Forecast vs result · Group B · Matchday 1

Canada vs Bosnia and Herzegovina

2026-06-12

Post-match calibration

1 – 1
Draw

Pre-match probability vs realised outcome

  • Canada win
    57.9%
  • Draw· realised
    24.5%
  • Bosnia and Herzegovina win
    17.6%
Brier score
0.936
Log loss
1.407
xG (final / predicted)
1.25 / 1.38 · Canada
0.98 / 0.92 · Bosnia and Herzegovina
P(realised outcome)
24.5%

Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.

Against the forecastThe model rated this outcome at 24.5%.

Key moments

21'⚽
Goal

J. Lukic (Bosnia and Herzegovina)

S. Kolasinac

78'⚽
Goal

C. Larin (Canada)

P. David

Match statistics

CanadaBOS
61%
Possession
39%
13
Shots
8
4
On target
3
1.25
xG
0.98
9
Corners
4
10
Fouls
20
2
Yellows
3

Scoreline prediction

The actual scoreline (1–1) was the model's #1 most likely outcome at 13.3%.

#11–113.3%
#21–013.3%
#30–010.6%
#42–09.5%
#52–18.8%

Team performance

CanadaC+
Passing
In line5/10
Pressing / defence
Below profile4/10
Set pieces
Below profile3/10
Chance creation
In line7/10
Shot quality
In line6/10
Cohesion
In line6/10
Individual quality
Above profile8/10

The team showed resilience to secure a draw after conceding first, but defensive lapses remain a concern.

Bosnia and HerzegovinaB-
Passing
In line5/10
Pressing / defence
In line7/10
Set pieces
In line8/10
Chance creation
In line4/10
Shot quality
In line6/10
Cohesion
In line6/10
Individual quality
In line8/10

The team showed resilience to secure an away draw against a pressing opponent, despite being under significant defensive pressure.

Video analysis: player performance

Per-player ratings and event breakdowns from official highlights analysis. Tap a player to see their full match timeline.

Canada
8
Cyle Larin76'–351'

Came off the bench to score the crucial equalizing goal, making a significant impact.

2goals1fouls won
▼

Match timeline

76'Canada's Oluwaseyi was replaced by Larin.
79'Canada's Larin scored the equalising goal with a shot from inside the box.
89'Bosnia's Katić received a yellow card for a foul on Canada's Larin.
339'Canada makes a substitution: player #12 Oluwaseyi is replaced by player #9 Larin.
351'Canada equalises with a superb turn and shot from inside the penalty area, finding the top corner of the net.
6
Liam Millar1'–61'

Committed a foul and was substituted without making a significant impact.

1fouls won1fouls
▼

Match timeline

1'Canada's Millar committed a foul on Bosnia's Kolašinac.
3'Bosnia's Kolašinac received a yellow card for a foul on Canada's Millar.
61'Canada's Millar was replaced by Promise David.
6
Jonathan David28'–28'

Drew a yellow card for an opponent but had no other significant actions.

1fouls won
▼

Match timeline

28'Bosnia's Muharemović received a yellow card for a foul on Canada's David.
6
Derek Cornelius45'–45'

Drew a yellow card for an opponent but had no other significant actions.

1fouls won
▼

Match timeline

45'Bosnia's Demirović received a yellow card for a foul on Canada's Cornelius.
6
Tajon Buchanan47'–47'

Drew a yellow card for an opponent but had no other significant actions.

1fouls won
▼

Match timeline

47'Bosnia's Dedić received a yellow card for a foul on Canada's Buchanan.
6
Promise David61'–61'

Came on as a substitute but had no specific actions mentioned.

▼

Match timeline

61'Canada's Millar was replaced by Promise David.
6
Tani Oluwaseyi76'–339'

Played for a significant period before being substituted without notable distinction.

▼

Match timeline

76'Canada's Oluwaseyi was replaced by Larin.
339'Canada makes a substitution: player #12 Oluwaseyi is replaced by player #9 Larin.
6
Stephen Eustáquio90'–90'

Played for most of the match before being substituted without notable distinction.

▼

Match timeline

90'Canada's Eustáquio was replaced by Osorio.
6
Jonathan Osorio90'–90'

Came on as a late substitute but had no specific actions mentioned.

▼

Match timeline

90'Canada's Eustáquio was replaced by Osorio.
Bosnia and Herzegovina
8
Jovo Lukić21'–21'

Scored Bosnia's opening goal with a header from a corner.

1goals
▼

Match timeline

21'Bosnia's Lukić scored with a header from a flick-on at the near post.
8
Nikola Vasilj

Made several crucial saves throughout the match, keeping his team in contention.

1saves
▼

Match timeline

7
Sead Kolašinac1'–3'

Made an astonishing goal-line clearance but received an early yellow card.

2blocks1fouls won1 yellow
▼

Match timeline

1'Canada's Millar committed a foul on Bosnia's Kolašinac.
3'Bosnia's Kolašinac received a yellow card for a foul on Canada's Millar.
7
Tarik Muharemović28'–28'

Made a crucial defensive block but also received a yellow card for a foul.

1blocks1 yellow
▼

Match timeline

28'Bosnia's Muharemović received a yellow card for a foul on Canada's David.
7
Nikola Katić89'–89'

Made a key defensive block but also received a yellow card for a foul.

1blocks1 yellow
▼

Match timeline

89'Bosnia's Katić received a yellow card for a foul on Canada's Larin.
6
Amar Memić2'–2'

Took a free-kick that went over the bar, with no other notable contributions.

1shots
▼

Match timeline

2'Bosnia's Memić shot over the bar from a free-kick.
6
Esmir Bajraktarević74'–74'

Played for a significant period before being substituted without notable distinction.

▼

Match timeline

74'Bosnia's Bajraktarević was replaced by Sunjić.
6
Ivan Šunjić74'–74'

Came on as a substitute but had no specific actions mentioned.

▼

Match timeline

74'Bosnia's Bajraktarević was replaced by Sunjić.
5
Ermedin Demirović45'–45'

Received a yellow card for a foul without any noted positive contributions.

1 yellow
▼

Match timeline

45'Bosnia's Demirović received a yellow card for a foul on Canada's Cornelius.
5
Amar Dedić47'–47'

Received a yellow card for a foul without any noted positive contributions.

1 yellow
▼

Match timeline

47'Bosnia's Dedić received a yellow card for a foul on Canada's Buchanan.

Match observations

  • The match was a closely contested affair, with both teams creating scoring opportunities.
  • Bosnia and Herzegovina took the lead from a set-piece header in the first half.
  • Canada pressed for an equaliser, eventually finding it through a substitute in the second half.
← Pre-match forecastLive tracker →

How to read this. A single match's Brier and log-loss are noisy. What matters is how the forecast calibrates across many matches. This per-fixture recap is one row of the aggregate calibration scoreboard at /docs/calibration/. The pre-match probability shown here is the one frozen before kickoff; it was never re-priced during play.