Measured in public

7 Jul 2026

Every probability below was published before kickoff and locked. This page scores each one against what actually happened.

2 of 2 matches graded
0
Nailed it
High confidence, right result
1
Strong read
Gave the most probability to what happened
1
Expected
Result was within the range
0
Surprise
The model didn't see this coming

Day average: Within expectations

  • ArgentinavsEgypt
    GradedLocked 5 Jul
    3 – 2
    • Argentina · realised57.9%
    • Draw30.4%
    • Egypt11.6%
    Verdict
    Strong read

    Argentina 3–2 Egypt was the outcome the model rated most likely (57.9% before kickoff). The match scores a Brier of 0.283, better than the 0.667 no-skill mark.

  • SwitzerlandvsColombia
    GradedLocked 5 Jul
    0 – 0
    • Switzerland25.3%
    • Draw · realised28.0%
    • Colombia46.7%
    Verdict
    Within expectations

    Switzerland 0–0 Colombia was an outcome the model rated at 28.0% (28.0% before kickoff). The match scores a Brier of 0.800, worse than the 0.667 no-skill mark.

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Model report card — 7 Jul 2026 · onthepitch