Forecast vs result · Group E · Matchday 1

Ivory Coast vs Ecuador

2026-06-14

The recap publishes at full time. Once this match finishes, this page shows how the frozen pre-match forecast below scored against the realised outcome — Brier score, log loss, and final xG vs predicted xG. Until then, follow it live on the live tracker.

Pre-match forecast

Ivory Coast win
17.9%
Draw
29.8%
Ecuador win
52.2%
Ivory Coast
0.66
expected
goals
Ecuador
1.07
← Pre-match forecastLive tracker →

How to read this. A single match's Brier and log-loss are noisy — what matters is how the forecast calibrates across many matches. This per-fixture recap is one row of the aggregate calibration scoreboard at /docs/calibration/. The pre-match probability shown here is the one frozen before kickoff; it was never re-priced during play.