DR Congo
Snapshot · 2026-06-24Model 1.0.0CAF·Group K·FIFA #—
Counter-attacking side.
- Rival
- Portugal (#6)
- Key
- Yoane Wissa (FW)
Final squad announced · DR Congo · 2026-05-30
Source: SB Nation ↗WC2026 results
Tournament outlook
Analysis
DR Congo carry a <0.1% probability of winning the tournament (38th of 48). Drawn in Group K alongside Portugal, Colombia, Uzbekistan, they are projected at 27.6% to advance to the knockout stage.
How they play
DR Congo under Sébastien Desabre play a counter attacker game with 46% possession. They apply moderate pressing intensity (PPDA 20.9) and move the ball forward quickly at 4.9 passes per attack. They favour high-quality chances (xG/shot 0.200, among the best in the field) and rely heavily on set pieces (20% of their xG).
Path to success
In Group K alongside Portugal, Colombia, Uzbekistan, DR Congo are projected at 27.6% to advance from the group stage. A competitive group-stage showing — taking points off higher-ranked opponents — would mark a successful campaign. The expanded 48-team format gives smaller federations more runway, and upsets in the group stage are a fixture of every World Cup.
What they must execute
DR Congo rely on defensive discipline and quick transitions — absorbing pressure and converting turnovers into attacking chances. Concentration and defensive organisation for full 90-minute stretches will determine whether the approach holds against top opposition.
Controversial take
The model's assessment of DR Congo broadly aligns with their FIFA ranking — no major disagreement between the two systems for this squad.
Key numbers
How they play
Style vs the 48-team field
Counter-attacking · style profile from 7 recent matches
What to watch: a quick, few-touch route to attack.
Percentiles position DR Congo against the 48-team field. Higher means more of that trait, not better or worse. Press is inverted (lower PPDA = higher press); width uses crossing rate as a proxy; tempo is open-play passes per minute of possession. Descriptive style analytics; does not feed the published probabilities.
Group K finish · DR Congo
Monte Carlo, 100,000 simsTop two advance to the round of 32; best 8 of 12 third-placed teams also qualify.
- 2.6%1st (group winner)Advances to R32
- 10.4%2nd (runner-up)Advances to R32
- 36.1%3rdAdvances only if among the best 8 of 12 third-placed teams
- 50.9%4thEliminated
Stage progression · DR Congo
, 100,000 sims- 32.5%AdvAdvance from group
- 9.4%R16Round of 16
- 3.0%QFQuarter-final
- 0.9%SFSemi-final
- 0.2%FFinal
- 0.1%WinWin the tournament
Likely knockout path · DR Congo
Monte Carlo, 10,000 simsThe squad
Confirmed squad
Model-predicted · snapshot 2026-05-28Roster confirmed by the federation's official squad announcement. The XI/bench split below is the model's composite-rating ordering, not the head coach's lineup.
★ likely first sub badge on the top-3 by first-sub score within each position group, plus a late-game impact rating where club per-90 stats are available.
▸How to read this squad— 4 columns explained
- Pos
- Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
- Caps
- Senior international appearances. Used by the model as a recency-weighted signal of how often the manager calls the player up.
- Stat
- Position-aware stat: career international goals for forwards; career international assists for midfielders (Transfermarkt); latest available Big-5 club season's total tackles for defenders (FBref); latest available Big-5 club season's save percentage for goalkeepers (FBref). Em-dash when no data is joined — most often for defenders and keepers at non-Big-5 clubs.
- Rating
- Composite rating (Model #4) — combines recent caps + goals, recent club xG and xAG per 90, position-relative quality, and call-up priors. Higher = the model thinks the player is more likely to start. Typically 0.9 (depth) to 2.5 (elite).
Selection driver — coloured chips show which input dominates a player's selection score. Caps-driven = selected mainly on international experience. Rating-driven = selected mainly on club performance quality. Jersey-boosted = jersey number from a recent squad snapshot lifted their score. Goals-driven = international goal record was the decisive factor. No chip when the score is a balanced blend.
Squad cohesion
Projected XI · club overlap
Low coverage: 5/11 of the projected XI have club-minutes rows in our ratings table. Numbers below are structurally suppressed and should be read alongside the resolved count, not in isolation.
- Pairwise club minutes
- 0.00%
- Share of the 55-pair × 3000-minute ceiling. Higher = more of the XI plays together at club level.
- Club concentration
- 0.200
- How concentrated the XI is across clubs. 0.091 = 11 different clubs · 1.000 = all the same club.
- Top-3 clubs share
- 60%
- 3 of 5 play for the three most common clubs in the XI.
Top clubs in projected XI
- Marseille1
- West Ham1
- Nantes1
Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Squad depth
Projected XI · replaceability
Most irreplaceable starters
- Meschak EliaAttacking midfieldLikely cover: no natural backupreplacement-level AM ~0.400.20gap to repl.
