Czech Republic
Snapshot · 2026-06-24Model 1.0.0UEFA·Group A·FIFA #—
Counter-attacking side led by Patrik Schick, with a Slavia Prague-heavy spine.
- Rival
- Mexico (#15)
- Key
- Patrik Schick (FW)
WC2026 results
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 11 | South Korea | 1–2 | L | Zapopan |
| Jun 18 | South Africa | 1–1 | D | Atlanta |
Tournament outlook
Analysis
Czech Republic carry a 0.2% probability of winning the tournament (28th of 48). Watch for Hugo Sochůrek — 18 at kickoff — 0 caps — projected on the bench, the squad's youngest pick. Drawn in Group A alongside Mexico, South Korea, South Africa, they are projected at 75.8% to advance to the knockout stage.
How they play
Czech Republic under Miroslav Koubek play a counter attacker game, with just 45% possession — among the lowest in the field. They apply moderate pressing intensity (PPDA 20.4).
Path to success
In Group A alongside Mexico, South Korea, South Africa, Czech Republic are projected at 75.8% to advance from the group stage. Qualification to the knockout rounds is the primary target. The round of 32 probability sits at 34.2%. The expanded 48-team format gives smaller federations more runway, and upsets in the group stage are a fixture of every World Cup.
What they must execute
Czech Republic rely on defensive discipline and quick transitions — absorbing pressure and converting turnovers into attacking chances. Concentration and defensive organisation for full 90-minute stretches will determine whether the approach holds against top opposition.
Controversial take
The model's assessment of Czech Republic broadly aligns with their FIFA ranking — no major disagreement between the two systems for this squad.
Key numbers
How they play
Style vs the 48-team field
Counter-attacking · style profile from 8 recent matches
What to watch: a notably direct, vertical attack.
Percentiles position Czech Republic against the 48-team field. Higher means more of that trait, not better or worse. Press is inverted (lower PPDA = higher press); width uses crossing rate as a proxy; tempo is open-play passes per minute of possession. Descriptive style analytics; does not feed the published probabilities.
Group A finish · Czech Republic
Monte Carlo, 100,000 simsTop two advance to the round of 32; best 8 of 12 third-placed teams also qualify.
- 15.4%1st (group winner)Advances to R32
- 30.0%2nd (runner-up)Advances to R32
- 33.7%3rdAdvances only if among the best 8 of 12 third-placed teams
- 20.8%4thEliminated
Stage progression · Czech Republic
, 100,000 sims- 69.2%AdvAdvance from group
- 30.9%R16Round of 16
- 11.2%QFQuarter-final
- 3.2%SFSemi-final
- 0.9%FFinal
- 0.3%WinWin the tournament
Likely knockout path · Czech Republic
Monte Carlo, 10,000 simsThe squad
Predicted squad
Model-predicted · snapshot 2026-05-28No jersey numbers assigned in the underlying source. The 26 below are picked by the model from the team's recent call-up pool.
★ likely first sub badge on the top-3 by first-sub score within each position group, plus a late-game impact rating where club per-90 stats are available.
▸How to read this squad— 4 columns explained
- Pos
- Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
- Caps
- Senior international appearances. Used by the model as a recency-weighted signal of how often the manager calls the player up.
- Stat
- Position-aware stat: career international goals for forwards; career international assists for midfielders (Transfermarkt); latest available Big-5 club season's total tackles for defenders (FBref); latest available Big-5 club season's save percentage for goalkeepers (FBref). Em-dash when no data is joined — most often for defenders and keepers at non-Big-5 clubs.
- Rating
- Composite rating (Model #4) — combines recent caps + goals, recent club xG and xAG per 90, position-relative quality, and call-up priors. Higher = the model thinks the player is more likely to start. Typically 0.9 (depth) to 2.5 (elite).
Selection driver — coloured chips show which input dominates a player's selection score. Caps-driven = selected mainly on international experience. Rating-driven = selected mainly on club performance quality. Jersey-boosted = jersey number from a recent squad snapshot lifted their score. Goals-driven = international goal record was the decisive factor. No chip when the score is a balanced blend.
Squad cohesion
Projected XI · club overlap
Low coverage: 5/11 of the projected XI have club-minutes rows in our ratings table. Numbers below are structurally suppressed and should be read alongside the resolved count, not in isolation.
- Pairwise club minutes
- 2.65%
- Share of the 55-pair × 3000-minute ceiling. Higher = more of the XI plays together at club level.
- Club concentration
- 0.280
- How concentrated the XI is across clubs. 0.091 = 11 different clubs · 1.000 = all the same club.
- Top-3 clubs share
- 80%
- 4 of 5 play for the three most common clubs in the XI.
Top clubs in projected XI
- West Ham2
- Torino1
- Bayer Leverkusen1
Most-connected club pair
Vladimír Coufal + Tomáš Souček — West Ham, 2023-24 · 3,937 shared minutes
Show next 1
- Patrik Schick + Adam Hložek — Bayer Leverkusen, 2023-24 · 429 min
Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Squad depth
Projected XI · replaceability
Most irreplaceable starters
- Lukáš ProvodWingerLikely cover: no natural backupreplacement-level W ~0.280.38gap to repl.
- Patrik SchickStrikerLikely cover: Mojmír Chytil · 0.60Slavia Prague0.30gap to repl.
