Forecast vs result · Group I · Matchday 1

France vs Senegal

2026-06-16

The recap publishes at full time. Once this match finishes, this page shows how the frozen pre-match forecast below scored against the realised outcome — Brier score, log loss, and final xG vs predicted xG. Until then, follow it live on the live tracker.

Pre-match forecast

France win
54.6%
Draw
27.2%
Senegal win
18.2%
France
1.39
expected
goals
Senegal
0.71
← Pre-match forecastLive tracker →

How to read this. A single match's Brier and log-loss are noisy — what matters is how the forecast calibrates across many matches. This per-fixture recap is one row of the aggregate calibration scoreboard at /docs/calibration/. The pre-match probability shown here is the one frozen before kickoff; it was never re-priced during play.