Group J · Matchday 2
← Maç öncesi tahminLive score, descriptive in-match stats, and a post-match calibration recap appear here once the match kicks off.
Match-outcome probability
- Algeria win50.9%
- Draw24.4%
- Jordan win24.7%
Analysis
The model gives Algeria a moderate advantage at 50.9% versus 24.7% for Jordan (draw 24.4%). The Elo ratings are within 53 points of each other — a tight matchup on recent form. A Group J fixture with advance probabilities of 67.7% for Algeria and 21.5% for Jordan.
Tactical matchup
Algeria (possession dominant) meet Jordan (balanced) — contrasting tactical identities that should shape the contest. Algeria typically dominate possession (68%) compared to Jordan's 37% — the ball-control asymmetry could define this match.
Key battlegrounds
Algeria need to control tempo through midfield — their possession-based approach depends on dictating rhythm. The individual battle features Amine Gouiri (P(scores) 8.9%) against Ahmad Ersan (4.0%) — their impact could prove decisive.
Situational factors
No major situational asymmetries — both sides enter on a broadly level playing field outside the tactical matchup.
Match storyline
For Riyad Mahrez, this may be among the final World Cup fixtures — experience and composure on the biggest stage.
Key numbers
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for Algeria or Jordan.
- Stage:
- Group J · Matchday 2
Both teams face key personnel doubts ahead of this match. Unlock the full breakdown with a Pass.
Maç sonu kalibrasyonu ücretsizdir. Bu maç bittiğinde, tahmin ve sonuç özeti (maç öncesi olasılık ile gerçekleşen sonuç karşılaştırması, Brier score, log loss ve gerçekleşen xG ile tahmini xG) şu sayfada yayımlanır: özet sayfası, herkes için açık.
Standard Pass
That's the headline. The full forecast goes deeper.
The same Dixon-Coles fit behind the probabilities above also produces the breakdowns below — for this match and all 104.
Scoreline distribution
Half-time / full-time
Four models compared
Most likely scorers
Standard Pass
See exactly how Algeria v Jordan plays out
The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.
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