Group J · Matchday 2

Full-timeFT
Algeria
2:1
Jordan

The day's strongest pairing by combined FIFA ranking is free for everyone: full forecast and full live tracker. Every other match needs a Standard Pass. See the Pass

Live descriptive stats

AlgeriaJordan
Expected goals (xG) — predicted vs actual
predictedactualdiff
Algeria1.981.81−0.17
Jordan0.760.65−0.11

Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.

Shots
17
8
Shots on target
8
4
Possession (%)
72%
28%
Corners
10
1
Fouls
6
11
Yellow cards
1
1
Red cards
0
0

Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.

Analysis

How it plays out

Algeria will dominate the ball. Whether Jordan can stay organised through long spells without it determines if Algeria's possession converts to chances. Algeria will expect to hold 68% possession. Jordan need their shape to stay compact without the ball and be clinical when they win it back.

What decides it

Algeria's possession game (68% avg) requires patience in the final third and quick ball recovery when they lose it. Amine Gouiri's 8.8% scoring probability is the highest in this fixture. Containing that output is Jordan's primary defensive task.

Off the pitch

No major off-pitch asymmetries. This one is decided by the football.

The angle

Likely the last World Cup for Riyad Mahrez. Tournament experience at this level is hard to quantify but hard to replace.

Latest news & match context

Team news

No recent headlines for Algeria or Jordan.

Match conditions
Stage:
Group J · Matchday 2
Date:
22 Jun
Beyond the model

Ranked by likely importance. None of these feed the forecast: the probabilities rest on team strength, venue conditions and the style matchup.

  1. 1.Squad availability: 1 carrying a fitness doubt across the two squads, 1 of them projected starters. The forecast does not adjust for who is missing: its lineup channel currently contributes zero, so this is context the probabilities do not include.
Availability

Algeria

Algeria: 1 carrying a fitness doubt.

  • DoubtAnthony Mandrea, the first-choice goalkeeper, is recovering from Shoulder injury and is a fitness watch item; if unavailable the projected XI shifts.

Jordan

Jordan come in at close to full strength.

What it means

Availability runs in Jordan's favour here: Algeria are managing a fitness concern over Anthony Mandrea, while Jordan's projected XI looks intact.

Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.

LiveDescriptive stats and the delayed live win probability · updates every ~30 seconds

Chance-creation momentum

rolling 10-minute xG · delayed
Algeria (above the line)Jordan (below)
15'30'HT60'75'Goal, 36' · N. Al RashdanGoal, 69' · N. BenboualiGoal, 82' · A. Gouiri

Expected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, Algeria minus Jordan: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.

Live commentary & events

AlgeriaJordan
  • 36'GoalN. Al Rashdan· M. TamariN. Al Rashdan scores for Jordan.
  • Yellow cardR. Zerrouki· FoulR. Zerrouki is booked — Foul.44'
  • SubstitutionR. Zerrouki· N. BentalebAlgeria change: N. Bentaleb.46'
  • SubstitutionH. Boudaoui· N. BenboualiAlgeria change: N. Benbouali.46'
  • 64'Yellow cardH. Abu Dahab· HoldingH. Abu Dahab is booked — Holding.
  • GoalN. Benbouali· R. MahrezN. Benbouali scores for Algeria.69'
  • SubstitutionR. Mahrez· A. Hadj MoussaAlgeria change: A. Hadj Moussa.76'
  • 76'SubstitutionM. Al Mardi· O. Al FakhouriJordan change: O. Al Fakhouri.
  • GoalA. GouiriA. Gouiri scores for Algeria.82'
  • 84'SubstitutionM. Tamari· A. AzaizehJordan change: A. Azaizeh.
  • 85'SubstitutionM. Abu Taha· M. Abu HasheeshJordan change: M. Abu Hasheesh.
  • SubstitutionR. Ait-Nouri· J. HadjamAlgeria change: J. Hadjam.85'
  • SubstitutionA. Gouiri· Z. BelaidAlgeria change: Z. Belaid.86'
  • 90'+1SubstitutionH. Abu Dahab· S. ObaidJordan change: S. Obaid.
  • 90'+2SubstitutionA. Olwan· ShararhJordan change: Shararh.

Player involvement

Algeria

N. Benbouali46' Off · 69' Goal
A. Gouiri82' Goal · 86' On
AR. Mahrez69' Assist · 76' On
R. Zerrouki44' Yellow card · 46' On

Jordan

N. Al Rashdan36' Goal
AM. Tamari36' Assist · 84' On
H. Abu Dahab64' Yellow card · 90'+1 On
Pre-match modelFrozen before kickoff

Pre-match forecast

Algeria win
69.2%
Draw
21.6%
Jordan win
9.3%
Algeria
1.98
expected
goals
Jordan
0.76

The published probability for this fixture is fixed at lineup confirmation (≈1 hour before kickoff) and never updates afterwards. It is the number the post-match recap holds accountable. The live win probability in the Live section is a separate, delayed, descriptive estimate; it does not replace the published forecast.

Most likely scorelines

  • 2–0
    12.6%
  • 1–0
    12.2%
  • 1–1
    10.3%
  • 2–1
    9.6%
  • 3–0
    8.3%

From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.

How the live probability works. The published pre-match forecast is frozen at the T-1h lineup-confirmation pass and never changes after kickoff; the post-match recap scores that frozen number against the result. The live win probability shown during play is the same model re-read against the current score and time remaining. It refreshes about once a minute, is always delayed, and is a descriptive research figure, not a betting product or a price of any kind. See /docs/methodology/ for the full framing.