Pre-match projection. Probabilities are frozen approximately 6 hours before kickoff to provide a stable pre-match reference.

France vs Norway

2026 FIFA World Cup·Group I·Head-to-head

Snapshot · 2026-05-28

All-time head-to-head

Meetings
16
France W-D-L
7-4-5
Last meeting
2014Win (40)

All-time record from France's perspective. Counts every senior international meeting (friendlies and tournaments) in the martj42 dataset; penalty-shootout outcomes resolve knockout draws.

Model forecast

57.7%
Draw
23.9%
18.4%

The model's win, draw and win probabilities for this group-stage meeting. Full forecast — expected goals, scoreline distribution, and per-player scoring →

Frequently asked

What is the head-to-head record between France and Norway?
France and Norway have met 16 times. From France's perspective the all-time record is 7 wins, 4 draws and 5 losses. Their most recent meeting was a 2014 win (4–0) at the Friendly.
What does the model predict for France vs Norway?
OnThePitch's model rates France at 58% to win, with a 24% chance of a draw and 18% for Norway.
When do France and Norway play at the 2026 World Cup?
They meet in the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup in Group I. Venue and kick-off details appear on the match page once confirmed.

Other Group I matchups

How this is computed. Win/draw/ win probabilities come from a calibrated Dixon-Coles ensemble. See methodology.