Group J · Matchday 2

← توقع ما قبل المباراة
Scheduled
Algeria
–:–
Jordan

Live score, descriptive in-match stats, and a post-match calibration recap appear here once the match kicks off.

Match-outcome probability

  • Algeria win
    50.9%
  • Draw
    24.4%
  • Jordan win
    24.7%
CalibrationBacktested to a 0.572 Brier score across 987 out-of-sample major-tournament matches (2014–2024): lower is better, and a no-skill 1-in-3 guess scores 0.667. In plain terms, outcomes the model rated 70% likely happened about 70% of the time. Live scoring begins 2026-06-11. See the scoreboard →

Analysis

The model gives Algeria a moderate advantage at 50.9% versus 24.7% for Jordan (draw 24.4%). The Elo ratings are within 53 points of each other — a tight matchup on recent form. A Group J fixture with advance probabilities of 67.7% for Algeria and 21.5% for Jordan.

Tactical matchup

Algeria (possession dominant) meet Jordan (balanced) — contrasting tactical identities that should shape the contest. Algeria typically dominate possession (68%) compared to Jordan's 37% — the ball-control asymmetry could define this match.

Key battlegrounds

Algeria need to control tempo through midfield — their possession-based approach depends on dictating rhythm. The individual battle features Amine Gouiri (P(scores) 8.9%) against Ahmad Ersan (4.0%) — their impact could prove decisive.

Situational factors

No major situational asymmetries — both sides enter on a broadly level playing field outside the tactical matchup.

Match storyline

For Riyad Mahrez, this may be among the final World Cup fixtures — experience and composure on the biggest stage.

Key numbers

50.9% / 24.4% / 24.7%H / D / ACalibrated ensemble probability
+53Elo differentialAlgeria 1743 vs Jordan 1690
1.72 – 0.86Expected goals (H – A)Dixon-Coles per-team rates
1-0 (12.5%)Modal scorelineMost likely exact full-time result
48.0%Both teams scoreP(both sides find the net)
8.9%P(goal) — Amine GouiriHighest anytime-scorer probability in fixture

Latest news & match context

Team news

No recent headlines for Algeria or Jordan.

Match conditions
Stage:
Group J · Matchday 2

Both teams face key personnel doubts ahead of this match. Unlock the full breakdown with a Pass.

معايرة ما بعد المباراة مجانية. عند انتهاء هذه المباراة، يُنشر ملخص التوقعات مقابل النتيجة — الاحتمال قبل المباراة مقابل النتيجة الفعلية، وBrier score، وlog loss، وxG النهائي مقابل المتوقع — في صفحة الملخص، متاحة للجميع.

Standard Pass

That's the headline. The full forecast goes deeper.

The same Dixon-Coles fit behind the probabilities above also produces the breakdowns below — for this match and all 104.

Scoreline distribution

Half-time / full-time

Four models compared

Most likely scorers

Standard Pass

See exactly how Algeria v Jordan plays out

The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.

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كيف تعمل الاحتمالية المباشرة. التوقع المنشور قبل المباراة يُجمَّد عند قفل التشكيلة (T-1h) ولا يتغير بعد ضربة البداية؛ وتقيس المراجعة بعد المباراة هذا الرقم المجمَّد مقابل النتيجة. احتمالية الفوز المباشرة المعروضة أثناء اللعب هي النموذج نفسه معاد القراءة وفق النتيجة الحالية والوقت المتبقي. تتحدَّث مرة كل دقيقة تقريبًا، ومتأخرة دائمًا، وهي رقم بحثي وصفي، وليست منتجًا للمقامرة ولا سعرًا من أي نوع. انظر /docs/methodology/ للإطار الكامل.