- Gaël KakutaAttacking midfieldLikely cover: no natural backupreplacement-level AM ~0.400.16gap to repl.
- Yoane WissaStrikerLikely cover: Simon Banza · 0.75Al Jazira0.14gap to repl.
Gap to repl. = how far this nation's rating at the position falls from the starter to his likely in-squad replacement (named above). Larger = harder to replace.
Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Group schedule
Group-stage schedule
| MD | Date | Opponent | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jun 17, 2026 | Portugal | Houston, United States |
| 2 | Jun 23, 2026 | Colombia | Zapopan, Mexico |
| 3 | Jun 27, 2026 | Uzbekistan | Atlanta, United States |
Head-to-head matchups
Storylines
Storylines
Updated 28 days agoGained 87 international Elo points over the last 12 months — current rating 1767.
Travels 38,411 km across 3 venues in the group stage — one of the longest itineraries in the field.
First World Cup as head coach, appointed 2022.
Conceded only 0.70 xG per match across 6 recent internationals — #7 of 35 in the field for defensive solidity.
Form & track record
Video analysis: DR Congo
Performance data from official highlights analysis across 1 match. 5 players observed, 7 events tracked.
Scored the crucial equalizer for Congo DR just before half-time and showed attacking threat with another shot.
1 goalPlayer ratings (5)
8Wissa1 app · 2 events1 goal1 shot8▼
Scored the crucial equalizer for Congo DR just before half-time and showed attacking threat with another shot.
7Bakambu1 app · 1 events1 shot7▼
Created a significant chance by hitting the post, demonstrating his attacking threat.
5Banza1 app · 2 events1 yellow5▼
Received a yellow card for a foul at the very end of the match.
5Mbemba1 app · 1 events1 yellow5▼
Received a yellow card for a foul, impacting his defensive rating.
5Moutoussamy1 app · 1 events1 yellow5▼
Received a yellow card for a foul, impacting his defensive rating.
Match observations
Statistical profile
Counter AttackerAttack
Defence
GK: Dimitry Bertaud
Set pieces
Style
Squad
Workload class: low
Attack and defence ratings from the model; style metrics from recent international matches; penalty rates via Bayesian estimation; goalkeeper rating from shot-prevention data. Rank is out of 48 tournament teams.
Where goals come from
Phase of play · scored & conceded
- Open play
- Set piece
- Counter
- Penalty
Share of goals by how the chance began, across 7 matches (AFCON2023). Shoot-out kicks are excluded. Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Group-stage matchups
Probabilities from the calibrated ensemble model. xG from the Dixon–Coles fit. See each fixture page for full analysis.
Rating & probability history
12 snapshots · 2026-05-22 → 2026-06-24DR Congo trajectory: 12 snapshots between 2026-05-22 and 2026-06-24 (33 days). Elo moved from 1655.0 to 1655.0 (0). Tournament-winner probability moved from <0.1% to 0.1% (0pp).
Each point is one model build. The shaded band is the bootstrap 90% credible interval around the tournament-winner probability.
Recent form (10 matches)
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | NJamaica | 1–0 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2026-03-25 | NBermuda | 2–0 | W | Friendly |
| 2026-01-06 | NAlgeria | 0–1 | L | African Cup of Nations |
| 2025-12-30 | NBotswana | 3–0 | W | African Cup of Nations |
| 2025-12-27 | NSenegal | 1–1 | D | African Cup of Nations |
| 2025-12-23 | NBenin | 1–0 | W | African Cup of Nations |
| 2025-11-16 | NNigeria | 1–1 | D | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-11-13 | NCameroon | 1–0 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-10-14 | HSudan | 1–0 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-10-10 | ATogo | 1–0 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
martj42 international results (CC0) · last 10 matches · ~2 years.
Head-to-head vs group opponents
| Opponent | Meetings | W-D-L | Last meeting |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colombia | 1 | 0-0-1 | 2026 — Loss (0–1) · FIFA World Cup |
| Portugal | 1 | 0-1-0 | 2026 — Draw (1–1) · FIFA World Cup |
| Uzbekistan | 0 | — | No prior meetings |
All meetings via the martj42 international results dataset.
Major tournaments — most recent appearance
| Tournament | Year | Finish | W-D-L | Since then |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| African Cup of Nations | 2026 | 1 matches | 0-0-1 |
|
| FIFA World Cup | 1974 | Group stage | 0-0-3 |
|
Source: FIFA archives. Penalty outcomes resolved to W/L.
Most similar past team-tournaments
Closest comparable teams from past major tournaments (1990-2024), by squad strength, group draw, and recent form. Shown for context, not a prediction.
Zimbabwe · Afcon 2004
Exited at the group stage
Comparable pre-tournament strength (Elo 1591) and group draw.
Zambia · Afcon 2010
Exited at the quarter-final
Zimbabwe · Afcon 2017
Exited at the group stage
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