Forecast vs result · Group J · Matchday 2

Algeria vs Jordan

2026-06-22

The recap publishes at full time. Once this match finishes, this page shows how the frozen pre-match forecast below scored against the realised outcome: Brier score, log loss, and final xG vs predicted xG. Until then, follow it live on the live tracker.

Pre-match forecast

Algeria win
69.3%
Draw
21.5%
Jordan win
9.3%
Algeria
1.98
expected
goals
Jordan
0.76

Video analysis: player performance

Per-player ratings and event breakdowns from official highlights analysis. Tap a player to see their full match timeline.

Algeria
9
Zidane12'–610'

His exceptional goalkeeping performance was crucial in keeping Algeria in the match despite facing numerous shots.

10saves

Match timeline

12'Netherlands attack, shot from outside the box saved by the Algerian goalkeeper.
24'Netherlands' Gravenberch dribbles into the box and shoots, but the Algerian goalkeeper makes a stop.
59'Netherlands' Sommerville's shot from close range is denied by the Algerian goalkeeper.
113'Netherlands' Malen's shot from inside the box is stopped by the Algerian goalkeeper.
129'Netherlands' Gakpo's powerful shot from inside the area is parried away by the Algerian goalkeeper.
145'Netherlands' Reijnders' shot from outside the box is saved by the Algerian goalkeeper.
424'Netherlands' Malen's shot from inside the box is saved by the Algerian goalkeeper.
455'Netherlands' Reijnders' shot from inside the box is saved by the Algerian goalkeeper.
546'Netherlands' Kluivert's shot from outside the box is saved by the Algerian goalkeeper, and the subsequent rebound shot by Gakpo goes wide.
610'Netherlands' Gakpo's shot from inside the box is saved by the Algerian goalkeeper.
8
Benrahma617'–617'

Scored the decisive winning goal with a moment of individual brilliance.

1goals

Match timeline

617'Algeria's Benrahma scores with a powerful left-footed strike from inside the box.
8
Algeria #12

Scored a crucial equalizer for Algeria, showcasing excellent aerial ability.

7
Chaibi

Showed attacking intent and came very close to scoring, demonstrating his threat in the final third.

6
Moura212'–212'

Had a scoring opportunity from a corner but failed to convert.

1headers

Match timeline

212'Algeria's Moura heads wide from a corner kick.
6
Algeria #7

Was a prominent figure for Algeria throughout the match, indicating involvement but without specific impactful actions.

Jordan
8
Jordan #21

Scored the crucial opening goal for Jordan, giving his team an early lead.

6
Reijnders

Scored a disallowed goal and contributed to attacks with shots, but couldn't make a legal impact on the scoreboard.

6
Kluivert

Produced a powerful shot that tested the goalkeeper, demonstrating his offensive capabilities.

6
Jordan #10

Was an attacking presence for Jordan, actively seeking opportunities throughout the match.

5
Sommerville

Showed good attacking intent and got into scoring positions but lacked the clinical finish required.

5
Gakpo

Generated numerous shots and was involved in a disallowed goal, but ultimately failed to convert his chances.

4
Malen

Missed multiple clear-cut opportunities from inside the box, failing to convert despite good positioning.

Match observations

  • The match was a tightly contested affair with both teams creating numerous scoring opportunities.
  • The Netherlands dominated possession and generated a high volume of shots, but struggled with their finishing and were repeatedly denied by an outstanding goalkeeping performance from Algeria.
  • Algeria, despite fewer chances, remained dangerous on the counter-attack and ultimately secured a victory with a moment of individual brilliance.

How to read this. A single match's Brier and log-loss are noisy. What matters is how the forecast calibrates across many matches. This per-fixture recap is one row of the aggregate calibration scoreboard at /docs/calibration/. The pre-match probability shown here is the one frozen before kickoff; it was never re-priced during play.