Group J · Matchday 2

Full-timeFT
Algeria
2:1
Jordan

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Live descriptive stats

AlgeriaJordan
Expected goals (xG) — predicted vs actual
predictedactualdiff
Algeria1.981.81−0.17
Jordan0.760.65−0.11

Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.

Shots
17
8
Shots on target
8
4
Possession (%)
72%
28%
Corners
10
1
Fouls
6
11
Yellow cards
1
1
Red cards
0
0

Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.

Analysis

How it plays out

Algeria will dominate the ball. Whether Jordan can stay organised through long spells without it determines if Algeria's possession converts to chances. Algeria will expect to hold 68% possession. Jordan need their shape to stay compact without the ball and be clinical when they win it back.

What decides it

Algeria's possession game (68% avg) requires patience in the final third and quick ball recovery when they lose it. Amine Gouiri's 8.8% scoring probability is the highest in this fixture. Containing that output is Jordan's primary defensive task.

Off the pitch

No major off-pitch asymmetries. This one is decided by the football.

The angle

Likely the last World Cup for Riyad Mahrez. Tournament experience at this level is hard to quantify but hard to replace.

Latest news & match context

Team news
Match conditions
Stage:
Group J · Matchday 2
Date:
22 Jun
Beyond the model

Ranked by likely importance. None of these feed the forecast: the probabilities rest on team strength, venue conditions and the style matchup.

  1. 1.Squad availability: 1 carrying a fitness doubt across the two squads, 1 of them projected starters. The forecast does not adjust for who is missing: its lineup channel currently contributes zero, so this is context the probabilities do not include.
Availability

Algeria

Algeria: 1 carrying a fitness doubt.

  • DoubtAnthony Mandrea, the first-choice goalkeeper, is recovering from Shoulder injury and is a fitness watch item; if unavailable the projected XI shifts.

Jordan

Jordan come in at close to full strength.

What it means

Availability runs in Jordan's favour here: Algeria are managing a fitness concern over Anthony Mandrea, while Jordan's projected XI looks intact.

Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.

En directStatistiques descriptives et probabilité de victoire en direct (différée) · mise à jour toutes les ~30 secondes

Chance-creation momentum

rolling 10-minute xG · delayed
Algeria (above the line)Jordan (below)
15'30'HT60'75'Goal, 36' · N. Al RashdanGoal, 69' · N. BenboualiGoal, 82' · A. Gouiri

Expected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, Algeria minus Jordan: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.

Live commentary & events

AlgeriaJordan
  • 36'GoalN. Al Rashdan· M. TamariN. Al Rashdan scores for Jordan.
  • Yellow cardR. Zerrouki· FoulR. Zerrouki is booked — Foul.44'
  • SubstitutionR. Zerrouki· N. BentalebAlgeria change: N. Bentaleb.46'
  • SubstitutionH. Boudaoui· N. BenboualiAlgeria change: N. Benbouali.46'
  • 64'Yellow cardH. Abu Dahab· HoldingH. Abu Dahab is booked — Holding.
  • GoalN. Benbouali· R. MahrezN. Benbouali scores for Algeria.69'
  • SubstitutionR. Mahrez· A. Hadj MoussaAlgeria change: A. Hadj Moussa.76'
  • 76'SubstitutionM. Al Mardi· O. Al FakhouriJordan change: O. Al Fakhouri.
  • GoalA. GouiriA. Gouiri scores for Algeria.82'
  • 84'SubstitutionM. Tamari· A. AzaizehJordan change: A. Azaizeh.
  • 85'SubstitutionM. Abu Taha· M. Abu HasheeshJordan change: M. Abu Hasheesh.
  • SubstitutionR. Ait-Nouri· J. HadjamAlgeria change: J. Hadjam.85'
  • SubstitutionA. Gouiri· Z. BelaidAlgeria change: Z. Belaid.86'
  • 90'+1SubstitutionH. Abu Dahab· S. ObaidJordan change: S. Obaid.
  • 90'+2SubstitutionA. Olwan· ShararhJordan change: Shararh.

Player involvement

Algeria

N. Benbouali46' Off · 69' Goal
A. Gouiri82' Goal · 86' On
AR. Mahrez69' Assist · 76' On
R. Zerrouki44' Yellow card · 46' On

Jordan

N. Al Rashdan36' Goal
AM. Tamari36' Assist · 84' On
H. Abu Dahab64' Yellow card · 90'+1 On
Modèle pré-matchFigé avant le coup d'envoi

Pre-match forecast

Algeria win
69.3%
Draw
21.5%
Jordan win
9.3%
Algeria
1.98
expected
goals
Jordan
0.76

La probabilité publiée pour ce match est fixée à la confirmation des compositions (≈1 heure avant le coup d'envoi) et ne change plus ensuite. C'est le chiffre dont le bilan d'après-match rend compte. La probabilité de victoire en direct de la section Live est une estimation distincte, différée et descriptive ; elle ne remplace pas la prévision publiée.

Most likely scorelines

  • 2–0
    12.6%
  • 1–0
    12.2%
  • 1–1
    10.3%
  • 2–1
    9.6%
  • 3–0
    8.3%

From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.

Comment fonctionne la probabilité en direct. La prévision d'avant-match publiée est figée au verrouillage des compositions (T-1h) et ne change plus après le coup d'envoi ; le bilan d'après-match évalue ce chiffre figé face au résultat. La probabilité de victoire en direct affichée pendant le match est le même modèle, relu selon le score et le temps restant. Elle se rafraîchit environ une fois par minute, est toujours différée, et reste une mesure descriptive de recherche : ni un produit de pari, ni un prix d'aucune sorte. Voir /docs/methodology/ pour le cadre complet.