20, 2026 | Curaçao | Kansas City, United States |
| 3 | Jun 25, 2026 | Germany | East Rutherford, United States |
Head-to-head matchups
Storylines
Storylines
Updated 28 days ago16 at kickoff — 0 caps — projected on the bench, the squad's youngest pick.
36 at kickoff with 105 caps — probably his final World Cup.
Top pool goalkeeper Hernán Galíndez rates only 0.44 on club save metrics (the field's top sides sit at 0.85+) — a thin position group going into the tournament.
Converted only 3 of 5 career penalties (60%) — a wasteful record from the spot in knockouts.
Form & track record
Video analysis: Ecuador
Performance data from official highlights analysis across 2 matches. 12 players observed, 27 events tracked.
He made several crucial saves throughout the match, keeping his team in contention despite the loss.
Match by match
Player ratings (12)
8Hernán Galíndez2 apps · 6 events5 saves88▼
He made several crucial saves throughout the match, keeping his team in contention despite the loss.
7Alan Minda1 app · 6 events3 shots1 fouls won7▼
He was very active in attack, hitting the crossbar twice and the post once, showing significant threat despite not scoring.
7Nilson Angulo1 app · 2 events2 shots (1 on target)7▼
He was unlucky to hit the post and had multiple shots saved, demonstrating a consistent attacking threat.
6Pedro Vite1 app · 3 events1 shot2 fouls won6▼
He drew two fouls but his only shot went wide, without making a significant impact.
6Ángelo Preciado1 app · 2 events1 shot (1 on target)6▼
He came on as a substitute and had a shot saved and a cross cleared, but without major impact.
6Alan Franco1 app · 1 events6▼
He was substituted into the game but had no distinct actions mentioned.
6Gonzalo Plata1 app · 1 events1 shot6▼
He had a shot blocked but otherwise had no distinct actions mentioned.
6Piero Hincapié1 app6▼
He had a shot saved by the goalkeeper but otherwise had no distinct actions mentioned.
6Joel Ordóñez1 app6▼
He had a header attempt from a corner that went over the bar.
6Kevin Rodríguez1 app6▼
He had a header attempt from a corner that went over the bar.
5John Yeboah1 app · 3 events2 shots5▼
He had two shots that went high and wide, failing to test the goalkeeper before being substituted.
5Enner Valencia1 app · 3 events1 shot1 block1 fouls won5▼
He missed a good opportunity and was generally ineffective in attack, though he did draw a foul.
Match observations
- gs-010The match was a tightly contested affair with both teams creating numerous opportunities.
- gs-010Ecuador hit the woodwork twice in the first half, and Ivory Coast hit it twice in the second half, indicating a game of fine margins.
- gs-010Defensive solidity was a key theme, with both goalkeepers and defenders making crucial interventions.
- gs-034Curacao, making their first appearance at a FIFA World Cup, created several attacking opportunities throughout the contest.
- gs-034Despite their efforts, Curacao struggled with their finishing, failing to convert their chances into goals.
- gs-034Ecuador's goalkeeper played a pivotal role, making a significant save to keep the score level in a tightly contested affair.
Statistical profile
Transition HeavyAttack
Defence
GK: Hernán Galíndez
Set pieces
Style
Squad
Workload class: low
Attack and defence ratings from the model; style metrics from recent international matches; penalty rates via Bayesian estimation; goalkeeper rating from shot-prevention data. Rank is out of 48 tournament teams.
Where goals come from
Phase of play · scored & conceded
- Open play
- Set piece
- Counter
- Penalty
Share of goals by how the chance began, across 7 matches (CopaAmerica2024,WC2022). Shoot-out kicks are excluded. Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Group-stage matchups
Probabilities from the calibrated ensemble model. xG from the Dixon–Coles fit. See each fixture page for full analysis.
Rating & probability history
12 snapshots · 2026-05-22 → 2026-06-24Ecuador trajectory: 12 snapshots between 2026-05-22 and 2026-06-24 (33 days). Elo moved from 1933.0 to 1933.0 (0). Tournament-winner probability moved from 1.2% to 1.7% (+0.5pp).
Each point is one model build. The shaded band is the bootstrap 90% credible interval around the tournament-winner probability.
Recent form (10 matches)
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | ANetherlands | 1–1 | D | Friendly |
| 2026-03-27 | NMorocco | 1–1 | D | Friendly |
| 2025-11-18 | NNew Zealand | 2–0 | W | Friendly |
| 2025-11-13 | ACanada | 0–0 | D | Friendly |
| 2025-10-14 | AMexico | 1–1 | D | Friendly |
| 2025-10-10 | AUnited States | 1–1 | D | Friendly |
| 2025-09-09 | HArgentina | 1–0 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-09-04 | AParaguay | 0–0 | D | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-06-10 | APeru | 0–0 | D | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-06-05 | HBrazil | 0–0 | D | FIFA World Cup qualification |
martj42 international results (CC0) · last 10 matches · ~2 years.
Head-to-head vs group opponents
| Opponent | Meetings | W-D-L | Last meeting |
|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | 2 | 0-0-2 | 2013 — Loss (2–4) · Friendly |
| Curaçao | 1 | 0-1-0 | 2026 — Draw (0–0) · FIFA World Cup |
| Ivory Coast | 1 | 0-0-1 | 2026 — Loss (0–1) · FIFA World Cup |
All meetings via the martj42 international results dataset.
Major tournaments — most recent appearance
| Tournament | Year | Finish | W-D-L | Since then |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Copa América | 2024 | Quarter-finals | 1-2-1 |
|
| FIFA World Cup | 2022 | Group stage | 1-1-1 |
|
| Gold Cup | 2002 | 2 matches | 1-0-1 |
|
Source: FIFA archives. Penalty outcomes resolved to W/L.
Most similar past team-tournaments
Closest comparable teams from past major tournaments (1990-2024), by squad strength, group draw, and recent form. Shown for context, not a prediction.
Uruguay · World Cup 2018
Exited at the quarter-final
Comparable pre-tournament strength (Elo 1939) and group draw.
Argentina · Copa América 2004
Won the tournament
Uruguay · Copa América 2016
Exited at the group stage
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