- Matěj KovářGoalkeeperLikely cover: Jindřich Staněk · 0.65Slavia Prague0.19gap to repl.
Gap to repl. = how far this nation's rating at the position falls from the starter to his likely in-squad replacement (named above). Larger = harder to replace.
Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Group schedule
Group-stage schedule
| MD | Date | Opponent | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jun 11, 2026 | South Korea | Zapopan, Mexico |
| 2 | Jun 18, 2026 | South Africa | Atlanta, United States |
| 3 | Jun 24, 2026 | Mexico | Mexico City, Mexico |
Head-to-head matchups
Storylines
Storylines
Updated 28 days ago8 of 26 predicted-squad players play their club football for Slavia Prague — a single-club spine on the international side.
18 at kickoff — 0 caps — projected on the bench, the squad's youngest pick.
Averaged 2.40 xG per match across 8 recent internationals — #5 of 35 in the field for attacking output.
First World Cup as head coach, appointed 2025.
Form & track record
Video analysis: Czech Republic
Performance data from official highlights analysis across 2 matches. 3 players observed, 2 events tracked.
Opened the scoring for Czech Republic with a well-executed header from a set-piece.
Match by match
Player ratings (3)
8Czechia #71 app8▼
Opened the scoring for Czech Republic with a well-executed header from a set-piece.
7Patrik Schick1 app · 2 events1 shot (1 on target)1 header7▼
Showed good aerial presence and was involved in several attacking movements, despite being unable to convert his chances.
6Lukáš Sadílek1 app6▼
Engaged in midfield duels and attempted to distribute the ball to initiate attacks.
Match observations
- gs-002The match was a dynamic contest with both teams creating numerous scoring opportunities.
- gs-002South Korea displayed strong character, achieving a comeback victory after conceding first.
- gs-002Goalkeepers on both sides were instrumental, making crucial interventions throughout the game.
- gs-026The atmosphere among South African fans was vibrant and enthusiastic, with supporters singing, dancing, and waving flags. Despite the 1-1 draw against Czechia, a strong sense of national pride and optimism was evident. Fans expressed excitement about the experience and hope for improved future performances. The collective celebration highlighted the joy of supporting their team, regardless of the outcome.
- gs-026The match began with an electrifying atmosphere at the Atlanta Stadium, marking day one of the FIFA World Cup 2026.
- gs-026Both teams started cautiously, feeling each other out, but the Czech Republic showed early intent with several attacking forays.
Statistical profile
Counter AttackerAttack
Defence
GK: Matěj Kovář
Set pieces
Style
Squad
Workload class: low
Attack and defence ratings from the model; style metrics from recent international matches; penalty rates via Bayesian estimation; goalkeeper rating from shot-prevention data. Rank is out of 48 tournament teams.
Where goals come from
Phase of play · scored & conceded
- Open play
- Set piece
- Counter
- Penalty
Share of goals by how the chance began, across 8 matches (Euro2020,Euro2024). Shoot-out kicks are excluded. Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Group-stage matchups
Probabilities from the calibrated ensemble model. xG from the Dixon–Coles fit. See each fixture page for full analysis.
Rating & probability history
12 snapshots · 2026-05-22 → 2026-06-24Czech Republic trajectory: 12 snapshots between 2026-05-22 and 2026-06-24 (33 days). Elo moved from 1726.0 to 1726.0 (0). Tournament-winner probability moved from 0.1% to 0.3% (+0.2pp).
Each point is one model build. The shaded band is the bootstrap 90% credible interval around the tournament-winner probability.
Recent form (10 matches)
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | HDenmark | 2–2 | D | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2026-03-26 | HRepublic of Ireland | 2–2 | D | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-11-17 | HGibraltar | 6–0 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-11-13 | HSan Marino | 1–0 | W | Friendly |
| 2025-10-12 | AFaroe Islands | 1–2 | L | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-10-09 | HCroatia | 0–0 | D | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-09-08 | HSaudi Arabia | 1–1 | D | Friendly |
| 2025-09-05 | AMontenegro | 2–0 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-06-09 | ACroatia | 1–5 | L | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-06-06 | HMontenegro | 2–0 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
martj42 international results (CC0) · last 10 matches · ~2 years.
Head-to-head vs group opponents
| Opponent | Meetings | W-D-L | Last meeting |
|---|---|---|---|
| South Korea | 4 | 1-1-2 | 2026 — Loss (1–2) · FIFA World Cup |
| South Africa | 2 | 0-2-0 | 2026 — Draw (1–1) · FIFA World Cup |
| Mexico | 1 | 1-0-0 | 2000 — Win (2–1) · Lunar New Year Cup |
All meetings via the martj42 international results dataset.
Major tournaments — most recent appearance
| Tournament | Year | Finish | W-D-L | Since then |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UEFA Euro | 2024 | Group stage | 0-1-2 |
|
| FIFA World Cup | 2006 | Group stage | 1-0-2 |
|
Source: FIFA archives. Penalty outcomes resolved to W/L.
Most similar past team-tournaments
Closest comparable teams from past major tournaments (1990-2024), by squad strength, group draw, and recent form. Shown for context, not a prediction.
Belgium · World Cup 1994
Exited at the round of 16
Comparable pre-tournament strength (Elo 1774) and group draw.
Bulgaria · World Cup 1998
Exited at the group stage
Switzerland · World Cup 2006
Exited at the round of 16
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