Group J · Matchday 2
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Live descriptive stats
Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.
Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.
Analysis
How it plays out
Algeria will dominate the ball. Whether Jordan can stay organised through long spells without it determines if Algeria's possession converts to chances. Algeria will expect to hold 68% possession. Jordan need their shape to stay compact without the ball and be clinical when they win it back.
What decides it
Algeria's possession game (68% avg) requires patience in the final third and quick ball recovery when they lose it. Amine Gouiri's 8.8% scoring probability is the highest in this fixture. Containing that output is Jordan's primary defensive task.
Off the pitch
No major off-pitch asymmetries. This one is decided by the football.
The angle
Likely the last World Cup for Riyad Mahrez. Tournament experience at this level is hard to quantify but hard to replace.
Latest news & match context
- Stage:
- Group J · Matchday 2
- Date:
- 22 Jun
Ranked by likely importance. None of these feed the forecast: the probabilities rest on team strength, venue conditions and the style matchup.
- 1.Squad availability: 1 carrying a fitness doubt across the two squads, 1 of them projected starters. The forecast does not adjust for who is missing: its lineup channel currently contributes zero, so this is context the probabilities do not include.
Algeria
Algeria: 1 carrying a fitness doubt.
- DoubtAnthony Mandrea, the first-choice goalkeeper, is recovering from Shoulder injury and is a fitness watch item; if unavailable the projected XI shifts.
Jordan
Jordan come in at close to full strength.
Availability runs in Jordan's favour here: Algeria are managing a fitness concern over Anthony Mandrea, while Jordan's projected XI looks intact.
Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.
Chance-creation momentum
rolling 10-minute xG · delayedExpected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, Algeria minus Jordan: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.
Live commentary & events
- 36'GoalN. Al Rashdan· M. TamariN. Al Rashdan scores for Jordan.
- Yellow cardR. Zerrouki· FoulR. Zerrouki is booked — Foul.44'
- SubstitutionR. Zerrouki· N. BentalebAlgeria change: N. Bentaleb.46'
- SubstitutionH. Boudaoui· N. BenboualiAlgeria change: N. Benbouali.46'
- 64'Yellow cardH. Abu Dahab· HoldingH. Abu Dahab is booked — Holding.
- GoalN. Benbouali· R. MahrezN. Benbouali scores for Algeria.69'
- SubstitutionR. Mahrez· A. Hadj MoussaAlgeria change: A. Hadj Moussa.76'
- 76'SubstitutionM. Al Mardi· O. Al FakhouriJordan change: O. Al Fakhouri.
- GoalA. GouiriA. Gouiri scores for Algeria.82'
- 84'SubstitutionM. Tamari· A. AzaizehJordan change: A. Azaizeh.
- 85'SubstitutionM. Abu Taha· M. Abu HasheeshJordan change: M. Abu Hasheesh.
- SubstitutionR. Ait-Nouri· J. HadjamAlgeria change: J. Hadjam.85'
- SubstitutionA. Gouiri· Z. BelaidAlgeria change: Z. Belaid.86'
- 90'+1SubstitutionH. Abu Dahab· S. ObaidJordan change: S. Obaid.
- 90'+2SubstitutionA. Olwan· ShararhJordan change: Shararh.
Player involvement
Algeria
Jordan
Pre-match forecast
goals
Die veröffentlichte Wahrscheinlichkeit für dieses Spiel wird bei der Aufstellungsbestätigung (≈1 Stunde vor Anpfiff) festgeschrieben und ändert sich danach nicht mehr. An dieser Zahl wird der Rückblick nach Abpfiff gemessen. Die Live-Siegwahrscheinlichkeit im Live-Bereich ist eine separate, verzögerte, beschreibende Schätzung; sie ersetzt die veröffentlichte Prognose nicht.
Most likely scorelines
- 2–012.6%
- 1–012.2%
- 1–110.3%
- 2–19.6%
- 3–08.3%
From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.