Forecast vs result · Group K · Matchday 1

Uzbekistan vs Colombia

2026-06-17

The recap publishes at full time. Once this match finishes, this page shows how the frozen pre-match forecast below scored against the realised outcome: Brier score, log loss, and final xG vs predicted xG. Until then, follow it live on the live tracker.

Pre-match forecast

Uzbekistan win
4.3%
Draw
22.4%
Colombia win
73.3%
Uzbekistan
0.48
expected
goals
Colombia
1.88

Video analysis: player performance

Per-player ratings and event breakdowns from official highlights analysis. Tap a player to see their full match timeline.

Uzbekistan
7
Utkir Yusupov

Despite conceding three goals, he made several crucial saves that kept Uzbekistan in the game for extended periods.

Colombia
9
Luis Díaz4'–64'

Delivered a man-of-the-match performance, constantly threatening the opposition goal and scoring a crucial goal.

1goals1shots1on target1fouls won

Match timeline

4'Diaz fouled, winning a free-kick for Colombia.
16'Diaz hits the post after a good move.
64'Luis Diaz restores Colombia's lead, finishing from close range after a save.
8
Daniel Muñoz40'–40'

Scored a crucial opening goal with a well-taken volley, demonstrating excellent attacking instincts from his defensive role.

1goals

Match timeline

40'Daniel Muñoz scores for Colombia with a volley from close range.
7
Jaminton Campaz90'–90'

Made an immediate impact by scoring a late goal to seal the victory after coming on as a substitute.

1goals

Match timeline

90'Leandro Campaz scores for Colombia, tapping in a cross from the right.

Match observations

  • The match was played at Mexico City Stadium.
  • Uzbekistan were making their debut in the competition.
  • Colombia showed strong attacking intent throughout the match, particularly through Luis Diaz.

How to read this. A single match's Brier and log-loss are noisy. What matters is how the forecast calibrates across many matches. This per-fixture recap is one row of the aggregate calibration scoreboard at /docs/calibration/. The pre-match probability shown here is the one frozen before kickoff; it was never re-priced during play.