Group J · Matchday 2
← Previsão pré-jogoLive score, descriptive in-match stats, and a post-match calibration recap appear here once the match kicks off.
Match-outcome probability
- Algeria win50.9%
- Draw24.4%
- Jordan win24.7%
Analysis
The model gives Algeria a moderate advantage at 50.9% versus 24.7% for Jordan (draw 24.4%). The Elo ratings are within 53 points of each other — a tight matchup on recent form. A Group J fixture with advance probabilities of 67.7% for Algeria and 21.5% for Jordan.
Tactical matchup
Algeria (possession dominant) meet Jordan (balanced) — contrasting tactical identities that should shape the contest. Algeria typically dominate possession (68%) compared to Jordan's 37% — the ball-control asymmetry could define this match.
Key battlegrounds
Algeria need to control tempo through midfield — their possession-based approach depends on dictating rhythm. The individual battle features Amine Gouiri (P(scores) 8.9%) against Ahmad Ersan (4.0%) — their impact could prove decisive.
Situational factors
No major situational asymmetries — both sides enter on a broadly level playing field outside the tactical matchup.
Match storyline
For Riyad Mahrez, this may be among the final World Cup fixtures — experience and composure on the biggest stage.
Key numbers
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for Algeria or Jordan.
- Stage:
- Group J · Matchday 2
Both teams face key personnel doubts ahead of this match. Unlock the full breakdown with a Pass.
Calibração pós-jogo é gratuita. Quando este jogo terminar, a retrospectiva de previsão vs resultado — probabilidade pré-jogo vs resultado realizado, Brier score, log loss e xG final vs previsto — será publicada na página de retrospectiva, aberta para todos.
Standard Pass
That's the headline. The full forecast goes deeper.
The same Dixon-Coles fit behind the probabilities above also produces the breakdowns below — for this match and all 104.
Scoreline distribution
Half-time / full-time
Four models compared
Most likely scorers
Standard Pass
See exactly how Algeria v Jordan plays out
The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.
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