Group J · Matchday 2

Full-timeFT
Algeria
2:1
Jordan

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Live descriptive stats

AlgeriaJordan
Expected goals (xG) — predicted vs actual
predictedactualdiff
Algeria1.981.81−0.17
Jordan0.760.65−0.11

Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.

Shots
17
8
Shots on target
8
4
Possession (%)
72%
28%
Corners
10
1
Fouls
6
11
Yellow cards
1
1
Red cards
0
0

Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.

Analysis

How it plays out

Algeria will dominate the ball. Whether Jordan can stay organised through long spells without it determines if Algeria's possession converts to chances. Algeria will expect to hold 68% possession. Jordan need their shape to stay compact without the ball and be clinical when they win it back.

What decides it

Algeria's possession game (68% avg) requires patience in the final third and quick ball recovery when they lose it. Amine Gouiri's 8.8% scoring probability is the highest in this fixture. Containing that output is Jordan's primary defensive task.

Off the pitch

No major off-pitch asymmetries. This one is decided by the football.

The angle

Likely the last World Cup for Riyad Mahrez. Tournament experience at this level is hard to quantify but hard to replace.

Latest news & match context

Team news
Match conditions
Stage:
Group J · Matchday 2
Date:
22 Jun
Beyond the model

Ranked by likely importance. None of these feed the forecast: the probabilities rest on team strength, venue conditions and the style matchup.

  1. 1.Squad availability: 1 carrying a fitness doubt across the two squads, 1 of them projected starters. The forecast does not adjust for who is missing: its lineup channel currently contributes zero, so this is context the probabilities do not include.
Availability

Algeria

Algeria: 1 carrying a fitness doubt.

  • DoubtAnthony Mandrea, the first-choice goalkeeper, is recovering from Shoulder injury and is a fitness watch item; if unavailable the projected XI shifts.

Jordan

Jordan come in at close to full strength.

What it means

Availability runs in Jordan's favour here: Algeria are managing a fitness concern over Anthony Mandrea, while Jordan's projected XI looks intact.

Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.

En vivoEstadísticas descriptivas y la probabilidad de victoria en vivo (con retraso) · se actualiza cada ~30 segundos

Chance-creation momentum

rolling 10-minute xG · delayed
Algeria (above the line)Jordan (below)
15'30'HT60'75'Goal, 36' · N. Al RashdanGoal, 69' · N. BenboualiGoal, 82' · A. Gouiri

Expected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, Algeria minus Jordan: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.

Live commentary & events

AlgeriaJordan
  • 36'GoalN. Al Rashdan· M. TamariN. Al Rashdan scores for Jordan.
  • Yellow cardR. Zerrouki· FoulR. Zerrouki is booked — Foul.44'
  • SubstitutionR. Zerrouki· N. BentalebAlgeria change: N. Bentaleb.46'
  • SubstitutionH. Boudaoui· N. BenboualiAlgeria change: N. Benbouali.46'
  • 64'Yellow cardH. Abu Dahab· HoldingH. Abu Dahab is booked — Holding.
  • GoalN. Benbouali· R. MahrezN. Benbouali scores for Algeria.69'
  • SubstitutionR. Mahrez· A. Hadj MoussaAlgeria change: A. Hadj Moussa.76'
  • 76'SubstitutionM. Al Mardi· O. Al FakhouriJordan change: O. Al Fakhouri.
  • GoalA. GouiriA. Gouiri scores for Algeria.82'
  • 84'SubstitutionM. Tamari· A. AzaizehJordan change: A. Azaizeh.
  • 85'SubstitutionM. Abu Taha· M. Abu HasheeshJordan change: M. Abu Hasheesh.
  • SubstitutionR. Ait-Nouri· J. HadjamAlgeria change: J. Hadjam.85'
  • SubstitutionA. Gouiri· Z. BelaidAlgeria change: Z. Belaid.86'
  • 90'+1SubstitutionH. Abu Dahab· S. ObaidJordan change: S. Obaid.
  • 90'+2SubstitutionA. Olwan· ShararhJordan change: Shararh.

Player involvement

Algeria

N. Benbouali46' Off · 69' Goal
A. Gouiri82' Goal · 86' On
AR. Mahrez69' Assist · 76' On
R. Zerrouki44' Yellow card · 46' On

Jordan

N. Al Rashdan36' Goal
AM. Tamari36' Assist · 84' On
H. Abu Dahab64' Yellow card · 90'+1 On
Modelo previo al partidoCongelado antes del saque inicial

Pre-match forecast

Algeria win
69.3%
Draw
21.5%
Jordan win
9.3%
Algeria
1.98
expected
goals
Jordan
0.76

La probabilidad publicada para este partido queda fijada al confirmarse las alineaciones (≈1 hora antes del inicio) y no se actualiza después. Es el número al que el repaso posterior pide cuentas. La probabilidad de victoria en vivo de la sección Live es una estimación separada, con retraso y descriptiva; no sustituye al pronóstico publicado.

Most likely scorelines

  • 2–0
    12.6%
  • 1–0
    12.2%
  • 1–1
    10.3%
  • 2–1
    9.6%
  • 3–0
    8.3%

From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.

Cómo funciona la probabilidad en vivo. El pronóstico previo publicado se congela en el cierre de alineaciones (T-1h) y no cambia tras el inicio; el repaso posterior evalúa ese número congelado frente al resultado. La probabilidad de victoria en vivo que se muestra durante el juego es el mismo modelo, releído según el marcador y el tiempo restante. Se actualiza más o menos una vez por minuto, siempre con retraso, y es una cifra descriptiva de investigación, no un producto de juego ni un precio de ningún tipo. Consulta /docs/methodology/ para el marco completo.